ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Nimbus]

According to the ECMWF the "rings" are a little closer together in the direction of motion near landfall.
Doesn't effect track as much as intensity at that latitude though.

[Happy Pelican]

The GFS has me nervous with its latest run. Banking the storm left into the mid-Atlantic could be a disaster for the Jersey shore. My next door neighbors house has been up in the air on cribbing for over a year (contractor took off) along with so many other homes that are still rebuilding from Sandy. Any flooding could set our (already failed) recovery back even further. I know it's only one run but I def have some ptsd from Sandy.

[NDG]

I wonder if all these vorticities between TD 8 & TD 9 have been giving the models a fit with the forecast track & movement.

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z run

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO 48h

[drezee]

Euro goes HAM withe the NE and MA...keeps her around for 10 days

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[crownweather]

Is there any word on how good (or bad) the HRRR model is with tropical cyclones after the recent upgrade? I know previous versions were pretty bad with TC intensification (not as bad as the 4 km NAM, but bad). Been looking at the HRRR for short term trends to look for and it has been consistently forecasting Hermine to ramp up over the next 12-18 hours. I'm skeptical on its output, but at the same time....I wonder.

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/yhrrr.php

[Alyono]

Models have shifted back to the east now. Now keeping it near the coastline

[psyclone]

Models have shifted back to the east now. Now keeping it near the coastline

are you referring to the southeast coast? what about gulf coast landfall?

[Alyono]

Models have shifted back to the east now. Now keeping it near the coastline

are you referring to the southeast coast? what about gulf coast landfall?

southeast coast

[SeGaBob]

0Z EURO is running. Can someone with access to the full run tell me if it still moves through here between 24 and 48 hours?

[tolakram]

0Z EURO is running. Can someone with access to the full run tell me if it still moves through here between 24 and 48 hours?

Better late then never.

0Z Euro run

[tolakram]

0Z GFS

[tolakram]

0Z HWRF

[terrapintransit]

Looks kind of like it wants to pull an 72' Agnus and hang out spinning off the mid atlantic coast. May be too far out though to cause the flooding in Pa that Angus caused

0Z HWRF

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/Yk3ssBe.gif[/img]

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[Alyono]

Looks kind of like it wants to pull an 72' Agnus and hang out spinning off the mid atlantic coast. May be too far out though to cause the flooding in Pa that Angus caused

0Z HWRF

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/Yk3ssBe.gif[/img]

better stalling offshore than over central PA like Agnes