EPAC: JAVIER - Post -Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Only partially.

[Yellow Evan]

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07/1745 UTC   19.3N    106.0W       T2.0/2.0         JAVIER -- East Pacific 

[Yellow Evan]

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EP, 11, 2016080718,   , BEST,   0, 192N, 1062W,  40, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,   90,   90,   30,   60, 1006,  100,  40,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     JAVIER, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 017,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Javier has not become better organized during the day, and the
associated deep convection is ragged-looking and not very
extensive. Based on the earlier surface wind report from
Manzanillo, the current intensity is held at 40 kt. The storm is
experiencing some easterly shear, but gradual intensification while
Javier passes over the warm waters to the south of the Baja
California peninsula seems likely. The official intensity forecast
again follows the SHIPS model guidance.

The cyclone accelerated somewhat today, and the initial motion
estimate is 300/12 kt. Javier is moving along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. In the
next couple of days, the system should gradually turn toward the
right as a trough near California weakens the ridge. The GFS and
ECMWF global models have shifted to the left of their previous
forecasts, so the official forecast is also shifted in that
direction. The official forecast track lies between the GFS/ECMWF
solutions and the latest HWRF model run.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Darvince]

I'm hoping this doesn't form an eyewall because if it does then we're going to see it far exceed the model predictions...

[Bad_Hurricane]

Hurricane Field Program Update – Sunday Aug. 7, 2016
OPERATIONS

Sunday, 7 Aug 2016

NOAA43: Will ferry to Harlingen, TX for possible flights in the East Pacific into Tropical Depression 11. Take off is scheduled for 3PM Eastern. No HRDers will be on this flight.

Monday, 8 Aug 2016

G-IV: Will possibly ferry to Harlingen, TX from MacDill AFB, Tampa, FL for possible flights in the East Pacific over TD11. Take off is tentatively scheduled for 1:30PM Eastern. No HRDers will be on this flight.

NOAA43: Is scheduled to fly a Doppler Wind Lidar and possibly a Coyote research mission. The goals of these missions is to gather data with the Doppler Wind Lidar instrument and to launch the Unmanned aircraft – the Coyote to collect data. Take off is scheduled for 1800 UTC (1PM Central) to and from Harlingen, TX. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

…………………………………………………………………….

For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center web site at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

To access updates on IFEX and other HRD activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the HRD home page at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd

To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ ... d-program/

DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director. Media inquiries should be directed to Erica Rule (305-361-4541) or Erica.Rule@noaa.gov, Evan Forde (305-361-4327) or Evan.Forde@noaa.gov, Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm hoping it wobbles to the West of the projected track up the Baja coast to give us some remnants. Last measurable rain around here was May 7.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it'll make a run at hurricane status at this rate.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[hipshot]

Is this some sort of resurrection of the hurricane last week?

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2016 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 19:40:41 N Lon : 106:51:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 994.6mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.7

Center Temp : -61.5C Cloud Region Temp : -61.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Kingarabian]

Is this some sort of resurrection of the hurricane last week?

I would say this is 60% Earl / 40% a disturbance off the west coast of Mexico.

Earl lost its LLC over the mountains of Mexico thus losing its identity.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
600 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...JAVIER STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 107.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz
southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours
for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 107.3 West. Javier is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, and this motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should pass
offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico today, and approach the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of
Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja
California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through Tuesday morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico in the warning area, and should continue
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected over
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the
warning area by Monday night Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

Has another 24hrs or so before shear increases.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm hoping it wobbles to the West of the projected track up the Baja coast to give us some remnants. Last measurable rain around here was May 7.

You may get rain regardless of the exact track it takes. In face, you may be better off this stays inland.

[HurricaneRyan]

Already up to the letter J, wow.

[Yellow Evan]

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 07/2345 UTC   20.5N    107.0W       T3.0/3.0         JAVIER -- East Pacific 

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! This looks like at least 55 knots to my untrained eye.

[Yellow Evan]

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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  JAVIER      EP112016  08/08/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    49    54    57    60    62    61    58    52    45    38    36    34
V (KT) LAND       45    49    54    57    60    62    61    55    49    35    30    29    28
V (KT) LGEM       45    50    53    56    57    55    52    46    42    32    30   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)        10     9     7     6     8     6     6     7     7    12     9   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     3     2     2     0    -2    -1    -2    -2    -5    -3   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR         73    71    67    64    49    28     5   324   332   323   319   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         29.0  28.8  28.5  28.2  27.8  27.2  26.9  26.6  25.5  24.1  24.2   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   155   152   149   145   141   134   131   129   117   102   103   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.7   0.6   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.5   0.4   0.3  N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)      10     7     6     6     7     4     6     3     4     3     4   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     70    69    69    68    67    68    67    65    57    52    48   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    12    13    13    14    13    12    10     7     6     4  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    59    62    44    26    31    19    18    21     7    18    -3   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        28    41    47    40    36    14    14     9     0     0    11   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -2    -3    -3    -5    -4    -8    -7    -4    -5    -1     0   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        168   253   201   132    78    66    31    30    11   -23   -19   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     20.2  20.8  21.4  21.8  22.2  23.1  24.2  25.4  26.6  27.8  29.0   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    107.3 108.1 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.9 111.6 112.4 113.3 113.9 114.3   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    11    10     8     7     6     6     7     7     7     6     6   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      15    15    12    11     7     2     4     3     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12      CX,CY:  -9/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  374  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           28.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  10.  11.  11.  10.  10.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   6.   6.   4.   3.   3.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.  -1.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -8.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   9.  12.  15.  17.  16.  13.   7.   0.  -7.  -9. -11.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   45. LAT, LON:   20.2   107.3

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER     08/08/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    10.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.53           4.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   103.4      40.3  to  144.5       0.61           3.6
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    12.0       0.0  to   75.9       0.16           1.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     9.1      38.9  to    2.1       0.81           5.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     8.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.61           3.9
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    45.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.63           3.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    38.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.34           1.1
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   128.4     638.0  to  -68.2       0.72           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.5       2.1  to   -1.7       0.42          -0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.8
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  35% is   2.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  24% is   2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  15% is   3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  18% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    15.4%   35.1%   23.6%   16.1%   14.6%   17.6%   16.4%
    Logistic:    29.1%   35.3%   36.1%   22.9%   15.1%   22.4%   10.9%
    Bayesian:     8.7%   16.9%    6.9%    2.6%    0.9%    1.8%    0.2%
   Consensus:    17.7%   29.1%   22.2%   13.9%   10.2%   13.9%    9.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER     08/08/16  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

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EP, 11, 201608080000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 2040N, 10720W,      , 3,  45, 2, 1000, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  DM,   VI, 5, 3030 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T, CSC PSN BSD ON XTRAP OF BAND CURVATURE AND ANIMATION