WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical

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08W CONSON 160813 1800 34.3N 152.1E WPAC 50 985

I'm glad that JTWC finally learns to take a look at ASCAT instead of blindly follows Dvorak.

WDPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING
NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, A 131636Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 TO
50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS
THE MICROWAVE STRUCTURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. TS 08W IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. SSTS WILL DROP SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
12 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR HOKKAIDO,
JAPAN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR
24/
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. A 132122Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. A PARTIAL 132304Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. TS 08W IS TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. SSTS WILL
DROP SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 08W IS CURRENTLY
COMMENCING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR HOKKAIDO, JAPAN. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 40.8N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.8N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 45.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 50.4N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 42.0N 147.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM EAST OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 08W IS INTERACTING WITH AN
ADJACENT BAROCLINIC LOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND 24-25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF CONVECTION. TS
08W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL COMPLETE ETT OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHANTHU) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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