ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9261 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:03 pm

Yea and looking at the Satellite, and watching the reports on the Weather Channel, I don't think this will be near as bad as they originally thought. There will still Pretty good storm surge and some flooding, but this could have been much worse had this not made the North East turn, which thank God it's made
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9262 Postby funster » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:05 pm

Is it not supposed to bend back to the west again at some point? I don't think we get to wave goodbye to Hermine yet unless something has changed.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9263 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:16 pm

Hermine, the most vicious naked swirl you've ever seen.

Image
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9264 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:17 pm

funster wrote:Is it not supposed to bend back to the west again at some point? I don't think we get to wave goodbye to Hermine yet unless something has changed.


Yes, the storm is supposed to crawl to a near stop tomorrow and make a loop or wobble toward the west. It remains to be seen how far it will go before it is punted back out into the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9265 Postby JaxGator » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:18 pm

I'll still be watching Hermine even though it's no longer affecting Florida/Jax. I also hope folks in the Northeast take this threat seriously. As most of us know, never take ye eye off a potent CV seed.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9266 Postby mitchell » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:47 pm

I live 10 miles from the coast in southern Delaware where we (and the entire state) have been under a Tropical Storm Warning for 30 hours now, with forecasts for 4-6 inches of rain.

We were partly cloudy today with a few sprinkles before dawn, and bright sun much of the afternoon.

Wind speeds got up to maybe 20 mph (again here 10 miles inland) earlier and have been 5-10 since the sun went down. The immediate oceanfront locations along Maryland and Delaware have generally been in the 15-25 mph range all day with a few gusts to 35 at exposed locations.

The storm is still expected to strengthen and stall, and maybe even drift a bit closer to the coast.

It would lend credibility to this kind of forecast (which has so far been FAR from verifying) if the NWS would simply acknowledge (and the media follow suit) that the Tropical Storm conditions have not materialized as forecast, but why conditions could worsen.

To keep us under the Tropical Storm Warning for 30 hours, while the winds are half that, without any explanation or acknowledgement, invites cynicism and lack of credibility, which causes people to disregard warnings.

Sorry if this is off base.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9267 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:54 pm

Looks to me like Hermine is moving east again and maybe even a wobble ESE. Obviously an extremely complicated setup for the models so we might see some large errors when all is said and done.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9268 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:29 pm

Looking forward to the NHC 11pmest discussion as Hermine continues to move east looking at satellite imagery....and a pretty good speed too with no sign of slowing down yet. I am pretty sure this east movement is not expected.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9269 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:31 pm

Does this mean that Hermine will have little to no effect for Long Island now? Just a few clouds and a bit of a breeze?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9270 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:32 pm

mitchell wrote:I live 10 miles from the coast in southern Delaware where we (and the entire state) have been under a Tropical Storm Warning for 30 hours now, with forecasts for 4-6 inches of rain.

We were partly cloudy today with a few sprinkles before dawn, and bright sun much of the afternoon.

Wind speeds got up to maybe 20 mph (again here 10 miles inland) earlier and have been 5-10 since the sun went down. The immediate oceanfront locations along Maryland and Delaware have generally been in the 15-25 mph range all day with a few gusts to 35 at exposed locations.

The storm is still expected to strengthen and stall, and maybe even drift a bit closer to the coast.

It would lend credibility to this kind of forecast (which has so far been FAR from verifying) if the NWS would simply acknowledge (and the media follow suit) that the Tropical Storm conditions have not materialized as forecast, but why conditions could worsen.

To keep us under the Tropical Storm Warning for 30 hours, while the winds are half that, without any explanation or acknowledgement, invites cynicism and lack of credibility, which causes people to disregard warnings.

Sorry if this is off base.



You are not off base at all.

I am not sure if my comment is appropriate or not but what we are seeing is I think the result of some cry babies (like JB) who flamed the NHC for not continuing advisories on Sandy in 2012 after it became post tropical. Critics felt the NHC should have continued advisories on Sandy so that people would take the storm seriously....despite the fact Sandy had clearly become post tropical.

Fast forward 4 years and now you have adjusted NWS policy allowing the NHC to continue to issue advisories on post tropical cyclones such as Hermine for the sake of having watches and warnings up. The end result is you are now under tropical cyclone advisories (tropical storm warning) on a storm that is no longer really behaving like a tropical cyclone.

Hang in there. I am hoping you guys up north end up okay. Take care.


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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#9271 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

...HERMINE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO NEW JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 72.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and the north with a
decrease in forward speed are expected on Sunday, followed by a slow
northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that,
the cyclone is expected to intensify to hurricane force Sunday and
Sunday night.

Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday,
and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions
along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during
the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through
tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from
Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within
these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and
property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will mainly remain
offshore through Monday/Labor Day. However, isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are still possible along the
immediate coastline of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and up into
southeast New England.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

Hermine has changed little in structure since the last advisory,
with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the
center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern
semicircle. Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure had risen to 998
mb, and that 55-60 kt surface winds were present about 70 n mi
northwest of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity
remains 60 kt.

Hermine continues to move east-northeastward with the initial
motion of 075/11. During the next 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level
trough currently moving through the northeastern United States will
move close to, and then over the top of, the post-tropical cyclone.
During this evolution, Hermine is expected to move slowly northward
and then northwestward as it makes at least a partial cyclonic loop.
While the track guidance is in fair agreement for the first 48-72
hours, there remains significant spread later in the period on how
fast the cyclone will move out to sea after it merges with the
trough. The UKMET is very slow to move the system out, while the
ECMWF is much faster. The GFS is between these extremes, and the
current run shows a little faster motion than the previous run.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast through
72 hours, and then is somewhat faster in moving the system to the
east-northeast. Overall, there remains low confidence in any
particular model solution, and it should be noted that the GFS and
UKMET both bring the center closer to land than the official
forecast.

Little change in strength is likely tonight. On Sunday and Monday,
the interaction with the upper-level trough is expected to provide
more favorable conditions for strengthening while the system is
over sea surface temperatures of 28C or warmer, and the dynamical
models all show some deepening during this period. Based on this,
the intensity forecast calls for Hermine to become a hurricane-force
low. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should
slowly weaken after 48 hours, and this is indicated in the forecast
as well.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend and into midweek.

2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in
large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during
the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple
occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within
the warning area during this time.

3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as
long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone.
The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge
model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am
EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas
northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of
P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat.

5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 36.5N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1200Z 37.1N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 37.6N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/1200Z 37.9N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 06/0000Z 38.3N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 07/0000Z 39.0N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/0000Z 40.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/0000Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9272 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:54 pm

NHC doesn't really think too much about the continuous East movement claiming that it will turn northward tomorrow, hmm......
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9273 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:54 pm

Overall, I think the NHC is doing the right thing. Sure it doesn't have an inner core, but it is still a dangerous system and had been warned by the NHC for days so continuity helps. What else is interesting is that it isn't even really extratropical (doesn't look frontal to me). The post-tropical classification is correct, although I would consider it more of a hybrid/non-tropical low.

Also, there is a chance it may regain tropical characteristics this week.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9274 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:55 pm

weathaguyry wrote:NHC doesn't really think too much about the continuous East movement claiming that it will turn northward tomorrow, hmm......


If it is going more east now, it might just go more northwest and closer to Long Island and NYC later on.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9275 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:55 pm

Scratching my head on how NHC says it is moving ENE but anyway looks like they did shift the track to the east again slightly. I keep looking at this loop and don't see it:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9276 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:33 pm

System is on track in the short term.

Hermine continues to move east-northeastward with the initial
motion of 075/11. During the next 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level
trough currently moving through the northeastern United States will
move close to, and then over the top of, the post-tropical cyclone.
During this evolution, Hermine is expected to move slowly northward
and then northwestward as it makes at least a partial cyclonic loop.
While the track guidance is in fair agreement for the first 48-72
hours, there remains significant spread later in the period on how
fast the cyclone will move out to sea after it merges with the
trough.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9277 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 11:59 pm

This is completely unofficial, but here is how I would have the best track as of now. It does not include the pre-genesis stage. A few highlights:

* I estimate there were 2 landfalls in Florida - the first at Alligator Point, the second just west of St. Marks (I shifted the track a bit left there).
* The intensities were adjusted (mostly upward) based on analysis of Recon. It was likely 75 kt at peak and Alligator Point landfall but 70 kt at St. Marks landfall. The minimum pressure I set at 983.
* A brief tropical storm period I added in on August 30 based on Recon surface data, but it was short-lived then.
* The transition to post-tropical is unchanged from the NHC timing, although I used LO and not EX as it doesn't appear to be extratropical/

AL092016, HERMINE, 27
20160828, 2100, G, TD, 23.7N, 81.9W, 30, 1008,
20160829, 0000, , TD, 23.5N, 82.3W, 30, 1007,
20160829, 0600, , TD, 23.4N, 83.5W, 25, 1007,
20160829, 1200, , TD, 23.6N, 84.1W, 25, 1007,
20160829, 1800, , TD, 23.8N, 84.6W, 30, 1005,
20160830, 0000, , TD, 23.8N, 85.2W, 30, 1003,
20160830, 0600, , TD, 23.8N, 86.2W, 30, 1003,
20160830, 1200, , TS, 23.9N, 86.8W, 35, 1002,
20160830, 1800, , TD, 24.1N, 87.1W, 30, 1004,
20160831, 0000, , TD, 24.2N, 87.7W, 30, 1005,
20160831, 0600, , TS, 24.4N, 88.0W, 35, 1003,
20160831, 1200, , TS, 24.8N, 87.9W, 40, 1001,
20160831, 1800, , TS, 25.3N, 87.6W, 45, 1001,
20160901, 0000, , TS, 25.6N, 87.1W, 55, 999,
20160901, 0600, , TS, 26.0N, 86.8W, 60, 996,
20160901, 1200, , TS, 27.0N, 86.2W, 60, 992,
20160901, 1800, , HU, 28.0N, 85.4W, 65, 988,
20160902, 0000, , HU, 29.1N, 84.8W, 75, 983,
20160902, 0415, L, HU, 29.9N, 84.4W, 75, 983,
20160902, 0530, L, HU, 30.1N, 84.3W, 70, 984,
20160902, 0600, , HU, 30.2N, 84.2W, 65, 985,
20160902, 1200, , TS, 31.4N, 82.8W, 50, 988,
20160902, 1800, , TS, 32.5N, 81.3W, 50, 992,
20160903, 0000, , TS, 33.7N, 79.3W, 55, 994,
20160903, 0600, , TS, 35.0N, 77.3W, 55, 996,
20160903, 1200, , LO, 35.8N, 75.5W, 60, 995,
20160903, 1800, , LO, 36.1N, 74.1W, 60, 996,
20160904, 0000, , LO, 36.4N, 72.6W, 60, 997,
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9278 Postby Happy Pelican » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:49 am

Euro takes her pretty east where others have her coming more west. Interesting to see what's being reported in the morning.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9279 Postby Frank2 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:24 am

The original center swirl now merging into a much larger center as it begins to move more NNE. Only light winds along the entire coast ATTM so not sure what effect the surface low will have, but hopefully not as much as many originally feared, as the system lacks any convection, even if the cold low moves overhead...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9280 Postby Airboy » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:42 am

Going close to pure east accoarding to recon.

Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 8:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 36°55'N 70°38'W (36.9167N 70.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 287 statute miles (462 km) to the ENE (78°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA

Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) which was observed 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) from the flight level center at 7:59:30Z
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