ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SeGaBob]

FWIW the 0Z Euro is running.

[Hammy]

FWIW the 0Z Euro is running.

Do I even dare check it...

[Alyono]

EC at 977mb just east of Apalachicola around 6Z Friday

[SeGaBob]

Can you tell if it moves through here between then and SC? 24 hour time jump on tropicaltidbits makes it hard to tell.

[Alyono]

Can you tell if it moves through here between then and SC? 24 hour time jump on tropicaltidbits makes it hard to tell.

It reemerges at about Hilton Head Island at 21Z on Friday with a 993mb pressure. Cuts right through southeast Georgia

[Hammy]

EC at 977mb just east of Apalachicola around 6Z Friday

Toss it?

[SeGaBob]

Can you tell if it moves through here between then and SC? 24 hour time jump on tropicaltidbits makes it hard to tell.

It reemerges at about Hilton Head Island at 21Z on Friday with a 993mb pressure. Cuts right through southeast Georgia

Thanks.

[Alyono]

EC at 977mb just east of Apalachicola around 6Z Friday

Toss it?

if this can ever get aligned, I can see that happening. If it gets aligned immediately, even the 4km NAM, while UNLIKELY, would not be impossible. I just am not sure when this gets aligned

[Alyono]

MASSIVE change to the MU. Hard hook into the Mid Atlantic

[Nimbus]

Over night models shifted west as did the official NHC track probably due to the delay.
08 and the ULL over the Carolinas have more time to move out to the northeast.
Texas ULL still there providing light shear, no sign of either a trough or ridging north of the system yet though.

[tolakram]

Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.

Recent model runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.

Recent model runs.

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/cqMsjPA.gif[/img]

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/y8Axtcw.gif[/img]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/BuhuiVQ.gif[/img]

A very interesting pattern setup for the GFS on the 06z run this morning. Way out in the long range it takes TD9 for a loop back around and visits the Carolinas and mid Atlantic all over again.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.

Recent model runs.

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/cqMsjPA.gif[/img]

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/y8Axtcw.gif[/img]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/BuhuiVQ.gif[/img]

A very interesting pattern setup for the GFS on the 06z run this morning. Way out in the long range it takes TD9 for a loop back around and visits the Carolinas and mid Atlantic all over again.

hurricane gordon 1994

[GlennOBX]

Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.

Recent model runs.

Sorry for another 101 level question, but can someone explain the meaning of the circles around the depiction of the storm with numbers like 145 and 150 being shown? Also, is there a way to accurately (or not) translate predicted pressure into what the wind speed might be based on that pressure? TIA.

[txwatcher91]

The 4km NAM has been extremely consistent with rapid organization today and tomorrow. It strengthens it into a 938mb hurricane and has been consistent with this idea. While it's likely wrong it has done well with the track and slow movement of TD 9. RI is not usually forecasted much in advance and can often catch forecasters and the public by surprise. Worth mentioning imo.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_32.png

[RL3AO]

Remember to keep discussion in here about model runs, not thoughts or other posts that belong in the discussion thread. Off topic posts are deleted.

Recent model runs.

Sorry for another 101 level question, but can someone explain the meaning of the circles around the depiction of the storm with numbers like 145 and 150 being shown? Also, is there a way to accurately (or not) translate predicted pressure into what the wind speed might be based on that pressure? TIA.

The first two (plotting the yellow vorticty) are from 850 mb or about 5000 feet above the ground. The labels are the heights above the ground in decameters at that spot. They work similarly to pressure isobars on a surface map. 150 means 850 mb is 1500 meters above the ground there.

[LarryWx]

As of hours 36-42 on the 12Z GFS, this is modeled the strongest yet for a GFS run. It is about 100 miles SW of its 6Z GFS position.

[Siker]

GFS seems to be falling in with other guidance on a strong TS - minimal Cat 1 at landfall.

[LarryWx]

The rainfall, which a couple of days ago was modeled on the GFS to be heaviest SE of the track over the N FL peninsula, is now modeled NW of a much more NW track. Is this due to more baroclinic influences than when it was modeled to track over the N FL peninsula?

The 12Z GFS has the Raleigh area getting close to 5"! Wow!

[N2FSU]

12z GFS; west shift, stronger, about 6 hours later. Looks to be about Apalachicola