ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292146
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 45 20160829
213630 3208N 07416W 8429 01621 0156 +171 +127 277013 014 011 002 00
213700 3208N 07414W 8429 01619 0153 +171 +136 271014 014 009 002 00
213730 3208N 07411W 8430 01619 0152 +174 +124 267014 014 010 001 00
213800 3208N 07409W 8430 01619 0151 +175 +127 269014 015 011 002 00
213830 3208N 07406W 8426 01622 0152 +175 +129 268015 016 008 001 00
213900 3209N 07404W 8432 01617 0152 +175 +132 262016 016 008 001 00
213930 3209N 07402W 8431 01617 0149 +180 +130 264016 017 010 002 00
214000 3209N 07359W 8428 01622 0149 +179 +131 265016 017 005 001 00
214030 3209N 07357W 8429 01619 0149 +178 +131 264015 016 009 001 00
214100 3209N 07354W 8431 01616 0148 +180 +124 263014 015 010 001 00
214130 3209N 07352W 8430 01619 0149 +180 +116 264014 014 007 001 00
214200 3209N 07350W 8430 01617 0149 +180 +112 261013 014 008 001 00
214230 3210N 07347W 8432 01616 0147 +182 +110 256013 014 006 001 00
214300 3210N 07345W 8430 01616 0148 +178 +119 259014 015 006 000 00
214330 3210N 07342W 8429 01619 0150 +175 +123 257014 015 006 000 00
214400 3210N 07340W 8430 01619 0150 +177 +120 256015 015 008 001 00
214430 3210N 07338W 8429 01620 0151 +175 +132 257015 016 010 002 00
214500 3210N 07335W 8430 01617 0150 +174 +140 253015 016 010 001 00
214530 3210N 07333W 8429 01619 0150 +174 +138 254016 016 007 000 00
214600 3210N 07330W 8429 01621 0150 +180 +127 247015 016 007 002 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292159
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 46 20160829
214630 3211N 07328W 8429 01620 0149 +179 +130 243016 016 013 002 00
214700 3211N 07326W 8429 01620 0151 +176 +133 248016 016 008 001 00
214730 3211N 07323W 8429 01621 0151 +176 +133 248015 016 008 000 00
214800 3211N 07321W 8430 01619 0148 +180 +133 248015 015 008 001 00
214830 3211N 07318W 8432 01619 0151 +176 +140 246015 015 008 001 00
214900 3211N 07316W 8430 01621 0152 +174 +142 239015 015 008 001 00
214930 3211N 07314W 8429 01621 0152 +174 +148 237015 015 009 001 00
215000 3211N 07311W 8429 01621 0149 +177 +147 238015 016 008 001 00
215030 3212N 07309W 8430 01617 0149 +178 +135 235015 015 008 001 00
215100 3212N 07306W 8429 ///// //// +176 +140 232015 015 007 003 22
215130 3212N 07304W 8429 ///// //// +175 +141 236015 015 009 002 20
215200 3212N 07302W 8431 ///// //// +175 +145 235015 015 008 000 20
215230 3212N 07259W 8429 ///// //// +177 +141 238015 015 007 001 20
215300 3212N 07257W 8434 01627 0165 +177 +141 240016 017 009 001 00
215330 3212N 07254W 8434 01628 0165 +175 +142 240017 017 006 001 00
215400 3212N 07252W 8436 01628 0166 +175 +145 240017 017 009 001 00
215430 3213N 07250W 8433 01632 0169 +171 +152 239017 017 010 002 00
215500 3213N 07247W 8434 01629 0167 +173 +151 244017 017 009 002 00
215530 3213N 07245W 8434 01629 0170 +170 +153 247017 017 008 001 00
215600 3213N 07242W 8434 01629 0170 +172 +148 251016 016 008 002 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292206
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 47 20160829
215630 3213N 07240W 8433 01633 0172 +171 +146 250015 016 008 002 00
215700 3213N 07238W 8433 01633 0169 +177 +147 240015 015 014 002 00
215730 3213N 07235W 8435 01632 0171 +175 +147 230016 016 014 001 00
215800 3214N 07233W 8433 01634 0173 +171 +144 224016 016 008 002 00
215830 3214N 07231W 8435 01632 0174 +170 +147 221015 016 010 002 00
215900 3214N 07228W 8434 01632 0174 +169 +150 222015 016 008 000 00
215930 3215N 07226W 8435 01633 0175 +169 +153 225014 016 008 000 00
220000 3215N 07224W 8433 01630 0173 +169 +152 228014 015 010 002 00
220030 3214N 07221W 8433 01633 0175 +166 +152 235015 015 009 000 00
220100 3214N 07219W 8436 01632 0175 +167 +152 229015 015 006 001 00
220130 3214N 07217W 8433 01634 0177 +165 +154 217014 015 010 002 00
220200 3214N 07215W 8434 01632 0178 +162 +156 217014 015 009 002 00
220230 3214N 07212W 8432 01635 0180 +165 +154 221014 015 012 002 00
220300 3214N 07210W 8433 01635 0180 +165 +150 217014 015 012 002 00
220330 3214N 07208W 8432 01637 0181 +165 +143 219014 015 005 002 00
220400 3215N 07206W 8440 01629 0179 +169 +120 218015 015 008 002 00
220430 3215N 07204W 8428 01638 0175 +166 +120 218014 015 008 001 00
220500 3215N 07202W 8432 01634 0176 +165 +122 219015 016 014 002 00
220530 3215N 07200W 8429 01637 0175 +165 +130 217015 015 007 001 03
220600 3216N 07158W 8428 01637 0175 +165 +133 209013 014 /// /// 03

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292216
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 48 20160829
220630 3217N 07159W 8433 01633 0177 +166 +132 210013 013 014 002 03
220700 3218N 07201W 8431 01635 0176 +168 +122 212013 013 010 001 00
220730 3220N 07202W 8433 01633 0176 +163 +148 211013 013 010 002 00
220800 3221N 07204W 8429 01635 0176 +161 +150 209012 012 006 001 00
220830 3222N 07205W 8435 01634 0179 +163 +154 204013 013 010 001 00
220900 3223N 07207W 8433 01634 0179 +165 +153 202013 013 010 002 00
220930 3225N 07208W 8434 01635 0178 +165 +152 203012 013 007 001 00
221000 3226N 07210W 8434 01634 0177 +165 +154 200011 012 009 001 00
221030 3227N 07211W 8434 01634 0177 +168 +153 202012 012 008 001 00
221100 3229N 07213W 8433 01634 0176 +168 +152 199012 013 008 002 00
221130 3230N 07214W 8434 01633 0172 +175 +147 206011 012 008 002 00
221200 3231N 07216W 8433 01635 0174 +173 +150 200011 012 008 001 00
221230 3233N 07217W 8434 01634 0174 +172 +150 193011 012 012 002 00
221300 3234N 07219W 8433 01635 0175 +170 +150 195013 013 014 002 00
221330 3236N 07220W 8434 01633 0172 +170 +148 195012 013 010 002 00
221400 3237N 07222W 8434 01632 0172 +171 +147 198011 012 009 001 00
221430 3238N 07224W 8433 01632 0172 +174 +146 195011 012 009 002 03
221500 3239N 07225W 8433 01633 0172 +171 +148 198013 013 007 001 00
221530 3241N 07227W 8432 01634 0171 +170 +152 196011 013 007 002 00
221600 3242N 07228W 8433 01632 0171 +170 +153 194012 013 009 002 03

[Extratropical94]

Going for one last SE-NW pass

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292226
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 49 20160829
221630 3244N 07230W 8434 01632 0174 +167 +157 190011 012 007 001 00
221700 3245N 07231W 8433 01633 0175 +166 +158 191011 011 008 002 00
221730 3246N 07233W 8433 01633 0175 +168 +155 195011 011 006 001 00
221800 3248N 07234W 8431 01635 0173 +173 +140 200012 012 007 001 00
221830 3249N 07236W 8433 01633 0172 +171 +152 202011 011 006 001 00
221900 3250N 07238W 8434 01629 0173 +166 +158 207011 012 007 000 00
221930 3252N 07239W 8426 01634 0169 +167 +155 207012 013 006 001 03
222000 3253N 07240W 8434 01631 0171 +170 +152 208012 013 006 001 00
222030 3254N 07242W 8434 01628 0170 +171 +150 209012 013 011 002 00
222100 3255N 07244W 8432 01631 0167 +174 +146 205012 013 010 001 00
222130 3257N 07245W 8434 01628 0170 +167 +159 203013 013 008 001 00
222200 3258N 07247W 8435 01627 0169 +170 +162 199013 013 009 001 00
222230 3259N 07248W 8433 01629 0168 +170 +160 202013 014 006 001 00
222300 3301N 07250W 8433 01631 0167 +171 +157 205012 014 006 001 00
222330 3302N 07251W 8432 01629 0165 +173 +155 204012 013 007 001 00
222400 3303N 07253W 8433 01629 0165 +174 +158 202012 013 007 001 00
222430 3305N 07255W 8443 01620 0163 +175 +160 202012 013 007 002 00
222500 3306N 07256W 8433 01617 0152 +176 +163 203012 012 008 003 00
222530 3307N 07257W 8436 01617 0153 +175 +167 195012 012 009 002 00
222600 3308N 07259W 8425 01625 0150 +175 +165 197012 013 009 001 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292236
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 50 20160829
222630 3309N 07300W 8433 01615 0151 +173 +167 193011 013 007 002 01
222700 3311N 07301W 8432 01617 0149 +175 +164 191012 013 008 001 00
222730 3312N 07303W 8432 01617 0148 +177 +158 189011 012 008 001 00
222800 3313N 07304W 8431 01617 0147 +180 +157 191012 013 009 002 00
222830 3314N 07306W 8432 01616 0145 +179 +156 192013 014 007 002 00
222900 3315N 07307W 8421 01629 0148 +178 +153 184014 015 007 001 00
222930 3317N 07309W 8436 01614 0148 +180 +150 183015 016 007 002 00
223000 3318N 07310W 8433 01618 0148 +181 +145 185014 015 006 002 00
223030 3319N 07312W 8433 01616 0148 +181 +142 190013 014 012 001 00
223100 3321N 07313W 8434 01614 0146 +183 +144 183012 013 011 001 03
223130 3322N 07315W 8431 01620 0146 +185 +143 171011 012 007 001 00
223200 3323N 07317W 8435 01615 0147 +185 +141 174011 011 008 001 00
223230 3323N 07319W 8434 01616 0145 +187 +137 173012 012 010 002 00
223300 3324N 07322W 8433 01616 0144 +188 +136 164013 013 011 001 03
223330 3324N 07324W 8430 01620 0146 +182 +150 158012 013 004 000 00
223400 3325N 07326W 8433 01616 0145 +181 +153 157012 012 010 001 03
223430 3325N 07328W 8429 01620 0146 +183 +142 154010 011 014 001 00
223500 3324N 07330W 8437 01611 0144 +188 +121 160009 010 010 001 00
223530 3324N 07332W 8453 01588 0136 +188 +147 143006 010 014 001 03
223600 3324N 07334W 8441 01599 0134 +185 +149 146003 005 014 000 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292246
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 51 20160829
223630 3323N 07336W 8433 01605 0131 +194 +103 109003 003 014 001 03
223700 3323N 07338W 8431 01610 0133 +195 +089 063002 003 /// /// 03
223730 3322N 07340W 8433 01606 0133 +190 +097 035002 003 014 001 03
223800 3322N 07342W 8426 01610 0134 +190 +095 070002 003 009 001 03
223830 3323N 07343W 8427 01611 0135 +186 +101 161003 004 014 001 03
223900 3324N 07345W 8434 01604 0135 +183 +116 159004 004 014 001 00
223930 3325N 07346W 8428 01610 0132 +188 +118 148005 006 011 001 03
224000 3327N 07347W 8432 01606 0129 +191 +115 138005 006 010 000 00
224030 3328N 07349W 8428 01609 0129 +187 +116 116003 006 012 001 03
224100 3329N 07350W 8436 01601 0126 +192 +123 088006 009 012 002 00
224130 3331N 07351W 8426 01606 0123 +189 +137 077010 013 009 003 00
224200 3332N 07352W 8428 01605 0126 +183 +151 069015 016 008 004 00
224230 3333N 07354W 8429 01601 0127 +178 +154 078015 016 011 003 00
224300 3334N 07355W 8430 01599 0123 +181 +164 058014 016 007 003 00
224330 3336N 07356W 8430 01600 0124 +179 +167 053012 013 013 003 00
224400 3337N 07357W 8433 01599 0123 +182 +174 048016 018 010 002 00
224430 3338N 07358W 8427 01605 //// +178 //// 054016 018 012 002 01
224500 3339N 07400W 8432 01603 //// +175 //// 057017 018 009 002 01
224530 3341N 07401W 8427 01605 //// +175 //// 056019 020 010 003 01
224600 3342N 07402W 8431 01604 0129 +177 +152 049020 021 008 003 00

[Extratropical94]

[Extratropical94]

No sign of TS force winds.

URNT15 KNHC 292256
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 52 20160829
224630 3343N 07404W 8433 01598 0127 +177 +146 053020 022 008 002 00
224700 3344N 07405W 8425 01608 0133 +172 +159 056021 023 009 002 00
224730 3345N 07406W 8428 01608 0134 +172 +153 057021 022 016 001 01
224800 3346N 07408W 8430 01603 0133 +170 +158 055019 021 012 003 01
224830 3347N 07409W 8432 01604 0133 +179 +112 058018 020 010 003 00
224900 3349N 07410W 8422 01614 0139 +169 +122 055016 018 009 001 00
224930 3350N 07412W 8433 01601 0138 +172 +104 054018 018 006 001 03
225000 3351N 07413W 8422 01612 0135 +174 +132 047017 018 007 002 00
225030 3352N 07415W 8431 01604 0133 +178 +140 044017 018 008 001 00
225100 3353N 07416W 8430 01609 0136 +171 +159 056022 025 011 004 01
225130 3354N 07417W 8418 01619 0141 +167 +155 057022 022 010 001 01
225200 3355N 07419W 8436 01600 0138 +172 +150 048023 025 013 000 00
225230 3357N 07420W 8432 01606 0138 +174 +144 048023 027 013 001 00
225300 3358N 07421W 8428 01610 0141 +173 +129 052023 023 010 001 00
225330 3359N 07423W 8429 01610 0140 +172 +152 049023 024 013 000 00
225400 3359N 07423W 8429 01610 0140 +173 +153 049022 023 015 000 00
225430 3401N 07425W 8432 01609 0140 +177 +143 053022 022 014 000 00
225500 3402N 07427W 8431 01609 0140 +178 +146 055022 022 015 001 00
225530 3403N 07428W 8428 01615 0141 +176 +152 048022 023 014 002 00
225600 3405N 07430W 8432 01610 0139 +179 +130 042019 020 014 002 00

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 292306
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 53 20160829
225630 3406N 07431W 8428 01614 0138 +180 +135 038020 021 016 002 00
225700 3407N 07432W 8427 01615 0138 +183 +131 039021 021 013 002 00
225730 3408N 07433W 8431 01609 0137 +184 +138 044021 022 015 001 00
225800 3409N 07435W 8432 01610 0137 +185 +130 049020 022 018 000 00
225830 3410N 07436W 8430 01615 0139 +187 +113 051018 019 018 002 00
225900 3411N 07438W 8436 01605 0137 +186 +122 047017 018 023 000 00
225930 3412N 07439W 8424 01620 0140 +185 +112 051016 017 022 001 00
230000 3414N 07440W 8432 01611 0139 +186 +119 051017 017 020 002 00
230030 3415N 07442W 8429 01615 0140 +184 +130 054017 018 020 001 00
230100 3416N 07443W 8428 01617 0142 +184 +130 062019 019 017 001 00
230130 3417N 07445W 8429 01616 0140 +184 +147 063019 019 016 001 00
230200 3418N 07446W 8433 01612 0141 +185 +147 064019 020 017 001 00
230230 3419N 07447W 8431 01616 0139 +190 +141 068017 019 015 001 00
230300 3420N 07449W 8432 01615 0141 +188 +130 068017 018 014 001 00
230330 3422N 07450W 8427 01620 0143 +185 +121 069018 019 014 000 00
230400 3423N 07452W 8433 01615 0143 +185 +125 072019 019 013 001 03
230430 3424N 07453W 8429 01619 0144 +186 +137 065019 021 015 001 00
230500 3425N 07454W 8430 01617 0144 +183 +141 061019 019 014 001 03
230530 3426N 07456W 8428 01621 0149 +178 +145 059019 019 017 000 00
230600 3427N 07457W 8431 01617 0149 +177 +141 064020 020 015 001 03

[Extratropical94]

Mission over.

URNT15 KNHC 292316
AF304 0308A CYCLONE HDOB 54 20160829
230630 3429N 07459W 8431 01620 0152 +175 +135 072020 021 015 000 00
230700 3430N 07500W 8429 01621 0150 +179 +139 069021 021 014 001 03
230730 3431N 07501W 8433 01619 0151 +180 +135 063020 020 014 000 03
230800 3432N 07503W 8430 01621 0149 +183 +125 066019 020 013 001 00
230830 3433N 07504W 8432 01620 0150 +184 +121 057018 018 015 001 00
230900 3434N 07506W 8430 01621 0150 +183 +122 055017 018 015 001 00
230930 3435N 07507W 8429 01623 0152 +177 +135 051017 017 013 001 00
231000 3437N 07508W 8426 01627 0154 +178 +131 050016 016 015 001 00
231030 3438N 07510W 8428 01623 0151 +182 +123 056015 017 014 002 00
231100 3439N 07511W 8433 01620 0151 +185 +122 061014 015 018 000 00
231130 3439N 07511W 8433 01620 0154 +180 +129 060015 016 016 001 00
231200 3441N 07514W 8344 01697 0138 +177 +111 053015 016 016 001 03
231230 3441N 07516W 8018 02030 0128 +160 +074 055013 016 /// /// 03
231300 3441N 07518W 7615 02474 0135 +138 -005 066012 013 /// /// 03
231330 3440N 07521W 7233 02909 0129 +120 -051 090010 011 /// /// 03
231400 3440N 07523W 6957 03234 0132 +100 -123 106013 014 /// /// 03
231430 3440N 07525W 6683 03565 0133 +080 -196 097013 014 /// /// 03
231500 3440N 07527W 6422 03897 0140 +057 -196 086013 014 014 001 00
231530 3439N 07529W 6296 04059 0138 +047 -171 079012 013 013 001 00
231600 3439N 07532W 6032 04407 0140 +021 -095 076013 014 014 000 00

[Extratropical94]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The increase in convective organization that occurred earlier today
has not persisted, and the convection associated with Tropical
Depression Eight is currently minimal and disorganized. The
initial intensity will remain 30 kt, pending the arrival of the next
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0900 UTC.

The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest
strengthening is possible if convection can persist near the
center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to
baroclinic influences as the cyclone begin to interact with a
frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the
previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the
LGEM model. It should be noted that the system could dissipate
before 72 hours as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/4. The depression
should continue a slow northwestward to northward motion toward a
break in the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so. After
that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in
advance of an approaching baroclinic trough. The new forecast
track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center
of the track guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 33.8N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 34.2N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 34.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[arlwx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...CENTER OF THE POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION JOGS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 74.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should
monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight or Tuesday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. The
center of the depression has jogged a little to the west during the
past few hours. Overall, the depression is moving toward the
northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion with a slower
forward speed is expected tonight, with a gradual turn toward the
north forecast later today. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this
afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, beginning by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.

[Hammy]

Circulation seems to be dissolving, no chance this makes it to TS intensity now. It'll probably dissipate tomorrow as it's over the Gulf Stream and still can't seem to maintain convection.

[txwatcher91]

Circulation seems to be dissolving, no chance this makes it to TS intensity now. It'll probably dissipate tomorrow as it's over the Gulf Stream and still can't seem to maintain convection.

What a difference 3 hours makes lol. Convection exploding and it looks like center might be reforming near the coast. On radar I'm seeing some 25-30kt winds in some of those bands of storms.

[xironman]

Recon's winds still unimpressive. Seems like it is constantly reforming rather than organizing. Clearly taking shape about 30 miles NW of the old center, with banding starting to show on radar. This may have a surprise ramp up, it is sitting on the core of the warmest water on the coast https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_dat ... 57.n18.jpg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Convection has again increased in association with Tropical
Depression Eight, with the data from the Morehead City, North
Carolina, WSR-88D radar showing weak convective banding in the
northern semicircle. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft up to this writing show flight-level winds
of less than 30 kt and a central pressure near 1010 mb. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt, and this might be generous.

The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest
strengthening is possible if the current convection can persist near
the center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due
to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begins to interact with a
frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the
previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the
LGEM model. One change to the intensity forecast is to indicate
that the system will become an extratropical low at about 72 hours
before the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/5. The depression
should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the
subtropical ridge later today. After that, it should recurve
northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front.
The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the
previous track during the first 24 hours based on the initial
position. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and
lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 33.9N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 35.3N 74.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 36.5N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 38.4N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 43.0N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tolakram]

live IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow