CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Madeline was downgraded to a tropical storm at the 2 PM HST intermediate advisory but the thread title still shows it as a hurricane.

WTPA35 PHFO 010000
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MADELINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
200 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016

...MADELINE WEAKENING AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 154.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the watch area, in this case over the next
12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 154.6 West. Madeline is
moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
During the past several hours, wind gusts as high as 60 mph (97
km/h) have been reported in North Kohala in Hawaii County.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
Hawaii County through tonight and will develop over portions of
Maui County later today and tonight. Winds will be strongest over
mountains and where winds blow downslope from higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will peak across Hawaiian waters
this afternoon and early evening, possibly becoming damaging along
east facing shores of Hawaii County.

RAIN: Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5
to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across
Hawaii County, especially over windward areas and the Kau District.
Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts up to 4 inches, can be expected in the islands of Maui
County, mainly over windward terrain. This rainfall may lead to
dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/771138276686237696

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016

The satellite presentation of Madeline continues to degrade. The
low level center remains partially exposed in the southwestern
semicircle, and deep convection is confined to the northeast
quadrant. Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 45 kt out of
SAB, 55 from HFO, and 65 kt from JTWC. A U.S. Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty locating the center and
reported a maximum surface wind of 44 kt in the northwest quadrant.
However, the aircraft may not have sampled the strongest winds in
the northeast quadrant. Given the aircraft data and a blend of the
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 250/11 kt. Madeline is being
steered west-southwestward by a strong low to mid level ridge to the
northwest and north of Hawaii. Along this track, Madeline will pass
just south of the Big Island of Hawaii (Hawaii County) tonight. On
Thursday, the cyclone is expected to resume a westerly track, away
from the main Hawaiian Islands, and continue moving generally
westward through Monday. The forecast track has been changed little
from the prior advisory and continues to run along the northern
portion of a rather tightly clustered dynamical model guidance
envelope. There are some along track differences in the guidance,
with the ECMWF being notably faster with the forward motion of
Madeline.

Madeline will continue to weaken during the next two days under the
influence of vertical wind shear produced by an upper level trough
dropping over Hawaii. The official intensity forecast follows SHIPS
and IVCN closely through 48 hours. Beyond that time the guidance
diverges due to a weakening of the vertical wind shear, with SHIPS
and IVCN holding Madeline at tropical storm intensity through day
five and HWRF steadily weakening the cyclone. The official forecast
assumes that the vertical wind shear will be strong enough to weaken
Madeline to a tropical depression on Saturday and that
re-intensification will be unlikely, as Madeline will remain near
the upper level trough axis.

With Madeline passing just south of the Big Island tonight, a
Tropical Storm Warning remains posted for the Big island, where
numerous observing sites have been reporting tropical storm force
gusts today. Maui County also remains under a Tropical Storm
Warning, as winds will be accelerated over and around mountainous
terrain tonight.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 18.0N 155.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.7N 156.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 17.5N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.4N 161.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.4N 164.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.4N 169.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 17.6N 174.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 18.1N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[galaxy401]

On the floater you can see the convection being pushed back by the volcanoes in Hawaii. The circulation is getting spit out.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 PM HST WED AUG 31 2016

All data sources indicate that Madeline continues to steadily
weaken, with a severely degraded satellite appearance. Now that the
decaying cyclone is beginning to slowly distance itself from the
main Hawaiian Islands, hurricane hunters from the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron are making their final flight into Madeline.
The aircraft found the poorly defined low-level center further south
and east than expected, close to an area of newly-developed deep
convection seen in infrared satellite images. Highest flight-level
winds were on the order of 40 kt, while SFMR detected winds as high
as 49 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Radar data from South Point
on the Big Island earlier detected a well-developed mid-level
circulation that was displaced northeastward from where the
low-level center appeared to be, due to southwesterly shear,
estimated to be near 18 kt by UW-CIMSS analyses. Based on a
conservative blend of the aircraft data, the initial intensity for
this advisory has been reduced to 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 260/12 kt. The primary
steering flow for the increasingly shallow cyclone is being provided
by a strong low to mid level ridge to the northwest and north of
Hawaii, and this feature will keep Madeline heading generally
toward the west over the next couple of days. The guidance suite is
more tightly clustered than 24 hours ago, except for some
along-track differences in the reliable guidance, with the ECMWF
indicating a faster forward speed than the GFS. The updated track
forecast parallels the previous after accounting for a southward
shift in the initial position, and lies close to the TVCN
consensus.

Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a
hurricane, the intensity forecast anticipates that the cyclone will
continue to steadily weaken due to debilitating shear provided by a
retrograding upper-level trough now centered to the northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. The expectation is that Madeline will weaken to a
depression by Friday, a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation
occurring by day 5, in line with guidance provided by the GFS and
ECMWF. While SHIPS and LGEM indicate some reintensification in the
later forecast, this does not appear likely at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.7N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.6N 160.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.4N 163.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.2N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 170.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 17.5N 175.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016

After a several hour period where Madeline had a rather ragged
satellite presentation, a burst of deep convection developed near
the center around midnight, and has since persisted with an
abundance of lightning. Latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW were a unanimous 3.0/45 kt, and the
initial intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is once again 260/12 kt.
Although Madeline has been moving toward the southwest over the
past couple of hours, guidance indicates that a westward movement
will resume shortly as Madeline is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge centered to the north and northwest of the cyclone. As
Madeline nears the southwestern periphery of the ridge on days 3
and 4, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The updated
track forecast is near the center of the reliable guidance suite
and the previous forecast, and closely follows the latest HWRF
guidance.

Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a strong
hurricane, the intensity forecast continues to anticipate Madeline
steadily weakening until dissipation occurs on day 5. The primary
factor driving this forecast is moderate to strong southwesterly to
westerly shear supplied by a retrograding upper-level trough now
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. While SHIPS indicates some
reintensification in the later forecast periods, the official
forecast follows trends presented by the GFS and ECMWF, which
indicate dissipation by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.7N 157.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.5N 158.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.5N 161.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.3N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.3N 166.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.0N 170.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 18.0N 174.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016

The satellite presentation show a slight increase in deep convection
near the difficult to locate low level circulation center (LLCC) of
Madeline since the last advisory. A 0511Z AMSU pass was helpful in
determining the location of the LLCC, and based on satellite
animations, the initial motion of Madeline is set to 265 degrees at
13 knots. The latest Dvorak fixes from the satellite agencies were
too weak to classify from SAB, 1.5/25-30kt from JTWC to 2.5/35kt
from PHFO. Based on a blend of the PHFO and JTWC current
intensities, Madeline has been downgraded to a 30kt Tropical
Depression.

Madeline will continue to track off to the west over the next few
days on the southern periphery of a deep layered sub-tropical ridge
north of Hawaii. The official CPHC track forecast was shifted
shifted slightly to the south of the previous advisory, to closely
follow the multi-model consensus TVCN over the next 36 hours, and
the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) consensus from 36 hours through dissipation.

Madeline is encountering light to moderate southwesterly
vertical wind shear based on the UW-CIMSS product and SHIPS
analysis. This wind shear in combination with very dry mid-level air
will counteract very favorable sea surface temperatures of 28 to
29C, and lead to slow weakening over the next couple of days.
Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Friday or
Friday night, with dissipation expected by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.3N 160.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 162.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.0N 165.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1800Z 16.0N 168.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 16.0N 171.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Ballard

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016

The only thing left of Madeline in the morning visible satellite
images is a low level cloud swirl with separated, disorganized deep
convection east and south of the center. The initial position
was adjusted slightly north from the previous track based on the
clearly visible position in the images. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates were 2.0/30 kt from CPHC and 1.5/25 kt from JTWC. Given
the poor appearance of Madeline in the satellite images, the initial
intensity will be lowered to 25 kt for this advisory.

Despite the warm sea surface temperatures, Madeline has not been
able to overcome the moderate to strong vertical wind shear
combined with the dry mid-level conditions to its west. These
conditions are not expected to change much in the next day or so
which makes restrengthening unlikely. Thus, Madeline is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 12- to 24-hours
then dissipate in about 48-hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.5N 163.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 166.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 168.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 16.7N 171.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama

[hurricanes1234]

Surprisingly the 12z guidance shows Madeline reintensifying to a tropical storm.