CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

GFS and HWRF have a very strong ridge to force Madeline south. GFDL and Euro north.

[Alyono]

EC was initialized laughably too weak

[Kingarabian]

EC was initialized laughably too weak

Throw out this run you think?

[Alyono]

EC was initialized laughably too weak

Throw out this run you think?

nah. The heading is solid. However, it will be a LOT more intense than it is forecasting

[Kingarabian]

EC was initialized laughably too weak

Throw out this run you think?

nah. The heading is solid. However, it will be a LOT more intense than it is forecasting

It's better a TS warning be issued and a Hurricane warning tomorrow. Because the Euro, CMC, and the GFDL all have the Big Island under the gun.

[Alyono]

what I would do is issue a TS warning for Hilo and Kona, and a Hurricane Warning for the South Point area

[Hunabku]

Very impressive hurricane in the Central Pacific given that we might head to a la nina...

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is positive with increased SSTs that are 1-2C above average in the latitude of Hawaii. We can expect more hurricanes going forward for Hawaii if the PDO persists along with the added ocean heat of global warming and the fact that modoki (central pac) SST anomalies have become much more common since early 1990s.

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 300850
TCDCP5

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016

Madeline remains very well organized this evening, with an earlier
13 nm diameter eye now beginning to shrink. There is little or no
shear deformation present, with excellent outflow noted to the
north. Deep convection continues to completely encircle the eye,
with eyewall cloud top temperatures cooling a bit more to near -72
degrees Celsius. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
are 6.0/115 kt from all three satellite analysis centers, while
UW-CIMSS provides an ADT of 5.5/102 kt. We will assign Madeline an
initial intensity of 115 kt for this advisory cycle, based on the
unanimous satellite center intensities. Hurricane hunters from the
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are slated to begin flying
investigative flights into Madeline Tuesday morning, which will
give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and
size.

Initial motion is 280/08 kt as the anticipated trend toward a more
westerly track appears to be taking hold. Track guidance remains
tightly packed through 36 hours, but begins to diverge noticeably
after that. Madeline is tracking along the southern flank of the
subtropical ridge, but an upper trough northwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands allowed this system to gain latitude over the past
few days. Global models show this upper trough will lift northward
through 48 hours, giving the ridge a larger steering role by
nudging Madeline westward and west southwestward through day 2.
Beyond 72 hours, the upper trough is forecast to begin digging
southward again, causing another track bend to the west northwest
on day 3 and beyond. Track guidance diverges beyond 36 hours as the
models handle the redigging upper trough differently. There are a
few models that take Madeline over southern portions of the Big
Island, notably GFDL and ECMWF. However other models, notably GFS
and FSSE, take Madeline noticeably farther south of the Big
Island. The forecast track for this advisory closely resembles the
last one, following TVCN consensus down the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Satellite loop suggests Madeline has likely reached peak intensity
and all guidance shows weakening through day 5 at various rates.
SHIPS, mainly citing SST potential, weakens Madeline very quickly to
a tropical storm by 72 hours. In contrast, the global models and
HWRF weaken madeline very gradually. Our forecast follows a middle
road, maintaining Madeline as a hurricane through day 4 along the
IVCN consensus path.

Users are reminded to not focus too closely on the deterministic
forecast track, and that hazards associated with hurricanes can
extend well away from the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 19.1N 147.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 19.2N 148.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 19.1N 150.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 18.5N 154.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 18.4N 158.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.9N 163.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 19.8N 168.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

[tolakram]

live IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-150&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30

[Blown Away]

Maddy going to make a little left cut to miss the Big Island... I'm fascinated how the storms miss Hawaii over and over...

[terstorm1012]

I wonder if Mauna Kea and Loa will decapitate Maddy as it passes on Thursday.

[Ntxw]

She's weakened some this morning from cat 4. Probably not even a major with the eye covered.

[Blown Away]

If Maddy landfalls on the Big Island, I think it will be first hurricane to hit the Big Island since at least 1949... Amazing...

[Blown Away]

Maddy's track inching closer to the Big Island...

WTPA45 PHFO 301438
TCDCP5

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 AM HST TUE AUG 30 2016

Madeline's satellite presentation degraded overnight, with the eye
becoming cloud covered. The CDO has lost much of its symmetry, with
outflow becoming impaired to the south and west. Outflow remains
excellent to the north and northeast. Deep convection around the
LLCC remains robust, with cloud top temperatures colder than -70
degrees Celsius. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
range from 5.5/102 kt from JTWC and SAB to 6.0/115 kt from PHFO,
while UW-CIMSS provided a noticeably lower ADT of 5.2/95 kt. We
will assign Madeline an initial intensity of 105 kt for this
advisory cycle, based on a rough average of the intensity
estimates. Hurricane hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron are slated to begin flying investigative flights into
Madeline later this morning, which will give us valuable information
as to Madeline's actual intensity and size.

Initial motion is 280/09 kt. However, Madeline's westward track
component keeps increasing as six hour motion is closer to 270/09
kt. Madeline is tracking along the southern flank of the subtropical
ridge, but an upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
allowed this system to gain latitude over the past few days. Global
models show this upper trough will lift northward through 48 hours,
giving the ridge a larger steering role by nudging Madeline westward
and west southwestward through day 2. Beyond 72 hours, the upper
trough is forecast to begin digging southward again, causing another
track bend to the west northwest on day 3 and beyond. Like before,
there are a few models that take Madeline over southern portions of
the Big Island, notably GFDL and ECMWF. However other models,
notably GFS, take Madeline noticeably farther south of the Big
Island. Small cosmetic changes were made to the forecast track at
48, 96 and 120 hours to keep it aligned with TVCN consensus, which
has handled this system superbly so far and lies firmly within the
guidance envelope.

Madeline reached peak intensity last evening but is now beginning
what is expected to be a gradual weakening trend through day 5. All
guidance shows weakening at various rates. The global models,
especially ECMWF, want to keep Madeline a hurricane through the
entire forecast period. In contrast, SHIPS reduces Madeline to a
tropical storm by 48 hours, due mainly to low SST potential and 20
kt of vertical shear depicted after 24 hours. Our forecast weakens
Madeline to a tropical storm after day 3 along a trend slightly
stronger than TCVN consensus. Most importantly, we keep this system
at hurricane strength as it passes just south of the Big Island of
Hawaii between 36 and 48 hours.

Users are reminded to not focus too closely on the deterministic
forecast track, and that hazards associated with hurricanes can
extend well away from the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 19.3N 148.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.4N 149.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 19.1N 151.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 18.8N 153.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 155.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.6N 159.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 19.4N 164.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 20.2N 169.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

[JtSmarts]

Looks like the CPHC has Maddie as a 80-85 mph storm passing just below the Big Island. This could be bad for them as a much weaker Iselle caused a lot of problems.

[cycloneye]

Almost at the eye.

URPN15 KNHC 301718
AF309 0114E MADELINE HDOB 17 20160830
170830 2017N 14945W 6967 03194 //// +085 //// 076039 040 028 002 01
170900 2016N 14944W 6966 03194 0099 +089 +083 077041 042 027 001 00
170930 2015N 14943W 6965 03194 0095 +089 +086 077041 042 025 002 00
171000 2014N 14942W 6967 03192 0091 +094 +079 073039 040 025 001 00
171030 2013N 14940W 6971 03186 0087 +096 +080 074039 040 026 001 00
171100 2011N 14939W 6963 03193 0090 +091 +083 073038 039 028 001 00
171130 2010N 14938W 6971 03183 0088 +095 +083 073039 039 026 001 00
171200 2009N 14937W 6960 03194 0083 +094 +080 073039 039 023 001 00
171230 2008N 14936W 6958 03198 0088 +092 +077 073036 037 024 001 00
171300 2007N 14934W 6973 03180 0091 +088 +085 074035 036 024 001 00
171330 2006N 14933W 6962 03189 0087 +090 +084 072035 035 024 001 00
171400 2005N 14932W 6970 03180 0082 +093 +081 071035 035 026 000 00
171430 2003N 14931W 6963 03185 0085 +090 +082 073035 035 027 001 00
171500 2002N 14929W 6967 03181 0086 +088 +082 071034 035 029 000 00
171530 2001N 14928W 6965 03182 0082 +091 +078 070035 035 030 001 00
171600 2000N 14927W 6967 03177 0077 +095 +076 067035 035 031 001 00
171630 1959N 14926W 6970 03174 0076 +095 +079 069035 036 032 001 00
171700 1958N 14924W 6966 03179 0071 +097 +079 070036 036 032 002 00
171730 1956N 14923W 6959 03186 0074 +094 +080 069038 039 031 002 00
171800 1955N 14922W 6966 03177 0072 +094 +075 067040 041 035 000 00

[cycloneye]

URPN15 KNHC 301728
AF309 0114E MADELINE HDOB 18 20160830
171830 1954N 14921W 6967 03175 0072 +094 +075 066040 041 036 000 00
171900 1953N 14919W 6963 03176 0071 +093 +079 065040 041 037 001 00
171930 1952N 14918W 6967 03172 0069 +093 +083 063040 041 037 001 00
172000 1951N 14917W 6962 03177 0071 +087 +086 064039 041 034 001 01
172030 1950N 14916W 6967 03170 0069 +091 +083 066039 039 035 001 00
172100 1948N 14914W 6966 03170 //// +088 //// 067040 041 037 000 01
172130 1947N 14913W 6974 03159 0061 +094 +083 065041 041 037 001 00
172200 1946N 14912W 6961 03172 0056 +099 +080 063041 043 039 001 00
172230 1945N 14911W 6963 03169 0059 +091 +087 066046 048 042 000 01
172300 1944N 14910W 6966 03163 //// +088 //// 068049 050 044 001 01
172330 1943N 14908W 6966 03160 //// +086 //// 068050 050 044 000 01
172400 1942N 14907W 6967 03158 0053 +093 +086 065051 052 044 000 00
172430 1940N 14906W 6973 03149 //// +091 //// 065050 052 044 001 01
172500 1939N 14905W 6965 03154 //// +094 //// 067053 053 044 001 01
172530 1938N 14904W 6961 03155 //// +085 //// 066055 055 043 001 01
172600 1937N 14902W 6956 03161 //// +088 //// 065056 057 047 000 01
172630 1936N 14901W 6961 03148 //// +087 //// 065057 058 048 002 01
172700 1935N 14900W 6958 03148 //// +084 //// 067060 061 049 003 01
172730 1934N 14859W 6973 03126 //// +089 //// 070058 060 048 003 01
172800 1933N 14858W 6968 03127 //// +095 //// 071062 062 047 003 01
$$

[1900hurricane]

I'm curious to see what recon finds, especially with an eye trying to emerge once again from the CDO. Also, it appears Madeline has decreased in size some from yesterday.

[cycloneye]

971 mbs lowest.

URPN15 KNHC 301738
AF309 0114E MADELINE HDOB 19 20160830
172830 1932N 14857W 6958 03137 //// +100 //// 066059 061 050 001 01
172900 1930N 14855W 6960 03126 9976 +117 +098 056057 058 057 002 00
172930 1929N 14854W 6964 03113 9944 +137 +085 056057 058 065 002 00
173000 1928N 14853W 6958 03105 9925 +143 +078 052058 058 071 002 00
173030 1927N 14852W 6957 03102 9912 +148 +073 046056 057 075 004 00
173100 1926N 14850W 6975 03075 9908 +139 +100 052061 066 079 004 00
173130 1925N 14849W 6972 03059 9892 +139 +113 056068 072 081 007 00
173200 1923N 14848W 6963 03049 9879 +134 +123 060084 088 087 029 00
173230 1922N 14847W 6957 03032 9822 +154 +109 051087 089 090 033 03
173300 1921N 14846W 6957 02991 9830 +135 +135 055083 090 094 052 00
173330 1920N 14845W 6955 02956 9792 +136 //// 060065 081 110 013 05
173400 1919N 14843W 6969 02918 9749 +133 //// 069046 058 102 029 05
173430 1918N 14843W 6970 02906 9717 +141 +130 073025 040 039 002 00
173500 1916N 14842W 6972 02902 9714 +136 +130 128012 017 032 001 05
173530 1914N 14841W 6965 02910 //// +124 //// 204007 013 030 003 05
173600 1913N 14843W 6958 02918 9713 +142 +131 324015 023 029 001 00
173630 1912N 14845W 6949 02942 9713 +156 +130 321045 059 028 001 03
173700 1911N 14846W 6965 02963 9736 +175 +119 309075 079 /// /// 03
173730 1909N 14845W 6950 03003 9770 +165 +109 293075 078 057 003 03
173800 1907N 14843W 6961 03011 9815 +142 +130 272071 076 073 004 00

[Blown Away]

Wow, if this nudges a little north and hits directly on the Big Island with @Cat 2 winds it will make Madeline a legend...