WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Dave C » Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:10 pm

I ran a shortwave imagery loop and the circ. center is on the western edge of the convection.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:15 pm

ASCAT shows a swath of 50-kt wind barbs several hours ago. Given the low bias of ASCAT and recent consolidation, 60-65 kt sounds good to me right now.
Image

Mindulle may hit the Tokyo Metropolis directly according to the latest forecast from the JMA.
Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:41 pm

Radar presentation doesn't look very impressive though. Mindulle seems to be developing a large eye but the western side of the eyewall remains pretty weak.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:18 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A 21119Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
OUTFLOW FROM TS 12W (LIONROCK) TO THE WEST IS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH-LATITUDE MONSOON GYRE
AND IS BEING STEERED BY A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR EXTENSION WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND DUE TO THE BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 12W. A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS (28 CELSIUS) AND DIMINISHING BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 12W, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 PRIOR TO
LANDFALL INTO THE ISLAND OF HONSHU NEAR TOKYO. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MAIN STR ASSUMES STEERING. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#45 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:26 pm

Not far off from landfall now.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby NotoSans » Sun Aug 21, 2016 8:29 pm

A ragged eye is popping out on visible imagery.
Image

Lowest pressure recorded at Miyakejima is 981.4 mb.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:47 pm

will there be funnenling at the bay?
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:56 pm

Edging ever closer to landfall.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:04 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YOKOTA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND UNRAVELED AS THE
SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL INTO MAINLAND JAPAN IN THE VICINITY OF TOKYO.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 10W HAS ENTERED INTO
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE POLEWARD FLOW; HOWEVER, ITS STORM MOTION IN
SYNC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MITIGATE SOME OF THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MINDULLE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AND BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:08 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:23 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUED TO UNRAVEL AND DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM
DRAGGED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF HONSHU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE 221059Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40-KNOT WIND BARBS JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE STORM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 10W
IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE POLEWARD FLOW; HOWEVER,
ITS STORM MOTION IN SYNC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS MITIGATES ADVERSE
EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MINDULLE HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. IT WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AND BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby NotoSans » Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:46 pm

Lowest pressure recorded in Chiba was 977.2 mb. Mindulle made landfall as a borderline Cat.1 IMO.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:33 pm

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 40.6N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 40.6N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 47.5N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 54.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 42.3N 142.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A
221726Z GPM 89 GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM RJTD AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. DUE TO THE DYNAMIC TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH 10W, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:13 pm

Image

Typhoon postseason upgrade?
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:15 pm

Interesting...

Typhoon Mindulle began as a tropical depression northwest of Guam on August 17th, and moved generally northward towards Japan. Tokyo received heavy rain, flooding, and strong winds from this system on August 21-22. Unofficial peak wind estimates of 78 mph (gusts to 100 mph) were reported.
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