WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:48 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG
WESTERLY SURGE. AN 181702Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED WELL
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM TS 10W. THEREFORE, PRESSURE
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE HAS REDUCED ALLOWING AN EXPANSION OF MOISTURE
DUE TO RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM NEAR 30
CELSIUS. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, THE IMPACTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48,
TS 10W WILL BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. TS 10W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSIFY 50 KNOTS AS
IT MOVES OVER A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN FAVORABLE WATERS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
JAPAN AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS IT
TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 120 WILL PREVENT
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AS IT TURNS POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MULTIPLE SCENARIOS DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH NUMEROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MONSOON
GYRE. GFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC (CTCX) DEPICT THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND
TURNING EAST NEAR TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. ECMWF DEPICTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
IMMEDIATELY, INTO RIDGING, AND THEN REJOINING THE REMAINING GUIDANCE
NEAR TAU 72. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT FEASIBLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE
(NAVGEM, COTC, EGRR, GFDN, AEMN) IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST AND, BASED ON THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN, IS THE
MOST REALISTIC SOLUTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS AND
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH OTHER STORMS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:31 pm

JMA finally wakes up and expects this to develop within 24 hours.

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 19 August 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 19 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°55' (16.9°)
E142°55' (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°35' (21.6°)
E143°50' (143.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:52 pm

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 190039
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 10W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1039 AM CHST FRI AUG 19 2016

...TROPICAL STORM 10W CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
ISLANDS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS HAS PASSED.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 10W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT
170 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
160 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN
220 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
290 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM 10W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM 10W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK KEEPS
THE CENTER OF TS 10W WEST OF ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN THE
ENTIRE TIME IT IS NEAR THE MARIANAS.

...PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM 10W IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF
PAGAN AROUND 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL STORM. PEOPLE ON
PAGAN...AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 10 FEET WILL OCCUR ON SOUTH AND WEST FACING
EXPOSURES...DUE PRIMARILY TO THE MONSOON FLOW. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL THREE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR TS 10W.

$$

KLEESCHULTE
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:55 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 182248
TCSWNP

A. 10W (NONAME)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 17.6N

D. 142.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A LLCC THAT IS LOCATED 1/3 DEGREE
INTO THE COLD OVERCAST WHICH YIELDS A DT=3.5. MET=2.5. PT=3.0. FT IS
BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1702Z 17.4N 143.0E SSMI


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:29 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASED SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI LOOP
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SLIGHT
MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE DOMINANT STEERING APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE; HOWEVER,
COMPETING STEERING FROM WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE
FOR THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. A 190048Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
VERTICAL LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE, THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST SPEED HAS BEEN DECREASED AND THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, EXPECT SLOW QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOOPING BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. BEYOND THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL REVERT BACK TO ITS EXPECTED
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. BEYOND TAU
48, TS 10W WILL BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. TS 10W WILL MAINTAIN ITS 55 KNOTS
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN FAVORABLE WATERS
THAT WILL OFFSET THE OTHER FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS IT TAPS INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION AS IT TURNS POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MULTIPLE SCENARIOS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
NUMEROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MONSOON GYRE. THE
BULK OF GUIDANCE IS NOT REFLECTING THE CURRENT MOTION AND THEREFORE,
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED BASED ON PERSISTENCE PRIOR
TO REJOINING THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAIN NEAR TERM MOTION THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:30 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 190318

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN)

B. 19/0300Z

C. 17.59N

D. 142.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2206Z 17.43N 142.57E SSMS


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby NotoSans » Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:29 am

JMA finally upgrades to TS Mindulle.

TS 1609 (Mindulle)
Issued at 07:30 UTC, 19 August 2016

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 19 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°50' (17.8°)
E141°50' (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
30 kt wind area S 220 km (120 NM)

N 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 19 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°55' (19.9°)
E143°10' (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°25' (22.4°)
E144°00' (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°20' (28.3°)
E143°25' (143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°55' (33.9°)
E139°55' (139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
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Re: WPAC: 10W - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:26 am

EURO interacts this with TS 12W and makes landfall over Tokyo as a 983mb typhoon...

GFS bottoms this to 966 mb as it makes landfall over mainland central Japan...

HWRF very similiar to GFS...
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:03 pm

982mb

Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:59 pm

Image

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 192139
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE (10W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP102016
800 AM CHST SAT AUG 20 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE TURNING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 140.3E

ABOUT 390 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN ISLAND
ABOUT 505 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 555 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 140.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
MINDULLE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED...TAKING IT TO LANDFALL
IN JAPAN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:03 pm

10W MINDULLE 160820 0000 20.4N 140.7E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:08 pm

I dig the up in intensity. Mindulle is clearly the most organized of the bunch at the moment.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 20, 2016 1:24 am

Anyone else unable to get on the JTWC site at the moment, it's been down for almost 24hrs for me. This seems to be a regular occurrence and is very irritating, wish they'd fix their site.

Starting to think Mindulle might be more of a threat to Japan than I initially thought, GFS has a solid typhoon coming ashore south of Tokyo. After Chanthu's surprise earlier in the week who knows!
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:03 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Anyone else unable to get on the JTWC site at the moment, it's been down for almost 24hrs for me. This seems to be a regular occurrence and is very irritating, wish they'd fix their site.

Starting to think Mindulle might be more of a threat to Japan than I initially thought, GFS has a solid typhoon coming ashore south of Tokyo. After Chanthu's surprise earlier in the week who knows!


Yup couldn't get on since this morning...
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby stormwise » Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:35 am

recovered at: 2016-08-20 0845Z
http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/indexfull.htm

WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AND DEGREE OF WRAP INTO A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN
THE 200511Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OS 55 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
HIGH-LATITUDE MONSOON GYRE AND IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF
JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR EXTENSION. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS (28 CELSIUS) AND UNDER FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS AT TAU 36-48 PRIOR TO
LANDFALL INTO THE ISLAND OF HONSHU NEAR TOKYO. A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND
IN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36 AS TS 10W INTERACTS
WITH TS 12W (LIONROCK). AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
HONSHU AS THE MAIN STR EAST OF JAPAN ASSUMES STEERING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
BUT TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING A GALE-FORCE LOW BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION OF THE INTERACTION WITH
TS 12W. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//


WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 011
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.6N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.9N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.1N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 41.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 51.3N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 140.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11W (DIANMU) WARNINGS (WTIO33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:10 pm

Remains 55 knots...

10W MINDULLE 160820 1800 26.5N 140.5E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:54 am

Remains 55 knots...

10W MINDULLE 160821 0600 30.3N 140.1E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:07 am

JMA upgrades to a Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1609 (Mindulle)
Issued at 13:45 UTC, 21 August 2016

<Analysis at 13 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N31°40' (31.7°)
E139°35' (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Estimate for 14 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N32°00' (32.0°)
E139°35' (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°20' (34.3°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°30' (37.5°)
E140°25' (140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 August>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N51°20' (51.3°)
E147°35' (147.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 70 km/h (37 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:16 pm

And now to Typhoon intensity!

Image

TY 1609 (Mindulle)
Issued at 17:50 UTC, 21 August 2016

<Analysis at 17 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N32°55' (32.9°)
E139°25' (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 90 km (50 NM)
W 40 km (20 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)

<Estimate for 18 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N33°10' (33.2°)
E139°20' (139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 90 km (50 NM)
W 40 km (20 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 280 km (150 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°40' (33.7°)
E139°10' (139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area E 140 km (75 NM)
W 80 km (45 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°00' (35.0°)
E139°25' (139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area E 170 km (90 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°35' (36.6°)
E140°05' (140.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N38°55' (38.9°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#40 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:21 pm

Hopefully we get a good microwave pass soon, since the last is over 6 hours old. Typhoon Mindulle is still a little lopsided, but as impressive as it has ever looked. JTWC may need to do a little intensity revision (they dropped to 45 kt at 12Z). I might personally estimate an intensity of 60 kt, a touch lower than JMA, but pretty close to what they have.

Image

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