EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

So much close call action for Hawaii... What is causing this and how is it the Big Island has never been hit by a cane coming from the east??

2 factors:
1: Strong shear.
2: There's either a trough at the nick of time or a ridge dominates to force things west and away form the Islands.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020458
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 16 20160902
044830 2028N 15120W 6942 03247 0136 +091 -079 100019 020 024 000 00
044900 2029N 15118W 6961 03225 0134 +094 -046 100018 019 024 000 00
044930 2029N 15116W 6966 03221 0134 +097 -065 097018 018 021 000 00
045000 2030N 15114W 6974 03218 0135 +102 -146 093018 018 019 000 03
045030 2030N 15112W 6961 03230 0132 +105 -151 089018 019 014 001 03
045100 2031N 15111W 6961 03230 0133 +101 -137 089020 020 019 001 00
045130 2033N 15109W 6951 03238 0129 +100 -151 090021 021 019 001 03
045200 2034N 15108W 6953 03233 0129 +100 -180 093022 022 022 001 00
045230 2036N 15106W 6951 03235 0130 +097 -149 095021 022 023 000 00
045300 2038N 15105W 6952 03235 0131 +097 -157 096021 022 023 000 00
045330 2040N 15103W 6953 03235 0132 +100 -176 098020 021 025 000 03
045400 2041N 15100W 6955 03232 0130 +100 -177 100016 019 /// /// 03
045430 2039N 15058W 6960 03229 0136 +095 -082 102013 014 022 000 00
045500 2037N 15056W 6952 03237 0134 +095 -052 101013 014 023 000 03
045530 2035N 15054W 6954 03235 0132 +095 -045 099012 013 023 000 00
045600 2034N 15053W 6953 03236 0132 +095 -035 097013 013 024 000 03
045630 2032N 15051W 6953 03236 0133 +095 -021 096013 013 024 000 00
045700 2030N 15049W 6954 03235 0134 +095 -019 093012 013 023 000 00
045730 2028N 15047W 6953 03235 0132 +095 -032 090012 013 022 000 00
045800 2026N 15045W 6953 03235 0129 +095 -037 088012 013 022 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020538
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 20 20160902
052830 2005N 14829W 6951 03225 0114 +094 +013 069037 038 031 000 00
052900 2005N 14826W 6955 03221 0107 +099 +016 068035 037 030 000 00
052930 2006N 14824W 6951 03225 0109 +095 +039 068035 035 030 000 00
053000 2007N 14821W 6953 03224 0105 +098 +057 069033 034 030 001 00
053030 2008N 14819W 6952 03225 0106 +096 +059 066031 032 030 000 00
053100 2008N 14816W 6953 03225 0108 +097 +060 066030 031 030 000 00
053130 2009N 14814W 6953 03225 0110 +095 +063 065029 030 030 000 00
053200 2010N 14811W 6952 03226 0114 +090 +067 062028 029 030 000 00
053230 2011N 14809W 6961 03220 0116 +092 +067 059028 028 032 000 00
053300 2011N 14807W 6962 03216 0118 +091 +070 062031 031 032 001 00
053330 2012N 14804W 6967 03210 0122 +089 +076 061031 031 032 000 00
053400 2012N 14803W 6973 03205 0124 +088 +075 058030 031 030 001 00
053430 2013N 14801W 6965 03215 0120 +090 +073 056030 031 029 002 03
053500 2013N 14759W 6958 03224 0122 +090 +072 054031 032 027 001 00
053530 2011N 14758W 6966 03211 0122 +090 +072 053031 032 027 001 00
053600 2010N 14757W 6969 03209 0118 +090 +072 055031 032 026 001 00
053630 2009N 14756W 6966 03213 0119 +092 +061 058032 033 027 001 00
053700 2008N 14754W 6986 03187 0124 +085 +074 061035 036 025 002 00
053730 2006N 14753W 6955 03222 0124 +085 +067 065038 039 027 001 00
053800 2005N 14752W 6954 03222 0125 +082 +068 064039 039 028 001 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020548
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 21 20160902
053830 2004N 14750W 6959 03219 0124 +083 +073 064040 040 027 001 00
053900 2003N 14749W 6964 03213 0125 +083 +077 064041 041 028 001 00
053930 2002N 14748W 6981 03192 //// +080 //// 064041 042 028 001 01
054000 2001N 14747W 6981 03189 0125 +080 +077 063040 041 029 001 01
054030 1959N 14745W 6976 03196 //// +080 //// 063040 041 028 001 01
054100 1958N 14744W 6969 03203 //// +079 //// 061039 040 029 001 01
054130 1957N 14743W 6961 03213 0120 +084 +080 060039 039 029 001 00
054200 1956N 14742W 6970 03200 //// +080 //// 059039 039 030 001 01
054230 1955N 14740W 6966 03204 0123 +080 +078 055038 038 029 001 01
054300 1953N 14739W 6975 03193 0119 +084 +079 052038 039 029 001 01
054330 1952N 14738W 6969 03202 0114 +085 +080 053041 045 028 001 01
054400 1951N 14736W 6969 03200 0112 +088 +078 056045 046 030 001 00
054430 1950N 14735W 6978 03188 0110 +090 +075 058043 043 029 002 00
054500 1949N 14734W 6983 03181 0108 +090 +062 055043 045 029 002 00
054530 1947N 14733W 6962 03202 0110 +082 +067 057047 048 028 002 00
054600 1946N 14731W 6943 03225 0109 +084 +072 057047 048 029 003 00
054630 1945N 14730W 6950 03217 0106 +086 +076 060047 048 030 002 00
054700 1944N 14729W 6961 03203 0102 +086 +081 057044 047 030 002 00
054730 1943N 14728W 6967 03194 0104 +087 +077 057052 055 030 002 00
054800 1942N 14726W 6963 03197 0104 +085 +075 057053 055 030 003 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020558
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 22 20160902
054830 1940N 14725W 6967 03191 0102 +085 +074 060052 054 031 003 00
054900 1939N 14724W 6966 03191 0109 +079 +078 059053 055 030 003 01
054930 1938N 14723W 6965 03189 //// +078 //// 064056 056 033 002 01
055000 1937N 14721W 6971 03180 //// +078 //// 066057 057 032 003 01
055030 1936N 14720W 6970 03178 0102 +077 //// 067058 059 033 004 01
055100 1935N 14719W 6974 03172 0096 +082 //// 067057 058 035 005 01
055130 1934N 14718W 6974 03170 0095 +082 //// 067057 057 037 004 01
055200 1933N 14717W 6975 03166 //// +083 //// 065053 056 037 003 01
055230 1931N 14716W 6973 03166 //// +085 //// 064055 058 038 003 01
055300 1930N 14714W 6974 03163 //// +089 //// 063059 060 041 002 05
055330 1929N 14713W 6969 03166 //// +085 //// 064061 063 040 004 01
055400 1928N 14712W 6969 03164 0083 +085 //// 065061 064 040 004 01
055430 1927N 14711W 6967 03163 //// +084 //// 063065 067 043 003 01
055500 1926N 14710W 6971 03153 //// +081 //// 063065 067 043 003 01
055530 1925N 14709W 6970 03149 //// +089 //// 063063 063 046 003 01
055600 1924N 14707W 6963 03153 //// +092 //// 060068 073 047 004 01
055630 1923N 14706W 6962 03149 0067 +093 //// 058066 072 048 006 01
055700 1922N 14705W 6962 03146 0072 +092 +092 059067 071 050 011 00
055730 1920N 14704W 6959 03137 0055 +098 +098 061071 072 052 010 00
055800 1919N 14703W 6963 03124 0049 +102 +102 063069 070 054 011 03
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020608
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 23 20160902
055830 1918N 14702W 6962 03118 0040 +105 +105 063072 076 /// /// 03
055900 1917N 14701W 6966 03108 0039 +100 +100 064072 073 056 013 03
055930 1916N 14659W 6967 03099 0028 +100 +100 062072 073 059 010 00
060000 1915N 14658W 6969 03092 0016 +102 +102 063072 073 058 009 00
060030 1914N 14657W 6970 03084 0007 +103 +103 063079 081 061 008 00
060100 1913N 14656W 6967 03079 9999 +103 +103 064086 087 063 011 00
060130 1912N 14655W 6966 03069 9983 +105 +105 062086 087 065 014 03
060200 1911N 14654W 6960 03068 9971 +107 +107 057088 089 065 018 00
060230 1910N 14653W 6962 03052 9962 +107 +107 055087 091 067 019 03
060300 1909N 14652W 6963 03037 9945 +110 +110 058095 096 068 025 03
060330 1908N 14651W 6966 03019 9928 +111 +111 061096 097 075 025 00
060400 1907N 14650W 6967 03001 9907 +111 +111 064096 097 077 030 03
060430 1906N 14649W 6969 02980 9882 +114 +114 067097 099 077 033 03
060500 1905N 14648W 6970 02962 9854 +122 +122 067101 105 083 031 00
060530 1904N 14647W 6962 02948 9831 +122 +122 063101 107 089 022 00
060600 1903N 14646W 6957 02928 9796 +120 +120 065103 108 095 019 00
060630 1902N 14645W 6968 02888 9737 +135 //// 065084 096 100 008 01
060700 1901N 14644W 6986 02843 //// +145 //// 067065 077 100 006 01
060730 1900N 14643W 7010 02795 //// +152 //// 071049 059 090 002 05
060800 1858N 14642W 6981 02817 //// +142 //// 069038 044 046 002 01
$$
;

[Yellow Evan]

At least 100 knots based on recon

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020618
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 24 20160902
060830 1857N 14641W 6963 02832 //// +148 //// 072026 034 036 002 01
060900 1855N 14640W 6973 02811 9593 +161 +156 073017 025 027 001 03
060930 1853N 14640W 6970 02812 9587 +163 +159 102005 010 016 002 00
061000 1852N 14639W 6976 02799 9582 +165 +159 238009 015 013 002 00
061030 1850N 14638W 6970 02810 9580 +171 +157 245025 029 023 001 00
061100 1849N 14637W 6958 02838 9593 +169 +157 245041 048 034 003 00
061130 1847N 14635W 6992 02819 9625 +164 +154 242061 067 049 002 00
061200 1846N 14634W 6978 02856 9658 +152 +152 237079 083 066 004 01
061230 1845N 14633W 6958 02917 9707 +146 +139 237088 094 074 003 00
061300 1843N 14631W 6970 02935 9760 +137 +135 236095 101 074 006 01
061330 1842N 14630W 6973 02956 9808 +124 //// 233102 105 074 006 01
061400 1841N 14629W 6959 03002 //// +111 //// 229087 097 068 004 01
061430 1840N 14627W 6954 03031 //// +103 //// 225088 089 065 003 01
061500 1839N 14626W 6949 03053 9926 +109 //// 225084 087 059 004 01
061530 1838N 14625W 6949 03071 //// +098 //// 224085 086 057 004 01
061600 1836N 14624W 6955 03074 //// +096 //// 224081 082 055 003 01
061630 1835N 14623W 6957 03082 //// +090 //// 224076 079 053 003 01
061700 1834N 14621W 6962 03089 9988 +096 //// 221071 075 051 004 01
061730 1833N 14620W 6970 03092 0009 +108 //// 216064 071 050 006 01
061800 1832N 14619W 6967 03097 0002 +111 +111 216063 066 049 008 03
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Pressure @ 958mb.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 020628
AF309 0313E LESTER HDOB 25 20160902
061830 1831N 14618W 6959 03113 0025 +108 +108 218060 063 049 011 00
061900 1829N 14616W 6958 03121 0037 +104 //// 218060 063 047 005 01
061930 1828N 14615W 6961 03124 0023 +099 //// 218060 060 047 005 01
062000 1827N 14614W 6964 03125 0029 +087 //// 220060 061 048 004 01
062030 1826N 14613W 6963 03133 0069 +077 //// 218059 061 047 004 01
062100 1825N 14611W 6958 03143 //// +082 //// 216057 059 044 004 01
062130 1824N 14610W 6957 03151 //// +083 //// 216055 057 042 004 01
062200 1822N 14609W 6963 03147 //// +085 //// 216055 055 040 003 01
062230 1821N 14608W 6974 03138 //// +086 //// 214051 055 038 003 01
062300 1820N 14607W 6970 03142 //// +087 //// 217050 050 037 003 01
062330 1819N 14605W 6963 03155 //// +081 //// 220049 050 037 004 01
062400 1818N 14604W 6967 03154 //// +076 //// 220049 050 036 002 01
062430 1817N 14603W 6973 03150 //// +077 //// 217048 050 035 002 01
062500 1815N 14601W 6970 03158 //// +078 //// 217047 049 034 002 01
062530 1814N 14600W 6971 03158 //// +081 //// 216045 046 034 001 01
062600 1813N 14559W 6962 03170 //// +076 //// 216044 045 033 002 01
062630 1812N 14558W 6963 03171 //// +063 //// 214042 043 031 003 01
062700 1811N 14556W 6964 03171 //// +076 //// 214040 041 031 002 01
062730 1809N 14555W 6950 03188 //// +085 //// 217040 041 030 001 01
062800 1808N 14554W 6968 03172 //// +091 //// 217039 040 028 001 01
$$

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016

Latest satellite images show that Lester remains a strong and well-
organized hurricane, with a solid ring of cold cloud tops
surrounding the eye. However, the eye has been shrinking, and eye
temperatures have cooled somewhat since the previous advisory,
while the outflow has diminished in the southern semicircle. These
observations indicate that Lester has weakened somewhat overnight.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW
ranged from 5.5/102 kt to 6.0/115 kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT yielded
5.3/97 kt. As Lester appears weaker since reconnaissance aircraft
last determined the intensity was near 100 kt, the current intensity
for this advisory is set to 95 kt. Another reconnaissance flight
into Lester is planned for later this morning, while the G-V will
conduct one more synoptic surveillance mission later today before
heading back to the mainland.

The initial motion vector for this advisory is 295/12 kt, and
Lester has been tracking to the right of the previous forecast track
overnight. Lester is expected to track toward the west-northwest on
the southern flank of a low-to mid-level ridge over the next couple
of days. A turn toward the northwest and north at the end of the
forecast is expected as Lester nears the southwestern and western
periphery of the ridge. On day 5, Lester will be close to a mid-
latitude trough approaching from the west. While the spread in the
guidance suite increases at that time, the earlier periods of the
forecast feature tightly clustered guidance. The updated forecast is
essentially an update of the previous, and lies very close to the
TVCN multi-model consensus. The updated forecast track has Lester
passing the latitude of the Big Island this morning, allowing the
hurricane watch to be discontinued.

The updated intensity forecast indicates that Lester has reached
peak intensity, and will steadily weaken through the forecast
period, as depicted by nearly all the intensity guidance. Initially,
some of that weakening may be due to a temporary decrease in water
temperatures, as Lester is currently tracking over the area where
Hurricane Madeline rapidly intensified earlier this week. Overall,
the weakening trend is based on persistent and gradually increasing
vertical wind shear supplied by the southerly flow aloft between an
upper-level trough near Hawaii and an upper-level anticyclone to the
east, although significantly decreasing water temperatures on day 4
and 5 will contribute as well. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the LGEM and SHIPS guidance.

A Hurricane Watch remains in place for portions of the main Hawaiian
Islands as the official forecast still brings the system close to
portions of the chain. Although forecast model guidance has been
stable for the past couple of days, and the official forecast keeps
the center of Lester northeast of the islands, a westward deviation
from the official forecast track could bring profound impacts to
Hawaii. In addition, users are also reminded that impacts from
hurricanes can occur well away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.7N 148.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 20.4N 150.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 21.4N 152.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 22.6N 155.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 23.9N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 27.0N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 31.5N 166.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 37.0N 166.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[hurricanes1234]

It is very interesting to note that Lester has maintained Category 2 intensity or higher for four full days. It unexpectedly jumped from a Category 1 to a Category 3 early Monday morning and since then has not weakened below Category 2 status, despite the fact that forecasts called for it to weaken soon after it made the unexpected jump.

[Ntxw]

I think Lester's best days are behind him now. Was such a fascinating system to track, to date he will take the top ACE storm crown in the nhem.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:15pm EDT / 9:15am HST:



URPN12 KNHC 021856
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132016
A. 02/18:19:30Z
B. 19 deg 51 min N
149 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2882 m
D. 88 kt
E. 286 deg 10 nm
F. 045 deg 87 kt
G. 296 deg 18 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 9 C / 3053 m
J. 13 C / 3054 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C32
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0413E LESTER OB 03
MAX FL WIND 87 KT 296 / 18 NM 18:14:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 140 / 7 KT
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 285 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 4:15pm EDT / 10:15am HST:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 4:25pm EDT / 10:25am HST:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 022028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132016
A. 02/20:04:50Z
B. 19 deg 57 min N
149 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2895 m
D. 83 kt
E. 064 deg 20 nm
F. 156 deg 93 kt
G. 063 deg 22 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 10 C / 3052 m
J. 14 C / 3050 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C32
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF302 0413E LESTER OB 09
MAX FL WIND 93 KT 063 / 22 NM 19:58:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 340 / 4 KT

[bob rulz]

Luckily this is looking more and more like it's going to miss Hawaii to the north. Hopefully they get nothing but some high surf and moderate rain.

Still, has there ever been a true hurricane tracking to the north of Hawaii? It's a historically rare track at best.

[hurricanes1234]

Luckily this is looking more and more like it's going to miss Hawaii to the north. Hopefully they get nothing but some high surf and moderate rain.

Still, has there ever been a true hurricane tracking to the north of Hawaii? It's a historically rare track at best.

Yes, Hurricane Julio 2014 comes to mind. Agreed it's a relatively rare track.

[WeatherGuesser]

Cone Of Uncertainty completely misses now.

Has one ever taken an unexpected left hook out that far?

Is there a historical spaghetti track map for that area like there is for the Atlantic storms?