ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#9281 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:30 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO NEW JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 70.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Duck,
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Duck to west of Watch Hill
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 70.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and the north with a
decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a
slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore
of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, the
cyclone is forecast to intensify to hurricane force late tonight and
on Monday.

Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on recent reports from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday,
and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions
along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during
the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through
tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from
Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within
these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and
property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain
offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island
to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or
less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

The overall structure of Hermine has changed little during the past
6 hours. A ring of shallow convection has developed within 60-100
n mi northwest through northeast of the center, possibly due to that
portion of the circulation passing over the Gulf Stream, where water
temperatures are 29-30C. An earlier ASCAT-B pass indicated that
winds had decreased to 50-55 kt, and recent data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft confirms that Hermine has peak
winds of 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 065/10 kt. Hermine is expected to
move slowly northward and perhaps erratically during the next 36
hours as the post-tropical cyclone begins to interact with an
approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough that is
gradually becoming more negatively tilted based on water vapor
imagery. By 36-48 hours, Hermine is expected to become vertically
stacked beneath a cut-off low, which could result in the cyclone
briefly stalling south of southern New England before lifting out to
the northeast by 72 hours. The models are in fairly good agreement
on this developing track scenario through about 36 hours, but then
diverge significantly after that with the UKMET model turning
Hermine farther west closer to the New Jersey coast while the ECMWF
lifts out Hermine more quickly. The GFS solution lies between these
two extremes, and the new forecast track closely follows that model.
However, there remains low confidence in any particular model.

Little change in strength is likely today. However, by late tonight
and on Monday, the models indicate that at least 6 deg C of cooling
in the mid-/upper-levels will occur when Hermine's low-level
circulation moves underneath the cut-off low. The combination of the
much cooler air aloft over SSTs of at least 27-28C should generate
strong instability and some inner-core convection, possibly
resulting in a Hermine making the transition to a subtropical
cyclone and strengthening back to hurricane force. The guidance is
in good agreement that the system should slowly weaken after 48
hours when the system will be moving over much cooler water north
of the Gulf Stream. The intensity forecast closely follows a blend
of the GFS-ECMWF model solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend and into midweek.

2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in
large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during
the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple
occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within
the warning area during this time.

3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as
long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone.
The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge
model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am
EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas
northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of
P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat.

5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 36.8N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 37.2N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 37.7N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 06/0600Z 38.5N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 07/0600Z 39.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/0600Z 40.3N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#9282 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:30 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO NEW JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 70.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Duck,
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Duck to west of Watch Hill
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 70.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and the north with a
decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a
slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore
of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, the
cyclone is forecast to intensify to hurricane force late tonight and
on Monday.

Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on recent reports from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday,
and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions
along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during
the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through
tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from
Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within
these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and
property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain
offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island
to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or
less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

The overall structure of Hermine has changed little during the past
6 hours. A ring of shallow convection has developed within 60-100
n mi northwest through northeast of the center, possibly due to that
portion of the circulation passing over the Gulf Stream, where water
temperatures are 29-30C. An earlier ASCAT-B pass indicated that
winds had decreased to 50-55 kt, and recent data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft confirms that Hermine has peak
winds of 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 065/10 kt. Hermine is expected to
move slowly northward and perhaps erratically during the next 36
hours as the post-tropical cyclone begins to interact with an
approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough that is
gradually becoming more negatively tilted based on water vapor
imagery. By 36-48 hours, Hermine is expected to become vertically
stacked beneath a cut-off low, which could result in the cyclone
briefly stalling south of southern New England before lifting out to
the northeast by 72 hours. The models are in fairly good agreement
on this developing track scenario through about 36 hours, but then
diverge significantly after that with the UKMET model turning
Hermine farther west closer to the New Jersey coast while the ECMWF
lifts out Hermine more quickly. The GFS solution lies between these
two extremes, and the new forecast track closely follows that model.
However, there remains low confidence in any particular model.

Little change in strength is likely today. However, by late tonight
and on Monday, the models indicate that at least 6 deg C of cooling
in the mid-/upper-levels will occur when Hermine's low-level
circulation moves underneath the cut-off low. The combination of the
much cooler air aloft over SSTs of at least 27-28C should generate
strong instability and some inner-core convection, possibly
resulting in a Hermine making the transition to a subtropical
cyclone and strengthening back to hurricane force. The guidance is
in good agreement that the system should slowly weaken after 48
hours when the system will be moving over much cooler water north
of the Gulf Stream. The intensity forecast closely follows a blend
of the GFS-ECMWF model solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend and into midweek.

2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in
large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during
the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple
occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within
the warning area during this time.

3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as
long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone.
The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge
model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am
EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas
northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of
P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat.

5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 36.8N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 37.2N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 37.7N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/1800Z 38.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 06/0600Z 38.5N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 07/0600Z 39.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/0600Z 40.3N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9283 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 04, 2016 6:59 am

Hermine looks to be moving east still when I look at this loop below. I see the NHC has adjusted the track even more off the coast and to the east looking at the last NHC update at 5amest

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9284 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:50 am

So what is your guys opinion on the constant east movement, I keep looking at new model runs and it doesn't really seem to change the models very much, and even if this goes east, it could just sneak north to around Long Island, which would not be good at all! I'm my local discussion they keep 2-4 feet of storm surge, with the bays of Southern LI (Where I am :eek:)
As a key spot for storm surge flooding, as this town's elevation is 12ft at its highest level. Do you guys think that 2-4ft sounds reasonable? Do you guys agree with the NHC for thinking that Hermine will turn north and hit its stride tonight and become hurricane force?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9285 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:03 am

This is really far off the coast now...where are the mechanisms that are going to slow this and turn it back? Because it continues to move away.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9286 Postby funster » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:15 am

A met on Twitter says: "The upper level low is centered over SW VA and needed to be over Delaware. Thus the low level center just keeps on moving east."

https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/statu ... 9674849284
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9287 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:19 am

NHC cone still shows an immediate west turn, followed by a WNW motion towards New Jersey. Judging by recent satellite loops, I don't see any sign of Hermine wanting to stop going east.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9288 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:59 am

Seems very quiet on this board with so much to talk about, I guess people are catching up on sleep from Hermine's Florida landfall, lol
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9289 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:04 am

The forecast Tropical Storm Warnings IRT effects at the shore and on land were a bust. It happens, although not nearly as much as it used to but mother nature still rules. AS for the NHC, these remnants of Hermine are still pretty much on the far eastern side of the cone from a few days ago, it's the intensity that is not nearly as forecasted and that is still the achillies heel of tropical cyclone forecasting.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9290 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:10 am

I think that Hermine should remain far enough offshore such that tropical storm conditions remain well east of New Jersey. Nantucket Island could see brief TS winds tomorrow, but winds along the coast from Long Island to Cape Cod should generally be in the 20-30 mph range - less for New Jersey. Now recon did find winds near hurricane strength northeast of the center in the past hour. These stronger winds will wrap around to the west of the center later today and on Monday. If Hermine was to drift farther west tonight/tomorrow, then the TS winds COULD touch the NJ coast. Thus the need for continued TS warnings along coastal areas.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9291 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:12 am

toad strangler wrote:The forecast Tropical Storm Warnings IRT effects at the shore and on land were a bust. It happens, although not nearly as much as it used to but mother nature still rules. AS for the NHC, these remnants of Hermine are still pretty much on the far eastern side of the cone from a few days ago, it's the intensity that is not nearly as forecasted and that is still the achillies heel of tropical cyclone forecasting.


Don't focus on the cone - the effects extend WAY outside of that cone. The cone merely represents average track error over the last 5 years, it has nothing to do with current track uncertainty or potential impacts.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9292 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:23 am

wxman57 wrote:I think that Hermine should remain far enough offshore such that tropical storm conditions remain well east of New Jersey. Nantucket Island could see brief TS winds tomorrow, but winds along the coast from Long Island to Cape Cod should generally be in the 20-30 mph range - less for New Jersey. Now recon did find winds near hurricane strength northeast of the center in the past hour. These stronger winds will wrap around to the west of the center later today and on Monday. If Hermine was to drift farther west tonight/tomorrow, then the TS winds COULD touch the NJ coast. Thus the need for continued TS warnings along coastal areas.


So do you think that 2-4 feet of storm surge on LI sounds reasonable, I live in an area that is east facing to the bay, and our local discussion mentioned that our area may be the worst
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9293 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:28 am

weathaguyry wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think that Hermine should remain far enough offshore such that tropical storm conditions remain well east of New Jersey. Nantucket Island could see brief TS winds tomorrow, but winds along the coast from Long Island to Cape Cod should generally be in the 20-30 mph range - less for New Jersey. Now recon did find winds near hurricane strength northeast of the center in the past hour. These stronger winds will wrap around to the west of the center later today and on Monday. If Hermine was to drift farther west tonight/tomorrow, then the TS winds COULD touch the NJ coast. Thus the need for continued TS warnings along coastal areas.


So do you think that 2-4 feet of storm surge on LI sounds reasonable, I live in an area that is east facing to the bay, and our local discussion mentioned that our area may be the worst


4ft is possible, but 2-3ft is more likely.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9294 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:31 am

wxman57 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:The forecast Tropical Storm Warnings IRT effects at the shore and on land were a bust. It happens, although not nearly as much as it used to but mother nature still rules. AS for the NHC, these remnants of Hermine are still pretty much on the far eastern side of the cone from a few days ago, it's the intensity that is not nearly as forecasted and that is still the achillies heel of tropical cyclone forecasting.


Don't focus on the cone - the effects extend WAY outside of that cone. The cone merely represents average track error over the last 5 years, it has nothing to do with current track uncertainty or potential impacts.


Absolutely, I was pointing out the cone because it looks like Hermine is still in the NHC cone from a few days ago albeit to the far E. Thats all. IRT effects, I was talking about just what was forecasted at the shore and inland a bit.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9295 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:33 am

wxman57 wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think that Hermine should remain far enough offshore such that tropical storm conditions remain well east of New Jersey. Nantucket Island could see brief TS winds tomorrow, but winds along the coast from Long Island to Cape Cod should generally be in the 20-30 mph range - less for New Jersey. Now recon did find winds near hurricane strength northeast of the center in the past hour. These stronger winds will wrap around to the west of the center later today and on Monday. If Hermine was to drift farther west tonight/tomorrow, then the TS winds COULD touch the NJ coast. Thus the need for continued TS warnings along coastal areas.


So do you think that 2-4 feet of storm surge on LI sounds reasonable, I live in an area that is east facing to the bay, and our local discussion mentioned that our area may be the worst


4ft is possible, but 2-3ft is more likely.


Ok, thanks for the speedy response, do you think that the threat has really decreased since Hermine is now east of us?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Advisories

#9296 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:45 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 69.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Cape Charles Light has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Charles Light to west of Watch Hill
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 69.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow
north-northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to be at or near hurricane
strength during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the
next 36 hours from Cape Charles, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly
follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local
officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations
between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut,
including Long Island.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina sounds and northern Outer Banks...1 to 2 feet
Cape Charles to Chincoteague, VA...2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Atlantic City, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Atlantic City to Sandy Hook, NJ...2 to 4 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT including Long Island...1 to 3
feet

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain
offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island
to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or
less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016

Hermine continues to have the structure of a post-tropical cyclone,
with practically all of the deep convection well removed to the
north-northeast of the center. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
measured peak surface winds near 60 kt, and that value is used for
the advisory intensity. Since the cyclone is over warm
waters and the vertical shear may decrease somewhat during the next
couple of days, some partial transition back to a tropical cyclone
is possible. However, this is not explicitly indicated in the
official forecast. In any event, the intensity of the system
should be at or near hurricane force over the next 48 hours or so.

Based on center fixes from the aircraft, the initial motion is
060/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric short wave trough will approach
Hermine within the next day or so, and the global models forecast
this vorticity maximum to merge with Hermine. This interaction
is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move
northeastward, then northward, and then north-northwestward during
the next 36 hours or so. Since the center has already moved a
little to the east of the previous track, the official forecast has
been adjusted eastward. Later in the forecast period, the system
should move east-northeastward, and away from the northeastern
United States. The official track forecast is somewhat to the west
of the latest multi-model consensus.

The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend and into midweek.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 37.2N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 37.6N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/1200Z 38.3N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 06/0000Z 38.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 06/1200Z 39.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 07/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/1200Z 42.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9297 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:24 am

Thanks wxman for all your comments. It appears the East Coast has averted a disaster. Thank Goodness. They didn't need another Sandy.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9298 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:29 am

weathaguyry wrote:Ok, thanks for the speedy response, do you think that the threat has really decreased since Hermine is now east of us?


Definitely, the threat has decreased. It's not gone completely, though.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9299 Postby lilac » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:56 am

Really appreciate wxman's advice. You really dedicate a lot of your time to informing people from all areas on this board. We appreciate it.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9300 Postby Happy Pelican » Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:15 am

Thank you! At one point it was being forecasted to rival Sandy level flooding and while I wasn't worried about my house this time (lifted to comply with new FEMA maps) the thought of living in a disaster area again or even worse, not even have access to my home if the barriers were restricted again. The thought of watching my friends and neighbors reliving that hell again was really messing with me.
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