WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

[stormwise]

i think closer to 130kts atm.

[NotoSans]

Just did a Dvorak on this and obtained a T5.5/6.0. No data to support 130 kt attm.

[stormwise]

Just did a Dvorak on this and obtained a T5.5/6.0. No data to support 130 kt attm.

ADT satellite and Dvorak intensity estimates are notorious @underestimating Pin-eye cyclones.

[NotoSans]

Doesn't really look like a pinhole eye on both visible and microwave imagery. The eye is struggling to clear out. 110 kt looks fine to me.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, the eye is small, but it also doesn't have very clear definition. Himawari-8's high spatial resolution would be picking up warmer temps otherwise. To me, it looks like Lionrock ingested a small amount of dry air. It wasn't much, but enough to put a lid on the system for now.

[stormwise]

2016AUG24 214000 5.4 949.4 99.6 5.4 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -23.14 -72.88 EYE/P -99 IR 35.0 23.63 -131.11 SPRL HIM-8 29.8
2016AUG24 220000 5.4 949.4 99.6 5.4 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -22.37 -72.53 EYE/P -99 IR 35.0 23.62 -131.10 SPRL HIM-8 29.8
2016AUG24 224000 5.5 947.5 102.0 5.5 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -24.09 -72.05 EYE/P -99 IR 34.6 23.60 -131.08 SPRL HIM-8 29.7

I always look @ the highest intensity estimated with EYE/P, smaller the eye more intense the eyewall core wind speed.

[euro6208]

Just did a Dvorak on this and obtained a T5.5/6.0. No data to support 130 kt attm.

ADT satellite and Dvorak intensity estimates are notorious @underestimating Pin-eye cyclones.

I think it's closer to 135 knots. Looks can be deceiving aka Joaquin 2015. Most ugly Cat 4 in that basin.

[NotoSans]

00Z best track down to 105 kt.

12W LIONROCK 160825 0000 23.4N 131.1E WPAC 105 944

[dexterlabio]

Its eye has already degraded. It may have been a borderline Cat4 yesterday but it didn't look like a super typhoon to me. Although there is still some time left to recover.

[1900hurricane]

Its eye has already degraded. It may have been a borderline Cat4 yesterday but it didn't look like a super typhoon to me. Although there is still some time left to recover.

Definitely this. While dry air did get ingested, it was not bad at all, and the core remains very much intact, which can be seen in the visible image below. It's also worth noting that many reliable members of guidance don't have Lionrock achieving peak strength for a couple more days.

[stormwise]

About only 2 hours ago roughly this advisory.

2016 typhoon No. 10, relating to information No. 49 (position)
2016 August 25, 09 at 45 minutes Japan Meteorological Agency forecast section announcement

(heading)
　very strong typhoon No. 10 is, the south about 260 kilometers Minami Daito Island
we go to the south-west at a speed that is slow.

(Text)
　very strong typhoon No. 10 is, 25 days 9 sometimes
Minami Daito Island south about 260 kilometers of the
north latitude 23 degrees 30 minutes, in the east longitude 131 degrees 05 minutes,
we go to the south-west at a speed that was slowly .
Air pressure in the center is 945 hectopascals
center maximum wind speed of 45 meters around,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed 60 meters in
the within 90 kilometers radius from the center
has become a storm of more than 25 meters wind speed.
In addition, within a 220 km radius from the center
has been blowing in the strong wind is more than 15 meters wind speed.

　The center of the typhoon, 12 hours and 25 days 21 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island south about 270 kilometers of the
north latitude 23 degrees 25 minutes, around the 131 degrees 05 minutes east longitude
is expected to reach a radius of 60 km within the circle.
The center of the atmospheric pressure is 940 hectopascals
center maximum wind speed of 45 meters around,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 65 meters.
Is within 170 kilometers radius from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　24 hours 26 days 9 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island south about 260 kilometers of the
north latitude 23 degrees 30 minutes, around the 131 degrees 35 minutes east longitude
is expected to reach a radius of 110 km within the circle.
930 hectopascals of atmospheric pressure center
maximum wind speed of 50 meters near the center,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 70 meters.
Is within 240 kilometers radius from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　48 hours 27 days 9 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island southeast about 240 kilometers of the
north latitude 24 degrees 10 minutes, around the 132 degrees 50 minutes east longitude
reached a radius of 200 km within the circle,
is expected to become a ferocious typhoon.
The center of the atmospheric pressure is 920 hectopascals
center maximum wind speed of 55 meters around,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 75 meters.
It is within a radius of 330 kilometers from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　72 hours 28 days 9 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island coastal waters of
north latitude 26 degrees 00 minutes, around the 135 degrees 25 minutes east longitude
is expected to reach within a circle with a radius of 310 km.
930 hectopascals of atmospheric pressure center
maximum wind speed of 50 meters near the center,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 70 meters.
It is within a radius of 440 kilometers from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　In addition, the probability that the center of the typhoon to enter the forecast circle is 70%.

Please note the future of typhoon information.

[1900hurricane]

Wow, JMA is straight up forecasting doomsday pretty much.

TY 1610 (Lionrock)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 25 August 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 August>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N23°30' (23.5°)
E131°05' (131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slow
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25' (23.4°)
E131°05' (131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°30' (23.5°)
E131°35' (131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 August>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N24°10' (24.2°)
E132°50' (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 August>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°00' (26.0°)
E135°25' (135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[stormwise]

Much in line with what the EC has been forecasting.


EC 12Z @120HRS

[1900hurricane]

It's kind of hard to tell unless you're familiar with JMA's Koba scale, but that's actually a very aggressive intensity forecast from them. 105 kt is their T7.0/Category 5 equivalent intensity.

[NotoSans]

Model guidance is still not in agreement about the timing of the northwestward turn. Particularly speaking, the latest GFS run does not even show the turn. JMA seems to be leaning towards the Euro and its own model while the JTWC seems to be following the multi-model consensus. Big conflicts in the intensity forecast as well. JTWC is calling for short-term weakening, followed by a brief re-intensification. Meanwhile, the JMA continues to be aggressive on this one, and is now forecasting a violent typhoon.

[stormwise]

It's kind of hard to tell unless you're familiar with JMA's Koba scale, but that's actually a very aggressive intensity forecast from them. 105 kt is their T7.0/Category 5 equivalent intensity.

As a rule of thumb i have heard its fair compassion to go off JTWC's gust speed kts when making a compassion with JMA.

[1900hurricane]

The eye might be trying to warm agin. Outflow boundaries can be seen to the NE of the CDO, so there is still some dry air around, but Lionrock looks like it's trying to resume strengthening.



It's also interesting to note both how small Lionrock actually is and how far south it has managed to sink. The system's center is actually just south of the Tropic of Cancer right now, right on the edge of the transition tropics.

[dexterlabio]

Another credit to Euro perhaps for that steep southwest dip. I remember last week I thought Euro was nuts showing that kind of track.

[stormwise]

divergence aloft to shift mass air don't get much better than displayed on the plot.

[Typhoon Hunter]

That wild intensity forecast from JMA really caught my eye. They're being much less conservative this year with intensity estimates and forecasts.