WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#121 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:21 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:That wild intensity forecast from JMA really caught my eye. They're being much less conservative this year with intensity estimates and forecasts.


Plans on following this to mainland Japan? :lol: I know Japan is no stranger to typhoons, but I think it's been a while since a major storm (Cat3+) hit the mainland.
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#122 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:50 am

WDPN34 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A GRADUALLY FILLING EYE WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 242231Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TY 12W CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DESPITE SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES TO THE SOUTH
AND TO THE WEST. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 6.0
(PGTW) AND 5.5 (KNES AND RJTD). HOWEVER, THE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM
PGTW HAS COME DOWN TO 5.0 GIVEN THE RECENT FILLING OF THE EYE. THUS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS. RADIAL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (5
TO 15 KNOTS) BUT IS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE
SYMMETRY OF TY 12W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH
SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION INDICATED AFTER TY 12W INITIALLY TURNS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
B. TY 12W WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BUT IS
BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN. AFTER A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY DRIFT FROM
TAUS 12 TO 24, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD, GIVING WAY TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA AND ACCELERATE TY 12W TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ALL
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS 180-DEGREE TURN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER THE TURN WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL HORIZONTAL
DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TURN, THE EXACT DIRECTION OF THE
INITIAL TURN WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AS THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVENTUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IN THE SHORT TERM,
TY 12W WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FROM
TAU 36 TO 72, SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE DIGGING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AND JGSM ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTING A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH, WHEREAS MOST OF THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL
LIKELY CLOSE THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 72. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH,
REMAINING TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS, BUT IT MUST BE STRONGLY
EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#123 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:52 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2016 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 23:23:46 N Lon : 130:57:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 947.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.1 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.6 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#124 Postby shah83 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:53 am

Typhoon Goni sez hi!
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#125 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:46 am

Lionrock has reintensified to 110 knots.

WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 23.5N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT


While the JMA mets forecast steady strengthening until the weekend, the forecasters at JTWC expect slight weakening to occur over the next few days with a short period of reintensification during the weekend. (Note the image is from the 03Z package, but the 09Z forecast shows a similar pattern, just a tad stronger.) :darrow:

Image

Edit: Updated post to include 09Z image. :darrow:

Image
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#126 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:59 am

WDPN34 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM EYE AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG BIAS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. BASED ON THE
EYE-MOVEMENT, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND BEGUN A
TIGHT CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.2 TO T6.0. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W WILL BEGIN A SLOW NORTHEAST POLEWARD TRACK AS THE STR TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ASSUMES PRIMARY STEERING. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND OUTFLOW REMAIN ROBUST,
INCREASING VWS WILL OFFSET THESE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND RESULT IN A
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48, INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SMALL
REBOUND IN THE INTENSITY TO 105 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TYPHOON LIONROCK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER REFLECTION OF THE STR ANCHORED AT 45N JUST SOUTH
OF KAMCHATKA BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
REVERSAL IN THE TRACK TO A NORTHEAST POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND THE LATERAL
SPEEDS OF EACH SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THESE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:49 am

I would hate to be on a boat under this. It"s stalled for days. Can't imagine the winds, rains, and waves.
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#128 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:11 am

euro6208 wrote:I would hate to be on a boat under this. It"s stalled for days. Can't imagine the winds, rains, and waves.

Sea would be phenomenal scary

Image
big hook.
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#129 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:34 am

Everything here feels so calm with a possible record storm and a extremely intense typhoon for Japan. They are so prepared.

Reading the 99L thread on here and some other websites for currently just an invest, it's all doom and panic.

The comparison is something.
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#130 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:46 am

euro6208 wrote:Everything here feels so calm with a possible record storm and a extremely intense typhoon for Japan. They are so prepared.

Reading the 99L thread on here and some other websites for currently just an invest, it's all doom and panic.

The comparison is something.

Yeah there is already 93 pages of discussion and so far, no official closed defined circulation on that EW/invest.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





TY 1610 (Lionrock)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 25 August 2016

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 25 August>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N23°30' (23.5°)
E131°00' (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 26 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35' (23.6°)
E131°30' (131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 August>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N24°30' (24.5°)
E133°05' (133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°50' (26.8°)
E136°20' (136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 29 August>
Center position of probability circle N31°30' (31.5°)
E140°55' (140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 August>
Center position of probability circle N37°05' (37.1°)
E137°40' (137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Radius of probability circle 600 km (325 NM)
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#131 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:06 am

Latest microwave pass suggests some inner core issues. As mentioned by @1900hurricane, Lionrock have ingested some dry air and it may take some time to mix it out. Personally I find the intensity forecast from JTWC more reasonable (although it may be a bit conservative). Lionrock may need some time to re-organize its core before re-intensifying. Still skeptical about the intensity forecast from the global models - they have a bad habit of over-intensifying storms at this latitude.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#132 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:12 am

I think the ingestion of dry air may have also helped spur on eyewall replacement. It's only in its beginning stages now, but you can see the trace of the outer eyewall in the Ash RGB image below.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#133 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:51 am

The convective structure has once again improved and the eye is popping out again. Looks like it has mixed out some dry air, but I would still like to wait for the next microwave pass to examine the inner core structure.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#134 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:59 am

How do you access real-time data like that Dvorak imagery for the Himawari-8 floater window?
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#135 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:23 am

1900hurricane wrote:How do you access real-time data like that Dvorak imagery for the Himawari-8 floater window?

I use this link: http://weather-models.info/latest/image ... ir/bd0.png. It provides real-time rapid scan floaters.
There are many other useful resources on this website: http://weather-models.info/. It is in Japanese though.
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#136 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:08 pm

For those who are interested, I've posted a new blog entry entirely dedicated to my latest thoughts on Typhoon Lionrock.

Mid-Week Lionrock Special! Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 25, 2016
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#137 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:08 pm

NotoSans wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:How do you access real-time data like that Dvorak imagery for the Himawari-8 floater window?

I use this link: http://weather-models.info/latest/image ... ir/bd0.png. It provides real-time rapid scan floaters.
There are many other useful resources on this website: http://weather-models.info/. It is in Japanese though.

Thanks! Looks like it's time to give Google Translate some work. :P
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#138 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:18 pm

Wow, what I assume to be eyewall replacement is going by seemingly very quickly.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#139 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:04 pm

Image

WDPN34 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TY 12W, WITH THE EYE DISAPPEARING AND
REAPPEARING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE AID OF EIR
ANIMATIONS AND 251801Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 ACROSS ALL AGENCIES. OVERALL, TY 12W HAS STEADILY
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE LAST 24
HOURS, DESPITE MINOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM
DUE TO AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED
OVER CHINA. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESTRICT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT IS
BEGINNING TO RETREAT TO THE WEST. TY 12W HAS BEEN EXHIBITING SOME
ERRATIC MOTION DUE TO ITS POSITION IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, EXCEPT A SHIFT OF THE TRACK WESTWARD
FROM TAU 96 TO 120.
B. TY 12W CONTINUED TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHWEST SINCE THE LAST
WARNING, BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS IMMINENT. SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM GIVEN THE RESTRICTED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK ALBEIT PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS TY 12W. AS THE STR AXIS TO THE NORTH RETREATS WESTWARD OVER
CHINA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE BAIKAL WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG OVER
THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL FORCE TY 12W TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY FROM TAU 36
TO 48 AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OPENS UP.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE SEA OF JAPAN ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP, NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH STEERING TY 12W TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH.
MEANWHILE, A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK, WHICH WILL DRIVE TY 12W TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
EVENTUAL TURN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING FOR A
POTENTIAL IMPACT TO JAPAN. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TURN WILL OCCUR, WITH THE GFS, HWRF, AND GFDN
BEING OUTLIERS WITH TRACKS THAT CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN
THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SSTS, AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF INTERACTIONS WITH THE DEEP, HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER WIND FIELD OF A TRANSITIONING TROPICAL
SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE CONSIDERED. FOR NOW, THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Typhoon

#140 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:05 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2016 Time : 201000 UTC
Lat : 23:13:00 N Lon : 130:47:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 963.0mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.5 degrees

****************************************************
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