EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#321 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:02 pm

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 PM HST FRI SEP 02 2016

Deep convection has increased around the center this afternoon,
although the eye has become cloud filled during the past couple of
hours. Southerly vertical wind shear has increased slightly to 12 to
21 kt, according to the SHIP and CIMSS, respectively, and an AMSR2
pass at 2214 UTC suggested that Lester is tilting northward with
height. Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from
SAB and CIMSS ADT to 5.5/102 kt out of HFO and JTWC. Given data from
an earlier aircraft reconnaissance mission, the initial intensity
will be held at 90 kt, which could be generous. U.S. Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft will begin conducting missions into Lester
every six hours beginning this evening.

Lester continues to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion
is set at 290/12 kt. The cyclone remains to the south of a low to
mid level ridge and is between an upper level anticyclone to the
east and an upper level trough near 160W. Lester is expected to
continue along a general west-northwestward track through Saturday
as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast later Sunday and Monday as the system increasingly feels
the effects of the upper level trough to the west. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, Lester will interact with a deep North Pacific trough,
causing a turn toward the north and an eventual extra-tropical
transition. The official track has changed little from the last
advisory. During the time when Lester will be passing near the main
Hawaiian Islands, the forecast remains near a rather tight cluster
including the GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, GFDL, and TVCN. Beyond Sunday, the
guidance spread increases, though all show a gradual northward turn.

A gradual weakening trend is expected through the next four days.
Lester's intensity remained nearly unchanged this afternoon as it
moved over slightly warmer SSTs of around 26.5C and a well defined
outflow channel remained to the north. An increase in vertical wind
shear is expected to produce gradual weakening during the next three
days, followed by little change as Lester begins an extra-tropical
transition on day four or five. The intensity forecast has been
changed little from the prior advisory and closely follows SHIPS and
LGEM, keeping Lester a hurricane as it passes near the state.

A Hurricane Watch remains in place for Oahu and Maui County, as the
official forecast still brings the system close to portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has been stable for the past
couple of days, and probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane
conditions have been dropping slowly. However, any westward
deviation from the official forecast track could bring profound
impacts to Hawaii, and users are reminded that impacts from
hurricanes can occur well away from the center.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 20.5N 151.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 21.3N 153.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 22.5N 155.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 23.8N 158.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 25.4N 160.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 28.9N 164.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 32.8N 166.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 37.0N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#322 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:20 pm

Extratropical transition in the central Pacific? That's unusual. :-O
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1667
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#323 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:01 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:
bob rulz wrote:Luckily this is looking more and more like it's going to miss Hawaii to the north. Hopefully they get nothing but some high surf and moderate rain.

Still, has there ever been a true hurricane tracking to the north of Hawaii? It's a historically rare track at best.


Yes, Hurricane Julio 2014 comes to mind. Agreed it's a relatively rare track.


Yep, that seems to be the closest recent analogue to Lester.

I looked back to 1990 and the only storm that really seems to follow a remotely similar path at hurricane intensity is Fernanda in 1994, which recurved north before actually reaching the islands (but still caused significant surf damage). I'm sure there's an easier way to find this out, but I'm too lazy to look right now haha.

In fact, tropical cyclones of any intensity very rarely pass north of the islands from the east.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#324 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:25 am

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 02 2016

The satellite presentation of Lester has degraded since the
previous advisory, with the eye no longer visible. U.S. Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was very helpful in determining the center
location of the system as it becomes increasingly tilted due
to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The hurricane hunters
found SFMR winds of 82 knots in the southwest quadrant and 79 knots
in the northwest quadrant. Due to sampling considerations, the
initial intensity will be set to 85 knots for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest at 13 knots. This
motion is expected to continue through Saturday as Lester continues
to be steered by deep layered ridging to the north of the system and
an upper level trough near 160W. Beginning Saturday night, Lester
will begin to round the southwestern periphery of the deep layered
ridge, while an upper level trough approaches Midway Atoll. As a
result, Lester should change course to a more northwesterly track
through 72 hours, then move toward the north through 120 hours in
between the deep layered ridge to the east and the upper trough to
the west. The official CPHC track is very close to the previous
advisory through 72 hours and then to the right of the previous
track through 120 hours. This adjustment to the track is a result of
a guidance shift and is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN
and GFS/ECMWF consensus (GFEX).

Lester is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple days
it begins to experience increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear
while moving over marginal 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures. The
official intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and is closely aligned with SHIPS and IVCN guidance. The forecast
calls for Lester to weaken into a Tropical Storm on Sunday, with an
extra-tropical transition expected to occur early next week.

A Hurricane Watch remains in place for Oahu and Maui County, as the
official forecast still brings the system close to portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has been stable for the past
couple of days, and probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane
conditions have been dropping slowly. If this trend continues, the
Hurricane Watch may be cancelled with the next advisory package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 21.2N 152.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 21.9N 154.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.2N 157.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 24.7N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.5N 161.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 30.2N 165.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 35.0N 165.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 39.3N 163.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#325 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:26 am

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016

Lester is becoming increasingly influenced by southwesterly
vertical wind shear as evident in satellite animations, making the
low level circulation center (LLCC) difficult to find. Thankfully,
the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft sampled the system
through much of the night, and was very helpful in finding the LLCC
of Lester. The hurricane hunters found multiple areas with SFMR
winds of 80+ knots when flying the system. Additionally, a 96 knot
flight level wind which reduces to 86 knots at the surface was
found at 03/0925Z. Therefore the initial intensity will be set at 85
knots for the 15Z advisory. This agrees well with a blend of the
Dvorak classifications from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, which ranged from
4.5/77 knots to 5.0/90 knots. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning.

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest at 14 knots. This
motion is expected to continue today as Lester continues to be
steered by a deep layered ridging to the north of the system and
an upper level trough near 160W. Lester will begin to round the
southwestern periphery of the deep layered ridge tonight, while an
upper level trough approaches Midway Atoll. As a result, Lester
should change course to a more northwesterly track through 72 hours,
then move toward the north and northeast through 120 hours in
between the deep layered ridge to the east and the upper trough
moving in from the west. The official CPHC track is very close to
the previous advisory through 72 hours, with an increase in forward
speed to more closely match the latest model guidance beyond 72
hours.

Lester is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple days
due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear as it moves over
marginal 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The official
intensity forecast is nearly a duplicate of the previous advisory,
and is closely aligned with the latest SHIPS and IVCN guidance. The
forecast calls for Lester to weaken into a tropical storm on Sunday
or Sunday night, with an extratropical transition expected early
next week as Lester becomes absorbed into a large mid-latitude
trough and moves over increasingly unfavorable SSTs.

The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for all of the Hawaiian
Islands as Lester continues to closely follow a tightly clustered
suite of model guidance, just to the north of the state. Despite
the expectation that hurricane or tropical storm conditions will
remain just north of the Islands, large and dangerous surf is
expected through the weekend. Refer to the latest coastal hazard
message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI
for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 21.8N 153.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 22.7N 155.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 24.2N 158.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 26.1N 161.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 28.2N 163.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 32.4N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 37.0N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 43.5N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#326 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:08 pm

Lester is a rather small hurricane now. Just about three to four times the size of the Big Island. :lol:

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#327 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:05 pm

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016

Lester is becoming increasingly influenced by southwesterly
vertical wind shear as evident in satellite animations, making the
low level circulation center (LLCC) difficult to find. Thankfully,
the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft sampled the system
through much of the night, and was very helpful in finding the LLCC
of Lester. The hurricane hunters found multiple areas with SFMR
winds of 80+ knots when flying the system. Additionally, a 96 knot
flight level wind which reduces to 86 knots at the surface was
found at 03/0925Z. Therefore the initial intensity will be set at 85
knots for the 15Z advisory. This agrees well with a blend of the
Dvorak classifications from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, which ranged from
4.5/77 knots to 5.0/90 knots. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning.

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest at 14 knots. This
motion is expected to continue today as Lester continues to be
steered by a deep layered ridging to the north of the system and
an upper level trough near 160W. Lester will begin to round the
southwestern periphery of the deep layered ridge tonight, while an
upper level trough approaches Midway Atoll. As a result, Lester
should change course to a more northwesterly track through 72 hours,
then move toward the north and northeast through 120 hours in
between the deep layered ridge to the east and the upper trough
moving in from the west. The official CPHC track is very close to
the previous advisory through 72 hours, with an increase in forward
speed to more closely match the latest model guidance beyond 72
hours.

Lester is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple days
due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear as it moves over
marginal 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The official
intensity forecast is nearly a duplicate of the previous advisory,
and is closely aligned with the latest SHIPS and IVCN guidance. The
forecast calls for Lester to weaken into a tropical storm on Sunday
or Sunday night, with an extratropical transition expected early
next week as Lester becomes absorbed into a large mid-latitude
trough and moves over increasingly unfavorable SSTs.

The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for all of the Hawaiian
Islands as Lester continues to closely follow a tightly clustered
suite of model guidance, just to the north of the state. Despite
the expectation that hurricane or tropical storm conditions will
remain just north of the Islands, large and dangerous surf is
expected through the weekend. Refer to the latest coastal hazard
message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI
for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 21.8N 153.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 22.7N 155.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 24.2N 158.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 26.1N 161.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 28.2N 163.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 32.4N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 37.0N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 43.5N 159.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#328 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:09 pm

Oops you posted the previous discussion. :ggreen:

Here's the latest one.

WTPA41 PHFO 032059
TCDCP1

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016

Lester continues to suffer from 15 to 20 kt of SHIPS-depicted
vertical wind shear, clearly seen in the half degree tilt with
height toward the north northeast between the 37 GHz and 85 GHz
images on the 1635 UTC SSMIS pass. There is no eye feature, but
deep convection wraps through the northwest semicircle. The LLCC was
difficult to find via enhanced infrared imagery, but was easier to
find in microwave imagery. U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
provided crucial help with LLCC location, system intensity and wind
structure. An 83 kt flight level wind maximum was found in the
northeast quadrant, reducing to 75 kt at sea level. This agrees with
the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 4.5/77 kt from JTWC.
PHFO and SAB provided intensity estimates of 4.0/65 kt, while
UW-CIMSS provided and ADT of 4.1/67 kt. We will assign Lester an
initial intensity of 75 kt based on aircraft data and the JTWC
estimate.

Initial motion is 295/15 kt as Lester moves along the southwest
flank of the subtropical ridge. An upper trough over and just west
of the main Hawaiian Islands will allow Lester to gain latitude
through the forecast period, and the forecast track around the
western edge of ridge will cause Lester to recurve back to the
northeast beyond day 3 as strong westerly steering takes hold. Track
guidance is tightly packed depicting this very scenario, which keeps
this system northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. The forecast
track closely follows the previous one as we match HWRF, GFDL and
TVCN consensus. The Ocean Prediction Center coordinated with the
days 4 and 5 positions.

Interestingly, intensity guidance is rather tightly packed,
depicting weakening through day 5. The global models weaken Lester
more slowly than SHIPS and LGEM, but the total differences between
models is quite small. The intensity forecast follows the previous
one, roughly tracing the IVCN consensus curve.

While the forecast track continues to take Lester along a course
parallel to and northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands, large and
dangerous surf is expected through the weekend across exposed shores
there. Refer to the latest coastal hazard message (CFWHFO) from the
National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 22.4N 155.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.4N 157.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.1N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.0N 162.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 29.1N 164.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 33.4N 165.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 39.1N 163.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 46.3N 155.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#329 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:03 pm

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016

Shear continues to take its toll on Lester's satellite presentation
this afternoon, with the southern portion of the LLCC briefly
becoming exposed around 0000 UTC. Deep convection persists across
the northern semicircle, with warmer convective tops noted in the -
58 to -65 degrees Celsius range. Subjective Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates range from 3.5/55 kt from SAB, to 4.0/65 kt from
PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from JTWC. U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
finished their last mission this morning, so we will assign Lester
an initial intensity of 65 kt based on an average of the Dvorak
estimates and the overall degraded satellite appearance.

Initial motion is unchanged at 295/15 kt. Track guidance remains
tightly packed, taking Lester along a recurving path generally
northwestward through day 2, followed by a turn northward on day 3,
then northeastward on days 4 and 5. The subtropical ridge north of
30N provides most of the steering needed to keep Lester moving west
northwestward, while an upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands allows this system to slip northward. This upper trough
merges with a larger longwave upper trough near the dateline by the
end of day 2, subjecting Lester to the strong southwest to northeast
steering needed for recurvature. The forecast track closely follows
the last one along the TVCN consensus path. The Ocean Prediction
Center coordinated with positions and intensities on days 4 and 5,
when Lester is expected to have completed extratropical transition.

All intensity guidance show Lester weakening through day 5 as this
system passes over cooler water and the current 15 to 20 kt of
southwesterly shear increases. Like last time, the global models,
notably GFS, keep Lester stronger at all tau than HWRF of GFDL. The
forecast calls for Lester to weaken at a steady rate between LGEM
and IVCN consensus guidance.

Large and dangerous surf is expected through tonight across exposed
shores in the main Hawaiian Islands. Refer to the latest coastal
hazard message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather Service in
Honolulu, HI for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 22.8N 156.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 23.9N 158.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 25.8N 161.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 27.8N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 164.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 34.6N 165.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 40.7N 161.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 47.8N 153.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Powell
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Hurricane

#330 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:11 pm

This may be the last of Lester's 7 or 8 consecutive days as a hurricane.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#331 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:18 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESTER ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016

...TROPICAL STORM LESTER WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 158.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#332 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:25 am

WTPA41 PHFO 041519
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
500 AM HST SUN SEP 04 2016

A pocket of deep convection with tops to near 50 thousand feet
developed during the past few hours in the northern semicircle of
Lester. However, the partially exposed low-level center of the
tropical cyclone is also evident south of these thunderstorms,
which is not a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone. Southwesterly
vertical wind shear of near 25 kt is causing Lester to continue
weakening early this morning. Last evening, a 0710 UTC ASCAT pass
over most of Lester's circulation showed a large area of winds of
45 kt or greater, with a maximum wind speed of 50 kt. The latest
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 2.5/35
kt from SAB, to 3.5/55 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The latest CIMSS ADT
estimate is 2.1/31 kt. Based on the degraded appearance of Lester
in satellite imagery and these intensity estimates, we have
initialized the intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 305/15 kt. The latest track
guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a
northwestward path through 36 hours, followed by gradual slowing
and a northward turn on day 2. Lester is then then accelerated
northeastward from days 3 to 5. Lester is currently being steered
by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N. However, a weakness
in this ridge due to an upper level trough northwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands has cause the tropical cyclone to move
northwestward. The latest forecast track closely follows the
previous one, except for slight nudging to the TVCN and GFEX
consensus guidance during the 36 to 72 hour time frame. The Ocean
Prediction Center coordinated the 4 and 5 day positions.

All intensity guidance shows slow, but steady weakening of Lester
through day 5 as this system passes over cooler water and the
current southwesterly shear increases. The global models, notably
GFS, keep Lester stronger through day 3 than HWRF or GFDL. The
latest forecast indicates slight weakening, followed by nearly
steady state through day 3, when Lester is forecast to transition
to an extra-tropical gale low over the North Pacific Ocean. Lester
will then gradually weaken on days 4 and 5. This intensity forecast
closely follows the latest SHIPS and the IVCN consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 24.4N 159.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 25.9N 160.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 28.0N 163.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.0N 164.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 32.4N 165.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 37.5N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 45.0N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 51.1N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#333 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:04 pm

WTPA41 PHFO 042053
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 04 2016

Deep convection has once again formed near the low level center
over the past several hours. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates range from 2.5/35 kt from SAB, 3.0/45 kt from
JTWC and 3.5/55 kt from PHFO. Based on the current appearance of
Lester in satellite imagery and these intensity estimates, we have
kept the intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 315/15 kt. The latest track
guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a
northwestward path through about 36 hours, followed by gradual
slowing and a northward turn on day 2. Lester is then then forecast
to accelerate to northeast on days 3 through 5. Lester is currently
being steered by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N.
However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper level trough
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands is causing Lester to move
northwestward. The latest forecast track closely follows the
previous one, and lies close to consensus and reliable model
guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center coordinated the 4 and 5 day
positions.

Strong southwesterly wind shear continues over the system with ships
guidance indicating 24 kt while UW-CIMSS estimate is 33 kt. All
intensity guidance shows very slow, but steady weakening through day
5 as Lester passes over cooler water and strong southwesterly shear
continues to impact the system. The latest intensity forecast
indicates slight weakening, followed by nearly steady state through
48 hours, when Lester is forecast to transition to an extra-tropical
gale low over the North Pacific in around 72 hours. Lester is then
forecast gradually weaken on days 4 and 5 but still remain a gale
force low. This intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS
and the IVCN consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 25.7N 160.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 27.3N 161.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 29.4N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 31.3N 165.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 33.0N 165.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 36.9N 165.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 44.4N 158.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 50.3N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#334 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:08 pm

Personally I would've gone with 55 or 60 knots. It looks a lot healthier and less sheared than this morning.

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#335 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:54 am

One possible analog for Lester's current position, and this one didn't even follow Lester's "north of Hawaii" track at all. Iniki of 1992. Luckily Lester didn't do what Iniki did to Hawaii...
Image
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#336 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:35 pm

Hard to estimate this system when....

05/1730 UTC 29.3N 164.2W EXTRATROPICAL LESTER -- Central Pacific


Hopefully we get ASCAT soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#337 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 06 2016

While Lester is over relatively cool 25C water this morning, the
system continues to exhibit tropical characteristics in an
environment characterized by light northwesterly shear. Latest
geostationary satellite images, however, show waning deep
convection, with visible imagery helping to determine that the
low-level center is partially exposed on the northwestern edge of
diminishing mid-and high-level clouds. The initial intensity for
this advisory will be maintained at 50 kt, partially based on global
model analyses that depict a strong gradient in the eastern
semicircle. Meanwhile, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
indicate a much weaker system, ranging from too weak to classify
from SAB, to 1.5/25 kt from GTW using a subtropical technique, to a
current intensity of 2.5/35 kt from PHFO.

Lester is tracking toward the north between a deep-layer ridge to
the east, and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest,
with an initial motion vector estimate of 010/10 kt. Lester is
forecast to turn toward the northeast over the next 24 hours, with
increasing forward speed until dissipation occurs by day 3. This
will occur as Lester rounds the western edge of the ridge, becomes
embedded in an increasingly strong and deep southwesterly flow ahead
of the approaching trough. The updated official track forecast
parallels the previous but moves Lester at a faster forward speed,
in line with a blend of the latest GFS, ECMWF and UKMET guidance,
and with input from the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC).

Also in collaboration with OPC, the transition to an extratropical
low is expected to take place in about 24 hours, and will likely be
complete by 36 hours. Although the wind field will be undergoing
some changes as this occurs, little change in intensity is expected.
Lester's existence as an extratropical low will be brief, as
dissipation is forecast by day 3, when Lester becomes absorbed by a
larger developing low that moves into the Gulf of Alaska. The
intensity forecast is largely being driven by global model guidance,
but is also supported by the latest SHIPS guidance.

A 1223Z JASON-2 pass detected maximum seas near 22 feet, which
matched well with Wave Watch III guidance, with this data and
OPC guidance helping to outline the area of 12 foot seas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 34.1N 166.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 35.8N 166.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 38.7N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 42.4N 161.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 48.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Tropical Storm

#338 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:50 pm

...LESTER BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 164.4W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

#339 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:54 pm

Image
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

#340 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:18 pm

Oh!

I didn't think they'd declare it post-tropical today.

Bye Lester! :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

What a persistent, long-lived storm you were. You'll go down in my history book for sure! :D
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests