WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

[Typhoon Hunter]

I think "ferocious" is just the word from the auto translate program that stormwise is using. I would guess upwelling is starting to have an effect by now since it's not looking great.

[NotoSans]

Upwelling have already begun to take its toll, which could be the reason why surrounding convection has weakened significantly today. I won't expect any significant intensification until Lionrock starts to accelerate to the northeast, consistent with what the model guidance has been showing. JMA has lowered their intensity estimate to 80 knots and their forecast intensity to 90 knots, which seem reasonable to me.



Note: The above map is provided by http://weather-models.info/.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, looks like upwelling was a big culprit as time wore on. However, it now appears Lionrock may be finally beginning the movement to the northeast, and an uptick in convection is apparent with the renewed motion.



Lionrock still has good structure to it too, so it could conceivably go up in a hurry.

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM RETAINED A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM EYE AND
EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE HAS BEGUN TO ERODE SOME
OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION, WHICH LINES UP WELL
WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 260935Z 37GHZ SSMIS,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 12W IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
CAUSING THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE. THE CYCLONE IS NOW BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST BOLSTERS UP PRIMARY STEERING. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND OUTFLOW REMAIN ROBUST,
INCREASING VWS AND THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
AND RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, BY
TAU 24, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE A SMALL REBOUND
IN THE INTENSITY TO 100 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TYPHOON LIONROCK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER REFLECTION OF THE STR ANCHORED AT 45N JUST
SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING. INCREASING VWS, COOLING
SSTS, AND TRACK ACROSS THE ISLAND OF HONSHU WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AT TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL
ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND
BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW IN THE SEA OF JAPAN BY END OF FORECAST.
NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD ACROSS THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND
IN THE LATERAL SPEEDS OF EACH SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THESE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2016 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 23:29:04 N Lon : 132:19:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 948.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : +13.9C Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 93km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.1 degrees

****************************************************

[1900hurricane]

I think JTWC's intensity forecast will bust low. This is already well on its way to recovering and then some.

[1900hurricane]

Hot off the press.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2016 Time : 201000 UTC
Lat : 23:39:02 N Lon : 132:50:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 943.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -9.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 116km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.1 degrees

****************************************************

[1900hurricane]

[stormwise]

Your blog is excellent info.




Quite a wide difference between the EC and GFS.

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM WEST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
RAGGED EYE. A 262206Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW ENCIRCLING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY BETWEEN
T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
TROUGH PASSING OVER JAPAN PROVIDING SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY BUT HAS RELAXED A BIT THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS FAVORABLE DUE TO THE DOMINANT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY TY 12W IS
TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TO
REFLECT A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK AND LATER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST, TY 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 36 GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO DETERIORATE AND A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVELS TAKES HOLD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ANOTHER MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND STEERING WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
A WEAK RIDGE EAST OF HOKKAIDO BEYOND TAU 72 TAKING THE TRACK OF 12W
NORTHWESTWARD. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL AID IN OUTFLOW, BUT WILL
BE OFFSET BY HIGHER WIND SHEAR VALUES AND LOW SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. AS THE TRACK TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD TY 12W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH AND
BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER, THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 48. THE NAVGEM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A TRACK FURTHER EAST AND STALLING JUST NORTH
OF 35 DEGREES DUE TO A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
JAPANESE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL SHOWING A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. OF NOTE, EACH OF THE MODEL TRACKERS KEEP TY 12 EAST OF
YOKOSUKA. THE FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THE WEAKENING STEERING RIDGE
(EVIDENT IN NAVGEM AND GFS) RESULTING IN A TRACK SHIFT MORE
EASTWARD, YET MAINTAINS THE RIDGE STRONG ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE TRACK
NORTHWEST (A CHARACTERISTIC OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). DUE TO THE
LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

JTWC has shifted their forecast track eastward in respect of the GFS solutions, while JMA continues to lean towards the ECMWF solutions. Either one of the forecasts will bust, and it will be interesting to see which one verifies in the end.



In terms of the intensity forecast, I agree that JTWC will bust low. The convective structure has significantly improved after Lionrock begins moving to the northeast. Model guidance has also consistently suggested improving poleward outflow, which would aid further intensification. I would expect at least gradual intensification in the near term.

[stormwise]

TY 1610 (Lionrock)
Issued at 03:40 UTC, 27 August 2016

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 27 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°50' (23.8°)
E133°25' (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 28 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°25' (26.4°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N29°55' (29.9°)
E141°10' (141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°35' (34.6°)
E143°25' (143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 560 km (300 NM)

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/GduYeQX.jpg[img]

STUNNING.

[stormwise]

A few more snap shots for scrap books.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 270324

A. TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK)

B. 27/0300Z

C. 23.71N

D. 133.55E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT (NO
BANDING) OF 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:

26/2206Z 23.55N 132.98E SSMS

26/2145Z 23.63N 132.95E SSMS


DREW

[euro6208]

12W LIONROCK 160827 0600 24.0N 133.9E WPAC 115 937

Category 4...

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 742 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A 23-NM ROUND EYE, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. A 270634Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE COMPACT CORE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR
33N 150E. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 6.0 (115 KNOTS). TY 12W IS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD TROUGHING
TO THE NORTH, WHICH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND
ALLOWED THE NER TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NER THROUGH TAU 48. TY LIONROCK IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY NEAR 115 KNOTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PHASE OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS
DIVERGE WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK DESPITE CONSISTENT DEPICTION
OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES (MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
POSITION OF THE STRONG RIDGE NORTHEAST OF JAPAN).
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 12W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE OVER NORTHERN
JAPAN AND TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND COOLER SST. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN HONSHU AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VWS. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT WITH THREE DISCRETE
CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS. THE FIRST CLUSTER DEPICTS A RAPID RE-CURVE
TRACK OVER CENTRAL JAPAN AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST ASIA, AND INCLUDES
THE JENS, ECMWF AND UKMET TRACKERS. IN GENERAL, THESE TRACKERS DRIVE
THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MERGE THE
SYSTEM AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW INTO A STRONG OCCLUDED LOW. THE
SECOND CLUSTER INDICATES A SLOWER RE-CURVE OVER OR NEAR NORTHERN
JAPAN AND INCLUDES NAVGEM, EEMN AND COAMPS-TC. THESE MODELS PROVIDE
A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS MORE REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE RE-CURVE POINT
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RATHER THAN DIRECTLY INTO THE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL JAPAN.
THE THIRD CLUSTER INDICATES A NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND
QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN
JAPAN AND INCLUDES GFDN, GFS AND HWRF. THESE MODELS APPEAR TO STALL
THE SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
MAJOR TROUGH OVER JAPAN AND ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY FAVORS THE SECOND CLUSTER OF MODEL
TRACKERS, WHICH PRESENT A REALISTIC SCENARIO, HOWEVER, ERRATIC
PERFORMANCE OF SEVERAL MODELS IS ALSO CREATING MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, BEYOND
TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[stormwise]

LIONROCK - Typhoon 19:00-20:00 Saturday 27 EST.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the upper low to the northeast of Lionrock is beginning to open up a second outflow channel now. After leveling off again, this might give Lionrock the potential for another bump up in intensity since it appeared CDO convection in the northern part of the circulation had begun to struggle.