CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310415
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 17 20160831
040600 1940N 15124W 6970 03161 0043 +109 +069 052036 037 031 000 00
040630 1938N 15122W 6966 03163 0046 +105 +069 050036 037 030 000 00
040700 1937N 15121W 6971 03156 0045 +104 +077 047039 039 030 000 00
040730 1936N 15120W 6967 03161 0040 +108 +078 049039 040 031 000 00
040800 1935N 15118W 6971 03155 0034 +112 +073 048040 041 034 000 00
040830 1934N 15117W 6967 03156 0030 +114 +066 048038 040 033 000 00
040900 1932N 15116W 6970 03152 0026 +117 +062 044036 038 033 000 00
040930 1931N 15114W 6970 03152 0029 +113 +068 039035 036 034 000 00
041000 1930N 15113W 6969 03149 0033 +106 +072 040039 040 034 000 00
041030 1929N 15112W 6970 03149 0035 +103 +077 038041 042 034 001 00
041100 1928N 15110W 6969 03149 0031 +105 +077 037041 042 034 000 00
041130 1926N 15109W 6967 03145 0025 +105 +083 032040 041 035 000 00
041200 1925N 15107W 6972 03138 0018 +108 +089 032041 042 036 001 00
041230 1925N 15106W 6970 03137 0006 +115 +083 027042 042 037 001 00
041300 1924N 15104W 6973 03126 9989 +124 +075 027042 043 040 001 00
041330 1923N 15102W 6969 03127 9977 +131 +073 026042 043 042 001 00
041400 1922N 15101W 6970 03121 9969 +133 +075 021042 044 044 001 00
041430 1922N 15059W 6969 03122 9967 +132 +089 016044 046 046 001 00
041500 1921N 15057W 6971 03112 9947 +143 +084 011046 048 047 000 00
041530 1921N 15055W 6971 03112 9928 +158 +078 014045 049 049 002 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310425
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 18 20160831
041600 1921N 15053W 6962 03107 9901 +173 +066 015050 053 051 001 00
041630 1920N 15052W 6984 03082 9893 +177 +069 009054 057 051 001 00
041700 1920N 15050W 6967 03094 9869 +189 +065 004048 053 052 003 03
041730 1920N 15048W 6961 03088 9839 +207 +054 004047 052 047 000 00
041800 1920N 15046W 6969 03066 9803 +231 +035 357035 043 048 002 00
041830 1920N 15044W 6970 03057 9801 +222 +049 346031 037 040 001 00
041900 1921N 15042W 6967 03049 9809 +204 +066 317013 027 024 000 03
041930 1922N 15041W 6974 03038 9808 +199 +069 262009 013 018 001 03
042000 1923N 15041W 6968 03055 9815 +204 +054 044005 010 017 000 00
042030 1925N 15041W 6964 03055 9816 +198 +054 071009 011 029 000 00
042100 1927N 15041W 6978 03045 9830 +188 +060 066018 022 042 002 00
042130 1929N 15042W 6967 03054 9828 +189 +067 078037 040 063 002 00
042200 1930N 15042W 6969 03049 9826 +184 +095 073050 055 077 008 00
042230 1932N 15043W 6986 03038 9875 +152 +127 079061 071 078 009 00
042300 1934N 15044W 6973 03060 9914 +142 +135 084075 077 069 041 03
042330 1935N 15044W 6943 03100 9851 +180 +108 081066 073 /// /// 06
042400 1935N 15043W 6998 03039 9928 +118 //// 099077 079 /// /// 05
042430 1934N 15042W 6938 03105 9971 +135 //// 101074 075 059 047 01
042500 1933N 15041W 6972 03053 9952 +149 +149 100072 075 064 029 03
042530 1931N 15041W 6973 03045 9935 +146 +146 096063 069 076 014 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Looks like 80kts and pressure is up to 980mb.

Looks like we may need a TS warning for Maui if this thing gets too close to the Big Island.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310435
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 19 20160831
042600 1930N 15040W 6961 03061 9872 +158 +153 095047 059 075 013 00
042630 1929N 15038W 6969 03061 9868 +154 //// 098047 050 071 008 01
042700 1928N 15037W 6960 03073 9912 +143 //// 115043 045 065 005 01
042730 1927N 15036W 6966 03075 9923 +129 //// 133038 045 063 005 01
042800 1926N 15035W 6961 03077 //// +118 //// 151032 037 061 003 01
042830 1925N 15034W 6976 03066 //// +138 //// 180040 045 064 003 01
042900 1924N 15033W 6960 03087 //// +114 //// 187055 064 063 004 01
042930 1923N 15032W 6974 03079 //// +102 //// 188064 066 059 004 01
043000 1922N 15031W 6965 03101 9987 +108 //// 189063 064 055 004 01
043030 1921N 15030W 6963 03107 //// +100 //// 190062 063 052 003 01
043100 1920N 15029W 6973 03102 //// +099 //// 189059 062 049 003 01
043130 1918N 15028W 6967 03115 //// +095 //// 190055 058 048 001 01
043200 1917N 15027W 6970 03115 //// +092 //// 192051 054 045 003 01
043230 1916N 15026W 6969 03123 //// +088 //// 195049 051 043 004 01
043300 1915N 15025W 6973 03118 //// +087 //// 197049 049 041 004 01
043330 1914N 15024W 6971 03124 //// +089 //// 198048 049 040 002 01
043400 1913N 15023W 6969 03132 //// +090 //// 199045 047 040 001 01
043430 1912N 15022W 6971 03133 //// +094 //// 196043 044 039 004 01
043500 1910N 15021W 6970 03141 //// +090 //// 195043 043 039 002 01
043530 1909N 15020W 6966 03149 //// +095 //// 201040 042 035 003 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

URPN15 KNHC 310525
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 24 20160831
051600 1932N 14925W 6969 03205 //// +075 //// 122045 046 020 000 01
051630 1934N 14925W 6970 03203 //// +075 //// 121046 046 020 000 01
051700 1936N 14924W 6969 03205 //// +073 //// 123046 047 019 004 01
051730 1938N 14924W 6972 03201 0148 +079 //// 121043 046 024 004 01
051800 1939N 14923W 6968 03207 0169 +088 +088 126040 045 018 008 00
051830 1941N 14923W 6969 03207 0168 +086 +086 118044 045 020 006 00
051900 1943N 14923W 6974 03201 0153 +076 //// 116043 046 019 005 01
051930 1945N 14923W 6970 03208 //// +073 //// 117041 042 021 005 01
052000 1947N 14923W 6981 03196 //// +066 //// 121042 044 022 003 01
052030 1949N 14923W 6976 03202 0140 +070 //// 124043 044 020 003 01
052100 1951N 14923W 6968 03212 //// +072 //// 120044 044 016 000 01
052130 1953N 14924W 6969 03212 //// +071 //// 119045 046 015 000 01
052200 1955N 14925W 6970 03210 0143 +073 +070 119046 047 018 001 01
052230 1957N 14925W 6971 03210 0142 +073 +072 117046 047 020 001 01
052300 1958N 14926W 6970 03211 //// +073 //// 119047 048 021 001 01
052330 2000N 14926W 6973 03208 //// +074 //// 118047 048 022 001 01
052400 2002N 14927W 6967 03215 //// +068 //// 115044 046 022 003 01
052430 2004N 14928W 6970 03212 0135 +080 +079 113045 045 024 001 00
052500 2006N 14928W 6968 03212 0133 +080 +078 116047 048 024 003 01
052530 2008N 14929W 6970 03211 0134 +079 +078 119044 047 022 003 01
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:35Z:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:45Z:

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310545
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 26 20160831
053600 2015N 15000W 6968 03206 0130 +082 //// 115039 040 028 004 01
053630 2013N 15002W 6973 03201 //// +085 //// 117041 042 028 004 01
053700 2012N 15003W 6967 03207 0132 +087 //// 121043 044 029 006 01
053730 2011N 15004W 6973 03196 0125 +088 +088 119038 042 030 007 00
053800 2009N 15006W 6972 03200 0118 +091 +091 119033 036 032 007 00
053830 2008N 15007W 6967 03205 0109 +093 +093 119030 031 032 008 00
053900 2007N 15009W 6969 03204 0104 +097 +092 117034 035 033 007 00
053930 2006N 15010W 6970 03204 0100 +100 +084 111035 035 033 006 00
054000 2004N 15011W 6968 03207 0105 +098 +083 106035 035 033 003 00
054030 2003N 15013W 6974 03200 0107 +096 +082 104037 038 033 003 00
054100 2002N 15014W 6970 03204 0112 +092 +086 104039 039 034 003 00
054130 2000N 15016W 6971 03200 0121 +092 //// 110035 038 034 005 01
054200 1959N 15017W 6969 03201 0114 +094 +094 108033 034 034 007 00
054230 1958N 15019W 6969 03201 0123 +096 +096 104036 039 036 007 00
054300 1956N 15020W 6973 03196 0123 +098 //// 106038 040 039 005 01
054330 1955N 15021W 6966 03202 0118 +097 //// 103032 034 040 005 01
054400 1954N 15023W 6971 03194 0116 +100 +100 104036 039 038 007 00
054430 1952N 15024W 6971 03194 0108 +102 +102 105040 040 037 006 00
054500 1951N 15026W 6970 03194 0114 +093 //// 110038 040 041 005 01
054530 1949N 15027W 6968 03194 0103 +103 +103 111036 039 040 005 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310555
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 27 20160831
054600 1948N 15029W 6971 03189 //// +093 //// 111033 035 040 004 01
054630 1947N 15030W 6969 03189 0105 +088 //// 114036 037 039 004 01
054700 1946N 15031W 6970 03187 0107 +091 //// 113038 039 037 005 01
054730 1944N 15033W 6969 03185 //// +078 //// 113038 039 037 004 01
054800 1943N 15034W 6970 03180 //// +077 //// 120040 041 038 003 01
054830 1942N 15035W 6968 03180 //// +085 //// 125041 041 038 004 01
054900 1940N 15037W 6974 03173 0102 +088 //// 120042 044 041 005 01
054930 1939N 15038W 6970 03182 0112 +095 //// 121045 047 040 004 01
055000 1938N 15040W 6967 03180 0106 +106 +106 120045 046 041 014 00
055030 1936N 15041W 6974 03166 0105 +101 +101 119043 044 041 013 00
055100 1935N 15042W 6967 03176 0098 +110 +110 124044 049 043 014 00
055130 1934N 15044W 6980 03151 0082 +113 +113 126045 050 046 012 03
055200 1933N 15045W 6957 03174 0085 +111 +111 123047 052 052 023 00
055230 1931N 15046W 6965 03163 0086 +110 +110 134050 052 052 023 00
055300 1930N 15048W 6972 03148 0079 +112 +112 134051 053 047 023 00
055330 1929N 15049W 6963 03151 0076 +103 //// 132057 059 045 021 05
055400 1928N 15050W 6974 03134 0067 +108 //// 142056 059 047 011 05
055430 1927N 15051W 6963 03144 0050 +114 //// 148056 057 048 008 05
055500 1926N 15053W 6975 03124 0029 +122 +122 151057 058 049 007 03
055530 1925N 15054W 6967 03126 0026 +117 //// 150061 062 051 007 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 310605
AF309 0214E MADELINE HDOB 28 20160831
055600 1924N 15056W 6970 03115 9990 +125 //// 147050 060 051 006 05
055630 1923N 15058W 6968 03113 //// +124 //// 146037 044 053 003 01
055700 1922N 15059W 6970 03101 9906 +152 +142 149022 030 048 003 03
055730 1921N 15101W 6977 03090 9876 +182 +143 143015 019 045 003 00
055800 1920N 15102W 6970 03095 9863 +188 +149 126011 014 037 002 03
055830 1918N 15103W 6965 03099 9856 +191 +149 112005 010 036 001 00
055900 1916N 15104W 6971 03088 9858 +190 +150 305005 011 039 001 00
055930 1915N 15104W 6968 03099 9869 +183 +150 276023 027 039 001 00
060000 1913N 15105W 6970 03100 9885 +174 +150 269033 035 038 001 03
060030 1912N 15106W 6972 03101 9898 +167 +145 270037 038 038 001 00
060100 1911N 15107W 6969 03110 9909 +164 +130 269038 039 038 001 00
060130 1910N 15108W 6970 03112 9921 +161 +112 273039 040 037 000 00
060200 1908N 15109W 6970 03117 9932 +157 +101 274038 039 035 001 00
060230 1907N 15110W 6969 03122 9940 +153 +099 275036 038 035 002 03
060300 1906N 15112W 6970 03123 9952 +147 +104 277034 035 036 001 00
060330 1905N 15113W 6969 03130 9965 +140 +105 284033 034 035 001 00
060400 1904N 15114W 6970 03134 9980 +132 +109 285032 034 034 001 00
060430 1903N 15115W 6972 03135 9989 +126 +116 291029 031 032 001 00
060500 1902N 15117W 6969 03141 9997 +123 +117 297027 027 031 000 00
060530 1901N 15118W 6970 03146 9999 +128 +099 289025 027 029 001 00
$$

[Alyono]

I was not expecting this at all. Seems like its weakening very rapidly based upon the aircraft data

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:15Z:

[hurricaneCW]

I was not expecting this at all. Seems like its weakening very rapidly based upon the aircraft data

I swear those islands have some sort of hurricane shield. Every system that comes close starts to rapidly weaken or veer off to the north/south.

[Alyono]

I was not expecting this at all. Seems like its weakening very rapidly based upon the aircraft data

I swear those islands have some sort of hurricane shield. Every system that comes close starts to rapidly weaken or veer off to the north/south.

I think it's the shear from the unnamed storm to the SW of Hawaii that has blasted Madeline

[hurricaneCW]

There may not be a storm left by the time it gets to Hawaii, rapidly weakening right now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 30 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows that Madeline is weakening in the
presence of increasing shear, with conventional and microwave
imagery no longer detecting an eye. Hurricane hunters with the 53rd
Weather Reconnaissance Squadron spent a good portion of the evening
flying through the cyclone, and found that it was weaker than
anticipated, and tilted with height. The aircraft was also unable to
find an eye, with maximum flight level winds near 80 kt.
Satellite-based subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were
5.0/90 kt, while data-T values ranged from 4.0/65 kt to 5.0/90 kt.
The initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 80 kt,
and this is likely generous based on the majority of the aircraft
data.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 260/10 kt.
The steering flow is being provided by a building mid-level ridge
to the north and northwest of the cyclone, which will impart a
motion just south of due west over the next 24 to 36 hours. After
this time, the ridge is expected to slide eastward, and a weakened
Madeline is expected to move toward the west-northwest in the low-
to mid-level trade wind flow. On the forecast track, the center of
Madeline will pass dangerously close to the Big Island (Hawaii
County) late Wednesday into Thursday, where a Hurricane Warning
remains in place. The updated track forecast is very close to the
previous as the bulk of the guidance suite continues to show
run-to-run consistency, and lies close to the TVCN multi-model
consensus.

Madeline has rapidly weakened over the past 24 hours, and a steady
weakening trend dominates the forecast, even as Madeline moves over
warmer water. Vertical wind shear provided by a high-level trough to
the north and northwest of the cyclone is expected to cause steady
weakening as it imparts a debilitating northerly flow aloft and
severely hampers outflow. While the updated intensity forecast is
more aggressive in weakening Madeline than the previous forecast, it
lies on the higher end of the intensity guidance. If current trends
continue, then subsequent forecast packages may need to accelerate
the weakening trend, especially given that the latest ECMWF guidance
indicates dissipation by day 3 while the GFS and HWRF indicate
degeneration to a remnant low on days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 19.2N 151.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 19.0N 153.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 18.7N 155.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.5N 157.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.6N 159.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.8N 165.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 19.2N 169.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 20.0N 174.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[NDG]

Why am I not so surprised that the NHC for the CPAC was once again too aggressive in their forecast with Madeline

[Yellow Evan]

shear seems much stronger than I thought. Stilll, any relaxation of the shear and this remains a hurricane as it passes near if not over Hawaii.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Storms always fall apart near Hawaii.

The water is to cold. No category 3 will ever hit them i assure you. Some systems survive as CAT 1