CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Storms always fall apart near Hawaii.

The water is to cold. No category 3 will ever hit them i assure you. Some systems survive as CAT 1

Problem isn't the water, it's the shear as usual.

[tolakram]

live ir

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-154&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10

[tolakram]

Storms always fall apart near Hawaii.

The water is to cold. No category 3 will ever hit them i assure you. Some systems survive as CAT 1

Iniki? Why make such a definitive and incorrect statement?

[Yellow Evan]

I can confidently say this is no longer a hurricane. Developing that typical strong TS shear look.

[NDG]

Storms always fall apart near Hawaii.

The water is to cold. No category 3 will ever hit them i assure you. Some systems survive as CAT 1

Iniki? Why make such a definitive and incorrect statement?

He probably meant to say that no Cat 3 will ever hit Hawaii coming from the east

[Ntxw]

Storms always fall apart near Hawaii.

The water is to cold. No category 3 will ever hit them i assure you. Some systems survive as CAT 1

Iniki? Why make such a definitive and incorrect statement?

He probably meant to say that no Cat 3 will ever hit Hawaii coming from the east

To note though, the water is too cold is an incorrect statement. It is the shear not the water temps. During summer water temps are often above 80, more than enough.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/770992929787772928

[JtSmarts]

Wow, shear hit Maddie much harder than Iselle. Iselle actually still looked like a somewhat organized cyclone upon approach to the Big Island despite being weaker initially than Maddie.

[dexterlabio]

A Hawaiian cyclone coming ashore with its core still intact should be given a nice trophy. While I think this is another case of Hawaii dodging a huge bullet, I would be keeping an eye on this still..especially that it's still popping some deep convection near the center..

[SEASON_CANCELED]

[dbl

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Storms always fall apart near Hawaii.

The water is to cold. No category 3 will ever hit them i assure you. Some systems survive as CAT 1

Iniki? Why make such a definitive and incorrect statement?

Once in a lifetime and was a mess when it did hit..debatable wether it was still a cat 3 or 2. It also came from the south. Storms coming from the angle of Madeline and Lester have no chance. Technically my statement was untrue but Iniki came from a stange angle.

[Yellow Evan]

Iniki? Why make such a definitive and incorrect statement?

Once in a lifetime and was a mess when it did hit..debatable wether it was still a cat 3 or 2. It also came from the south. Storms coming from the angle of Madeline and Lester have no chance. Technically my statement was untrue but Iniki came from a stange angle.

Well you weren't incorrect since Iniki hit at 125 knots (mid-grade Cat 4) according to the CPHC and IIRC had recon.

It's not impossible for a major hurricane to hit Hawaii from the east if the shear is low. Hard to do? Yes.



(Iniki near landfall)

[TheStormExpert]

Madeline earns the award for ugliest classified hurricane in the East-Central Pacific!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Next up infront of the firing squad in Lester.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA35 PHFO 311800
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
800 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016

...MADELINE WEAKENS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 153.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
watch area. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Madeline was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 153.6 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Madeline is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to develop over portions of
Hawaii County later today and continue into early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to develop over Maui County
later today and tonight, especially over mountains and where winds
blow downslope from higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to increase across
Hawaiian waters today, possibly becoming damaging along east
facing shores of Hawaii County and eastern portions of the Island of
Maui today and tonight.

RAIN: Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5
to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across
Hawaii County, especially over windward portions. Total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to
4 inches, can be expected in the islands of Maui County. This
rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: Depending on the track of Madeline, the combination of
storm surge and tides could cause normally dry areas near the coast
to become flooded. The water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground if
peak surge were to coincide with high tide. The surge would be
accompanied by large damaging surf and can vary over short
distances.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-154&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST WED AUG 31 2016

Visible satellite imagery shows that the western portion of the low
level circulation center has been exposed by continued westerly
vertical wind shear. Deep convection is confined to the northeast
quadrant and becoming increasingly distanced from the center. Dvorak
current intensity estimates range from 4.0/65 kt at HFO and JTWC to
3.5/55 kt out of SAB. For this advisory, the initial intensity is set
at 65 kt, keeping Madeline a hurricane. U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance
aircraft were scheduled to sample the hurricane this morning but have
encountered mechanical issues that have prevented this mission.

The initial motion for this advisory remains slightly south of due
west at 260/11 kt. Madeline is expected to be steered along a
similar motion into Thursday by a building low to mid level ridge to
the northwest and north. This will take the center of Madeline close
to the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) tonight. By Thursday
night or Friday, the cyclone is expected to resume a westerly
track, away from the main Hawaiian Islands, through Monday. The
forecast track has been changed little from the prior advisory and
runs along the northern portion of a rather tightly clustered
guidance envelope. There is some along track differences in the
guidance, with the ECMWF being notably faster with the forward
motion of Madeline.

Madeline will continue to weaken during the next several days under
the influence of vertical wind shear produced by the upper level
trough dropping over Hawaii. The official intensity forecast
follows SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN closely through 48 hours. Beyond that
time the guidance diverges due to a weakening of the vertical wind
shear. The rate of weakening was slowed slightly from the prior
advisory, though a fair amount of guidance members show
re-intensification when the cyclone is well west-southwest of Hawaii.
Due to this, interests near Johnston Atoll should monitor the
progress of Madeline.

Due to the intensity trend and growing confidence in the track
forecast, hurricane conditions are no longer expected on land, and
the Hurricane Warning for the Big island has been replaced by a
Tropical Storm Warning. Under a Tropical Storm Warning, people on
the Big Island can still expect damaging winds, very large and
dangerous surf, and the continued threat of flash flooding.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 18.6N 154.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 155.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.8N 160.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.8N 163.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.9N 168.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 18.0N 173.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 18.4N 177.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[Alyono]

Madeline seems to have recovered just a little bit as the shear drops off.

TS winds ongoing now

[Alyono]

URPN15 KNHC 312251
AF309 0314E MADELINE HDOB 13 20160831
224200 1825N 15437W 6970 03128 9954 +148 +100 028043 045 031 002 00
224230 1824N 15436W 6968 03127 9949 +150 +088 034038 041 024 000 00
224300 1823N 15434W 6972 03121 9943 +155 +085 034035 039 020 001 00
224330 1822N 15433W 6971 03122 9931 +167 +079 032034 036 015 000 00
224400 1821N 15431W 6967 03125 9935 +162 +075 033028 032 011 001 00
224430 1820N 15430W 6968 03124 9941 +157 +082 031022 025 010 000 00
224500 1819N 15428W 6964 03127 9936 +157 +084 027017 021 010 000 00
224530 1818N 15426W 6967 03121 9936 +155 +094 014010 012 012 000 03
224600 1817N 15425W 6968 03127 9963 +136 +108 056003 009 010 001 00
224630 1817N 15423W 6964 03128 9965 +132 +109 130008 009 015 001 00
224700 1817N 15421W 6969 03123 9962 +136 +106 150012 014 020 001 00
224730 1817N 15419W 6964 03130 9964 +134 +106 154015 019 021 001 00
224800 1817N 15417W 6970 03123 9976 +125 +113 175023 024 027 002 00
224830 1817N 15415W 6959 03140 9987 +118 +115 175024 025 030 001 01
224900 1817N 15414W 6972 03119 //// +116 //// 181024 025 033 002 05
224930 1815N 15412W 6964 03136 9987 +119 +117 190024 024 033 002 00
225000 1814N 15411W 6965 03139 //// +108 //// 203028 030 033 002 01
225030 1813N 15410W 6966 03141 //// +105 //// 200026 030 028 002 01
225100 1812N 15409W 6968 03139 //// +103 //// 209028 028 028 001 01
225130 1810N 15408W 6966 03146 //// +104 //// 209027 029 027 001 01

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be a 50 knot TS based on recon, but pressures still around 998mbar.