ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3821 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:29 pm

12Z EC with a stall just off the coast between hours 72 and 96 but closer to the coast than the 00Z - this would be a big Labor Day weekend damper for the Northeast:

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3822 Postby Happy Pelican » Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z EC with a stall just off the coast between hours 72 and 96 but closer to the coast than the 00Z - this would be a big Labor Day weekend damper for the Northeast:

Image


This is a train wreck for us. So many people still aren't home from Sandy, houses sitting in the air on cribbing and the barrier islands pretty much flood from a rain show. Oh, let's not those pesky dunes most towns have been asking for. :double:
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3823 Postby Joe Snow » Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:24 pm

GFS run from 30 - 156 hours meanders off the New Jersey coast, could this actually happen? Would not be good for the area.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3824 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:19 am

So after 192 pages... Turns out the Euro eventually verified (when you exclude its Cat. 5 doomsday landfalls of course).
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3825 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:49 am

Joe Snow wrote:GFS run from 30 - 156 hours meanders off the New Jersey coast, could this actually happen? Would not be good for the area.


we've had nor'easters linger that long. This impact would probably be similar.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3826 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:37 am

Kingarabian wrote:So after 192 pages... Turns out the Euro eventually verified (when you exclude its Cat. 5 doomsday landfalls of course).


All models eventually verified. :)

Let's compare the trend graphs.

Image

Image

GFS did extremely well and had it a day before the Euro, plus was more consistent with landfall location and strength.

As far as general trends I think the NAVGEM did better than the euro further out. :lol:

Image

The JMA is most interesting. Locks the low in the same exact place for multiple runs? Really?
Image

As for the Hurricane models:

HWRF did pretty good on intensity and location near the end.
Image

GFDL too strong, as usual.
Image
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3827 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:26 pm

O' Canada, I forgot the CMC.

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3828 Postby NJWxHurricane » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:00 pm

How do 12z models look for the mid-atlantic?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3829 Postby crownweather » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:11 pm

NJWxHurricane wrote:How do 12z models look for the mid-atlantic?


They have all trended towards a much more ominous forecast for the Mid-Atlantic & particularly Long Island Sound & the Jersey shore with at least 3 days of severe beach erosion, serious coastal flooding and strong winds.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3830 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:15 pm

Guidance looks brutal for the coast. Lets see if it persists this evening, but it does not look good.
If I had beach plans, I'd cancel them.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3831 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:20 pm

Geez, this looks horrible, so much for my school starting on Tuesday, how bad do you guys think this could be in the South Shore LI back bay area, the NE winds are the winds that really cause us trouble where we are
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3832 Postby crownweather » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:25 pm

Then I think you're in trouble as winds are forecast to be in a E to NE direction at a velocity of 25-35 mph in the Sound starting Sunday and continuing through Monday before they change direction into a more N & NW direction on Tuesday.


weathaguyry wrote:Geez, this looks horrible, so much for my school starting on Tuesday, how bad do you guys think this could be in the South Shore LI back bay area, the NE winds are the winds that really cause us trouble where we are
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3833 Postby Happy Pelican » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:13 pm

Oh man. I guess the living nightmare of having my house lifted is gonna pay off. So many people may potentially lose everything again.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3834 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:15 pm

What are the chances of the nightmare scenario developing?

That being that the ridge opens up to the northwest and allows Hermine to make landfall and go inland, most likely on Monday (similar track to 1903). It seems that the ECMWF weakens the ridge, only to amplify it again late Monday or Tuesday. There might be a window of opportunity for landfall and a track inland...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3835 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:20 pm

If it were to track more inland, where would it be stationed at? Near Long Island?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3836 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:22 pm

Hey all, model questions are ok but put the discussion in the discussion thread and not here please. Off topic messages will be removed without notice in order to keep this thread usable.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3837 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:27 pm

12Z

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3838 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:33 pm

HWRF, not sure how good this is when a system if over land.

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3839 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:55 pm

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Models

#3840 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:57 pm

18Z GFS

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