WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby talkon » Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:39 am

Another invest tagged.
99W INVEST 160817 1200 15.2N 140.6E WPAC 25 998


Classified as a Tropical Depression per JMA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 15N 141E ENE SLOWLY.


Also T1.5 per SAB.
TXPQ25 KNES 171507
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 15.3N

D. 141.4E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
SHEARED SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A COLD OVERCAST LARGER THAN
1.5 DEGREES. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER FIX POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO


Image

This means we have 4 active invests in the WPAC (and all four are JMA TDs), and also means that "99W" is reused within 8.5 days. This must be some kind of record (10 invests in just over a week).
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Re: WPAC: TD 99W

#2 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 17, 2016 12:58 pm

TCFA issued.

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 139.8E TO 17.6N 148.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 140.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 171143Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE INTO
THE 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE TO THE SOUTH. AN OLDER 170843Z
CORIOLIS PASS SHOWED SHALLOW FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE FEEDING THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED JUST WEST OF CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
10 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181600Z.//
NNNN

Looks classifiable to me.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TD 99W

#3 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 17, 2016 2:07 pm

JTWC upgrades to TD 10W.

10W TEN 160817 1800 15.3N 141.3E WPAC 30 998
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Re: WPAC: TD 99W

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:18 pm

Yea definitely classifiable.
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Re: WPAC: TD 99W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 4:11 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON SURGE. A
171535Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. A 171143Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS. AN OLDER 170843Z CORIOLIS PASS SHOWED SHALLOW FRAGMENTED
BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE FEEDING THE BULK OF CONVECTION
SHEARED JUST WEST OF CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VWS BEING OFFSET
BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH INDICATION OF A POINT SOURCE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 153.9E WHICH COULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT. TD 10W IS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, TD 10W WILL
BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE; HOWEVER, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY
TAU 120, TD 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN HONSHU, JAPAN. LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS POLEWARD AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. VERY LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE VAGUELY SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT TRACK SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THE STEERING PATTERN SETUP IS
EXTREMELY COMPLICATED GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 36. ADDITIONALLY, THE COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST CHALLENGING.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TD 99W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 4:15 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 171507
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 15.3N

D. 141.4E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
SHEARED SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A COLD OVERCAST LARGER THAN
1.5 DEGREES. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER FIX POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:22 pm

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 180106
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102016
1100 AM CHST THU AUG 18 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 142.1E

ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 235 MILES WEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST...085 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING EAST AT 9 MPH. 10W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...TURNING NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TODAY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:43 pm

Forecasting how monsoon trough breakdown will evolve when it's feeding into a gyre is notoriously difficult. 10W is a great example of that. This wasn't even tagged as an invest 24 hours ago.
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:39 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 10 FEET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON SURGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN
THE MSI LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
EASTERLY VWS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH
INDICATION OF A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THERE IS HIGH SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 151.9E WHICH COULD HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. TD 10W IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST DUE TO INCREASED GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM 12W CREATING A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, TD 10W WILL
BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE; HOWEVER, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY
TAU 120, TD 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN HONSHU, JAPAN. LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS POLEWARD AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM
TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM 12W THAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE THAN 600NM APART
WHICH WILL CAUSE A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE COMPETING
STEERING MECHANISMS. THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE THE
CYCLONES COULD CLOSE WITHIN 400NM. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE TRACK
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TD 10W WILL WEAKEN. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IMPROVED; HOWEVER, GFS AND HWRF DO SHOW THE SECOND
SCENARIO OCCURRING. AEMN (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
SLOWING DOWN AND THEN TURNING POLEWARD WHICH INDICATES THAT THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:34 am

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 180351 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102016
200 PM CHST THU AUG 18 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...
PAGAN AND AGRIHAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...
PAGAN AND AGRIHAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 142.6E

ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 210 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 205 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 205 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST...085 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
10W WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 142.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING EAST AT 9 MPH. 10W IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK LATER TODAY...TURNING
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. 10W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TODAY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:22 am

000
WGMY60 PGUM 180558
FFAMY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST THU AUG 18 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH PATTERN
WILL BRING EXCESSIVE RAIN TO THE MARIANAS...

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS.
AS 10W TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
INCREASING SHOWERS MAY BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE REGION THAT
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

GUZ001>004-181800-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.A.0001.160818T0558Z-160819T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
358 PM CHST THU AUG 18 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS GUAM...ROTA...SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* TD 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* ROADS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD BECOME TEMPORARILY FLOODED.
LOCATIONS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND CLOSE TO STREAMS WILL BE AT
RISK OF FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. IF ANY STORM DRAINS NEAR
YOU ARE CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS...CLEAN THEM OUT TO MINIMIZE THE
IMPACTS OF ANY FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS...
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WATER LEVELS.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:26 am

TPPN12 PGTW 180629

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)

B. 18/0600Z

C. 15.62N

D. 142.87E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0533Z 15.67N 142.95E MMHS


MARTINEZ

TXPQ25 KNES 180309
TCSWNP

A. 10W (NONAME)

B. 18/0230Z

C. 15.3N

D. 142.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...TIGHTLY DEFINED CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES NEAR SMALL COLD
OVERCAST YIELDS SHEAR MATRIX DT=2.0. MET=1.5 WITH PT=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby doraboy » Thu Aug 18, 2016 4:03 am

Predicted by TCFS(TC Formation Simulator) V1.07
Initial time:2016/08/18 06UTC

PS:The forecast is based on my own "model" (a small C++ program I wrote)

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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:12 am

EURO doesn't intensify this further. Weakens as it moves to the northeast...

GFS similiar...
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:08 am

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 181307
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102016
1100 PM CHST THU AUG 18 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WEST OF ANATAHAN MOVING NORTHEAST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...
PAGAN AND AGRIHAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 143.4E

ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 185 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 205 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...060 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. 10W IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN FORWARD
SPEED THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. 10W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

W AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:29 am

10W looks to be on the cusp of an upgrade. The recent ASCAT pass does reveal both a 35 and 40 kt vector. I'd probably throw the 40 kt vector out due to thunderstorm activity and mesoscale influences. The 35 kt might be questionable too (it's in the same area), but considering system structure and overall organization, I'd probably set the intensity to 35 kt, although given uncertainties, 30 kt is still perfectly reasonable too.

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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:45 am

With all this recent activity, my eyeballs got used to this eastward/northeastward traveling systems instead of watching traveling west or northwest systems coming to the Marianas. :lol:

Guam and the Marianas in a gap of this Trough/TD and 98W/12W...However heavy rains and winds should continue early morning as NWS Guam has issued a flash flood advisory earlier today with grounds already saturated...
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby doraboy » Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:52 am

Predicted by TCFS(TC Formation Simulator) V1.07
Initial time:2016/08/18 12UTC

PS:The forecast is based on my own "model" (a small C++ program I wrote)

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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:02 am

I'd take the rains and flooding from this gyre/monsoon trough anyday from a TS/TY but for the winds, that's a different story. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:30 pm

Seems to have rapidly developed over the past few hours. Bursting convection is now obscuring the LLCC. This is a TS now and should be named IMO.

And the JTWC provides much more reasonable estimate than the JMA this time.

TPPN12 PGTW 181829

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)

B. 18/1800Z

C. 16.65N

D. 143.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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