ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

00z NAM with a pretty big east shift from the 18z and has the system further away from New Jersey

[South Texas Storms]

00z NAM with a pretty big east shift from the 18z and has the system further away from New Jersey

However the 4 km (high-res) NAM shifted west by a pretty good margin compared to the 18z run...

[bob rulz]

Hovering off the coast for 5 days? Am I reading that right??

[toad strangler]

0z Euro was progressive as compared to earlier guidance of the past couple days. By 0z Wednesday what is left of Hermine is sent packing to the E by the Euro. This would fit more into climatology (you would think) than a system lingering near the Benchmark for days on end. This is not a forecast, rather an observation of the 0z Euro tonight.

[Frank2]

The GFS performed well with Hermine, ignoring the dire forecasts of the other models and instead consistently showed Hermine as a minimal hurricane in the NE Gulf.

It's unfortunate the other models caused near panic at times - modeling groups need to work on refining their products, to avoid cry wolf predictions. The GFS on the other hand has been around for years, and has been modified many times - it also performed well with earlier systems this season, correctly forecasting strength and track days in advance.

Frank

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro looks more east and further from the coast through 24 hours.

[Ken711]

12Z Euro looks more east and further from the coast through 24 hours.

I hope that trend holds.

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

48 hours, looks to have moved closer to coast

[Alyono]

EC has its closest approach to the coast around 21Z on Monday. makes it to about 72.3W

[toad strangler]

12z Euro was progressive again, capture and retrograde not nearly what it was in earlier guidance.

[AdamFirst]

(edit: removed NAM because it was older run, not 00z)

00z GFS makes a sharp left turn as a deepening storm in an exaggerated cyclonic loop, with its closest approach at 06z Monday. It finds the escape hatch and resumes a ENE/NE course out by 00z Tuesday.

[tolakram]

GFS is still showing this moving closer to the coast before moving out. Very tough forecast to make.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This storm's a big headache. As soon as everyone was certain this was going to stay east due to the nonstop east movement yesterday and all the models shifting east with it, now they've all shifted extremely far west. What's even stranger is some show it coming back to the coast and dissipating.

If it keeps that huge wind field and it gets as far west as the gfs, euro and the other runs have it, then they might have to reissue some of the warnings they finally ended up dropping :\

Here's the 0z Euro at hour 48:



The 0z GFS is also around the same location:

[TheDreamTraveler]

The 6z GFS ends up moving it just an inch to the west of the 0z run. The NAM is also insistent on having this dissipate right over Long Island and New England.

[funster]

Very interesting model runs. The NHC responded with a slight western shift. it sounds like they are waiting for another round of model confirmation before completely buying into this. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0857.shtml

[NDG]

The GFS performed well with Hermine, ignoring the dire forecasts of the other models and instead consistently showed Hermine as a minimal hurricane in the NE Gulf.

It's unfortunate the other models caused near panic at times - modeling groups need to work on refining their products, to avoid cry wolf predictions. The GFS on the other hand has been around for years, and has been modified many times - it also performed well with earlier systems this season, correctly forecasting strength and track days in advance.

Frank

The GFS did very well with Hermine when it was over Bahamas of forecasting it to be nothing more than weak broad surface low but do not forget that when the tropical wave was over the eastern Atlantic it was forecasting it to become a hurricane as it was to approach the Lesser Antilles.

I also think it somewhat failed over the GOM, it took it a while before it showed Hermine to become a tropical storm, it never showed it to become a hurricane until basically the day of landfall, you might be thinking of the HWRF which was persistent of it becoming a hurricane.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro back to moving the storm closer to the coast.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS similar and has stayed fairly consistent with this track.