WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

96W INVEST 160814 1200 19.0N 160.0E WPAC 15 NA

[euro6208]

EURO develops this into a 995mb storm in condemn with another system, 997mb, just east of the Marianas. Looses it and gets absorbed. The latter becomes a typhoon...

GFS similiar...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 160.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 315NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 142248Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAKLY-DEFINED,
FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE BROAD LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE,
A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.8N 160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY-ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
15033Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAKLY-DEFINED, FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE,
A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8N
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BUT STILL BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 150827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS INCREASING FLARING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIORNMENT
WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS
AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (HENCE, A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY
257 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 152314Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON A 152315Z
50KM METOP-A ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE CENTER
AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS EAST OF THAN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TUTT
CELL SIMULTANEOUSLY CREATING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTED BY RIDGING
EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[1900hurricane]

It looks to me like that gyre that I was doubting in previous runs is beginning to develop pretty much atop this invest.

[NotoSans]

JMA now classifies it as a TD with 30-knot winds.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 22.5N 160.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 162103
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 16/2030Z

C. 25.2N

D. 160.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 566
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE, ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THREE SEPARATE AND
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTICES SPINNING AROUND A CENTROID, WHICH IS
BEING TRACKED AS THE LLCC OF 96W. A 162252Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, BUT ONLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF 96W
ALONG WITH A TIGHT COUPLING WITH THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, THIS
SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. TYPICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS
CANNOT BE APPLIED TO THIS SYSTEM, SINCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUE STRONGLY DEPENDS ON THE POSITION RELATIVE TO THE LLCC, WITH
LOW SHEAR VALUES (5 TO 10 KNOTS) BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGIONS
OF THE VORTEX THAT ARE MORE VERTICALLY STACKED, WHEREAS HIGH SHEAR
VALUES (20 TO 40 KNOTS) BEING ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS OF ENHANCED
OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM, CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED. THE LARGE WIND FIELD WITH
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 170300
TCSWNP

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 26.8N

D. 158.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM FEATURES SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS TROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[talkon]

This is a TD by JMA.

WWJP25 RJTD 171200
...
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 27.5N 155.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 162.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 566
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE, ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THREE SEPARATE AND
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTICES SPINNING AROUND A CENTROID, WHICH IS
BEING TRACKED AS THE LLCC OF 96W. A 162252Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, BUT ONLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF 96W
ALONG WITH A TIGHT COUPLING WITH THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, THIS
SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. TYPICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS
CANNOT BE APPLIED TO THIS SYSTEM, SINCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUE STRONGLY DEPENDS ON THE POSITION RELATIVE TO THE LLCC, WITH
LOW SHEAR VALUES (5 TO 10 KNOTS) BEING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGIONS
OF THE VORTEX THAT ARE MORE VERTICALLY STACKED, WHEREAS HIGH SHEAR
VALUES (20 TO 40 KNOTS) BEING ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS OF ENHANCED
OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM, CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED. THE LARGE WIND FIELD WITH
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 171745
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 28.0N

D. 154.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EXHIBITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WARRANTING
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 FOR A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171721Z AUG 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 171730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.1N 154.5E TO 31.0N 144.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 28.4N 153.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.0N 159.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY
700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE; HOWEVER, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT
IT IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO A MORE SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS GOING THROUGH A MOISTENING PHASE WITH
INCREASING VALUES (55-65MM) WITHIN A MORE SYMMETRIC CORE. A 171841Z
GPM COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LOW, PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SYSTEM,
IS NOW OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW
NOW PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(INVEST 95W) LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.0E.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 172130

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NW OF WAKE IS)

B. 17/2100Z

C. 28.74N

D. 152.32E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. AREA STARTING TO SHOW
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, WITH A MORE DEFINED LLCC, WITH CNVCTN
BROADLY WRAPPING INTO IT AT A .35 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

Another one! Straight to Tropical Storm!

12W TWELVE 160818 0000 29.0N 151.9E WPAC 40 993

[NotoSans]

JTWC finally looks at data. Their intensity estimate seems much more reasonable this time.
Wonder why the JMA hasn't named it yet.

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR
01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CENTER. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 172325Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE SHOWED A CONTRACTING LLCC WITH 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 40NM OF
THE CENTER AND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A SERIES OF
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
AND DRY AIR PRESENT ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LOW, PREVIOUSLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, IS NOW OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC OUTFLOW NOW PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM PGTW BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WITH NUMEROUS 40 KNOT WIND
BARBS. TS 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEYOND TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A SECOND SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER CHINA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM WHICH, COMBINED WILL INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST INTENSIFICATION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING DUE
TO THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TD 10W.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 12W WILL FLATTEN OUT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR OVER CHINA RETREATS DUE TO A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
PHASE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE THE
CYCLONE COULD CLOSE WITHIN 400NM OF TD 10W. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE
TRACK WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[kala]

Wonder why the JMA hasn't named it yet.

Perhaps the subtropical characteristics have kept them from upping it?

With more convection near the center, which it's getting, I'm hoping they'll name it soon.