ATL: HERMINE - Models

[cycloneye]

Models here.

[Siker]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992016 08/18/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 51 57 60 60 63 65 72
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 51 57 60 60 63 65 72
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 42 49 55 58 59 59 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 8 8 11 12 7 9 6 9 12 5 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 86 81 46 47 52 26 9 3 270 271 271 226 67
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 132 133 134 138 136 130 132 135 139 147 153
ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 129 130 131 139 138 133 136 141 146 155 160
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11
700-500 MB RH 72 73 76 73 71 71 67 66 61 66 62 63 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 23 30 33 29 31 31 27 22 46 58 62 57
200 MB DIV 22 34 15 4 11 6 -5 24 23 41 42 49 29
700-850 TADV 7 6 4 3 2 1 -2 0 3 3 3 1 0
LAND (KM) 1173 1252 1339 1433 1512 1681 1894 1756 1500 1225 971 766 411
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.6 11.6 12.7 13.5 13.7 13.5 12.8 12.2
LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.5 29.2 30.0 30.7 32.4 34.7 37.8 41.5 45.7 50.0 54.0 57.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 11 14 17 19 21 21 19 17
HEAT CONTENT 13 15 19 25 23 17 18 20 8 10 38 60 48

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 26. 32. 35. 35. 38. 40. 47.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 27.8

[cycloneye]

SHIP is bullish.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/766342745807949824

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF still doesn't have it.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF still doesn't have it.

Has become the outlier.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro even less bullish than it's 00z run this morning. You can track 99L's vorticity all the way to the SW Caribbean where it doesn't develop into anything. Could the Euro be seeing something that the GFS isn't?

[Hurricaneman]

What I've noticed is that the Euro is not all that great in the deep tropics but above 20N its the best

In the deep tropics I'm more inclined to go with the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Yellow Evan]

What I've noticed is that the Euro is not all that great in the deep tropics but above 20N its the best

In the deep tropics I'm more inclined to go with the GFS

3-4 years ago, I'd say that's the case, but with the higher resolution, it doesn't appear to be as big of a deal anymore.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF still doesn't have it.

Has become the outlier.

3-4 0z EPS members interestingly enough does have 99L near where the GFS does as a developed system.

[Hurricaneman]

Im thinking the 0zEuro will start showing development even if weak and slowly move towards a tropical cyclone

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET.Weak so far.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.9N 49.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.08.2016 12.9N 51.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.08.2016 12.9N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2016 13.5N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2016 14.2N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[stormlover2013]

well the euro has tropical moisture headed that way just not a system

[Alyono]

12z Euro even less bullish than it's 00z run this morning. You can track 99L's vorticity all the way to the SW Caribbean where it doesn't develop into anything. Could the Euro be seeing something that the GFS isn't?

wouldn't even consider the Euro

How many times does it need to be stated that there is a convective issue due to its resolution

[stormlover2013]

lol wouldn't even consider the euro? come on man, maybe it has the pattern right???

[Hammy]

wouldn't even consider the Euro

How many times does it need to be stated that there is a convective issue due to its resolution

Is this causing the model to potentially miss systems that may later form?

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET is bullish at mid range.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS had similar track as Ukmet, just developed 99L after it passed through the NE Caribbean... The current position and predicted track historically have been bullseye zone for a landfall, but we are all gun shy to predict any significant development...

[Dean4Storms]

When you look at water vapor, shear, etc.. the only thing I can think that might hinder development is the attachment to the ITCZ which looks pretty bleak moisture wise. That and the MJO not in a favorable phase right now for convergence in the MDR.

[Alyono]

lol wouldn't even consider the euro? come on man, maybe it has the pattern right???

If you understood numerical weather prediction, you would understand my comment