ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2016081400, , BEST, 0, 104N, 162W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081406, , BEST, 0, 101N, 172W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 183W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081418, , BEST, 0, 98N, 194W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081500, , BEST, 0, 97N, 204W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118140

[NDG]

12z Euro showed not much problem with shear and dry air for the next 4-5 days.

[Kingarabian]

Euro seems persistent on this developing.

[cycloneye]

Model runs here.

[gatorcane]

Convection is persisting unlike any wave we have seen come off Africa this season so far:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[wxman57]

Its best chance of development is over the next 3-4 days. Beyond then, wind shear increases along its path. It's particularly strong from the Gulf through the Caribbean this week.

[Kazmit]

SHIPs and TCLP show this becoming a Cat 1.

[CrazyC83]

Here, fishy fishy fishy! (Unless it recurves into the Azores)

[CrazyC83]

Its best chance of development is over the next 3-4 days. Beyond then, wind shear increases along its path. It's particularly strong from the Gulf through the Caribbean this week.

I doubt it will get anywhere near those areas looking at early models - I think recurve before 50W is most likely.

[Blown Away]

Its best chance of development is over the next 3-4 days. Beyond then, wind shear increases along its path. It's particularly strong from the Gulf through the Caribbean this week.

What if 98L moves North of the Caribbean?

[OuterBanker]

This well developed, this far east and north the possible wife of Shrek is destined to be a fish anyway.

[USTropics]

18z Prob. % of TC Genesis:

[hurricanes1234]

The wife of Shrek


That's exactly what I thought when I first saw the name Fiona on the list.

[NDG]

Hard to say what the windshear forecast will be over the Caribbean after 5 days from now, but if an UL anticyclone accompanies 98L I am sure windshear will relax over the Caribbean just like it did for Earl, ULLs/TUTTs north of the Caribbean have been retrograding westward all season long, have not been permanent like last year.
That's even if 98L survives the central Atlantic and if it even tracks through the Caribbean.

[NDG]

SHIPS shows not much problem with windshear, except for marginal warm enough waters by days 4-5 and drier conditions by then.

Code: Select all

* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL982016  08/15/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    22    25    28    34    42    48    52    53    58    64    66
V (KT) LAND       20    21    22    25    28    34    42    48    52    53    58    64    66
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    21    21    22    24    26    30    34    37    39    42    44
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13    18    15    15    13     8     7     9     8     7     4     7    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     5     2     2    -1     0     0    -3    -4    -4     1     1     2     0
SHEAR DIR         54    39    33    44    51    69    88   142   196   233   298   287   260
SST (C)         27.2  27.3  27.5  27.6  27.7  28.0  28.0  27.6  26.7  26.2  26.3  26.3  26.5
POT. INT. (KT)   127   129   131   132   133   137   137   132   121   116   117   118   120
ADJ. POT. INT.   127   130   133   132   132   137   135   128   117   111   112   113   115
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.1  -0.1   0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     6     6     6     6     5     5     5     5     5     5     6
700-500 MB RH     82    79    76    73    72    69    69    70    71    67    63    57    50
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     8     9    11    10     9     9     7     6     5     6     7  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    81    82    85    85    83    72    67    62    58    49    52    54    52
200 MB DIV        42    22     7     5    18     4    15     8    26    32    35    35    13
700-850 TADV       0    -7   -10   -13   -15   -13    -8    -4    -3     0    -2     7     8
LAND (KM)        481   592   716   836   937  1123  1253  1388  1547  1782  2030  1934  1780
LAT (DEG N)      9.7   9.7   9.8   9.9  10.0  10.7  11.9  13.4  14.7  15.6  16.3  16.5  16.9
LONG(DEG W)     20.4  21.6  22.9  24.1  25.1  27.0  28.7  30.3  31.9  34.1  36.4  38.9  41.6
STM SPEED (KT)    11    12    12    11    10    11    10    10    11    12    12    13    13
HEAT CONTENT      13    11    11    18    19    11    12     9     6     4     5     3     6

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  598  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            4.1

[gatorcane]

NDG I agree. It is too early to know the fate of 98l. The GFS and ECMWF differ by at least 700-800 miles as far as where 98l will be in a week's time. Not only that, the ECMWF as of the 00z Friday run just two days ago showed zero development of 98l due to hostile conditions now look what it is showing. That tells me the forecast is highly uncertain here a few days out let alone after a week's time. The question is even if 98l encounters the more hostile conditions, can it find better conditions further down the road?

[USTropics]

ECMWF product:

[cycloneye]

NDG I agree. It is too early to know the fate of 98l. The GFS and ECMWF differ by at least 700-800 miles as far as where 98l will be in a week's time. Not only that the ECMWF as of the 00z Friday run just two days ago showed zero development of 98l due to hostile conditions now look what it is showing. That should tell you the forecast is highly uncertain here. The question is even if 98l encounters the more hostile conditions, can it find better conditions further down the road?

Not saying it will be a cat 4-5 but an example of that was Andrew in 1992.

[drezee]

The structure is strung out even though you see the hot tower. It is a likely mess underneath. The popcorn thunderstorms ahead are not banding. It is still very low level driven.

[Yellow Evan]

If this can get going soon (wind shear is moderate), this has a good chance at surviving the direr air since shear is low.