WPAC: Ex Tropical Depression 14W

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 160819 1200 12.5N 162.5E WPAC 15 NA

North of Pohnpei...

Likely will just get absorbed into the other systems...

[1900hurricane]

I like the nod in tagging this, but I would have tagged it sooner. It looks like it might be starting to lose its identity in the slop.

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 160820 1800 14.6N 158.7E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 160821 0600 15.3N 156.9E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 220305
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 8.3N

D. 150.0E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 212344Z METOP-
B 89GHZ AND COMPOSITE MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE PULSATING SHALLOW
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ALTHOUGH SCAT PASSES WERE A MISS, ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD, YET SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENTION OF A RIDGE
ORIGINATING FROM A POINT SOURCE ABOVE TS 12W (LIONROCK). ABOVE THE
LLCC, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LIGHT (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
DIRECTLY EAST, THE VWS IS MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS). SSTS
ARE 29 CELSIUS AND ABOVE WITH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HIGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 221819
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
430 AM CHST TUE AUG 23 2016

GUZ001>004-230500-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
430 AM CHST TUE AUG 23 2016

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR
12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.7 DEGREES EAST HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP TODAY AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWEST...PASSING OVER OR NEAR GUAM SOMETIME LATER TODAY...
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND NUMEROUS
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER GUAM AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CNMI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING AND DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
TODAY WILL TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET TONIGHT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF
CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

AYDLETT/STANKO

[euro6208]

The models have slight development of this into a TS as it passes the Marianas and peaks out at sea...CMC peaks at typhoon...

GFS strengthens this to a TS just northwest of Saipan...

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 222152
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 22/2030Z

C. 11.8N

D. 146.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEARED PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER LESS 75 NM FROM A CONVECTION LARGER THAN 1.5 DEGREES YIELDS A DT
OF 1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[euro6208]

GFS takes this up to a typhoon as it interacts with another system northeast of the Marianas...

[1900hurricane]

With the exception of some ASCAT barbs that appear to be pointing in the wrong direction just south of the center, 90W is actually looking classifiable to me.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 230300
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 23/0230Z

C. 11.5N

D. 145.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.5. MET AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINT OF NOT CHANGING T-NUM MORE THAN T0.5 OVER 6HRS IN FIRST
24HRS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 230130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
285 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 146.1E TO 20.0N 143.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 232327Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A 222327Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS STRONG
(30 KNOT) GRADIENT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FROM THE LLCC, AND 20
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. A 222118 SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH NO FORMATIVE BANDING OBSERVED. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING OFFSET BY
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE PERIPHERIES, YET A SMALL AREA OF
FAVORABLE VWS VALUES LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS TRACKING THE
SYSTEM INITIALLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
TRACK BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 17 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240130Z.
//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

ATCF has 14W now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41
NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
FLARING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
230542Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM SHOW MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. AS
DEPICTED IN RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY, THERE IS AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE GALE-
FORCE WINDS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN SHOW A SPIKE IN WINDS TO 31
KNOTS SUSTAINED, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL BE RE-ASSESSED
FOR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. TD 14W IS TRACKING QUICKLY POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36
WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING UNDER MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS.
AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS ARE LIMITED BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS CLEAR CUT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
GFS, WHICH SPINS UP ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM TD 14W AND ROTATES THE TWO
SYSTEMS UNTIL THEY COMBINE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM; THIS SCENARIO
IS UNLIKELY AND RESULTS IN A SHARP EAST-NORTHEASWTARD TRACK AFTER
TAU 36. TD 14W APPEARS TO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW, BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
72, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 14W WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
HOWEVER, DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C) AND INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 230911
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP142016
800 PM CHST TUE AUG 23 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W FORMS SOUTH OF TINIAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN
AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 145.6E

ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF PAGAN
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...350 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 17 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD...
PASSING WEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN TONIGHT AND TO NEAR PAGAN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

W AYDLETT

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 230942
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
742 PM CHST TUE AUG 23 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W FORMS SOUTH OF TINIAN...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.6 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS
ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF PAGAN
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 44 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W HAS FORMED SOUTH OF TINIAN AND IS QUICKLY
MOVING TO THE NORTH. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF TINIAN
AND SAIPAN TONIGHT AND NEAR PAGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR ALAMAGAN AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
SHOULD PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

....WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS AT 35 TO 45 MPH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE AND
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOMING AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF AROUND 12 FEET WILL INITIALLY OCCUR ON SOUTH
EXPOSURES BUT WILL THEN SPREAD TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST EXPOSURES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WIND
WAVES PRODUCED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD AFFECT WEST SIDE
ANCHORAGES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

W AYDLETT/GUARD

[euro6208]

Already measuring TS force winds in extremely heavy showers...

Obs at Andersen measured 41 mph gusting to 52 mph pressure of 1005 mb...

Saipan sustained at 38 mph gusting to 51 mph 1002 mb...

[kala]

Interpolated Statistical Model runs for Lionrock and 14W on 20160823 at 18z:



Based on a python script I wrote. These runs are just for fun and likely to be highly inaccurate.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND A 231723Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND LOWERED DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NOW IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE RJTD
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TD 14W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW REFLECTS AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
TRACK DUE TO INTERACTION WITH DISTURBANCE 92W.
B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AS A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BY TAU 36 TO 48 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE 92W
CURRENTLY AT THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS BOTH TD 14W AND DISTURBANCE
92W CONSOLIDATE TOGETHER AND MERGE. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A NORTHERN TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY HINDER THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 14W WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERN TRACK
AS A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER
WATERS AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL HELP WEAKEN TD 14W, AND
FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W AND AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE.
NAVGEM, COAMPS AND ECMWF EACH LOSE THE ALREADY WEAK VORTICITY
SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 14W BEFORE INTERACTING WITH 92W,
HOWEVER THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS GO ON TO DEVELOP 92W INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IN THIS SCENARIO, 14W MAY BE FINAL WARNED SIGNIFICANTLY
SOONER THAN EXPECTED, WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL OF A SEPARATE SYSTEM
FORMING FROM 92W. HOWEVER, HWRF, GFDN, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SHOW A
SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 232206
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP142016
800 AM CHST WED AUG 24 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W MOVING PAST AGRIHAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN
AND ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 145.5E

ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 345 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...005 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 23 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 14W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
CONTINUING ITS RAPID FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TRACK
WILL TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W PAST AGRIHAN WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 AM BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

SIMPSON