ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281847
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20160828
183730 3046N 07108W 8429 01604 0123 +192 +135 258009 009 026 000 00
183800 3047N 07105W 8429 01601 0123 +190 +135 253009 009 025 000 00
183830 3047N 07103W 8431 01600 0122 +189 +137 245010 011 026 001 00
183900 3048N 07100W 8429 01600 0121 +189 +138 241011 011 027 001 00
183930 3049N 07057W 8432 01599 0122 +188 +139 234012 013 026 000 00
184000 3049N 07054W 8429 01601 0123 +184 +140 232013 014 026 000 00
184030 3050N 07051W 8429 01605 0122 +189 +141 230014 015 025 000 00
184100 3050N 07049W 8429 01602 0122 +188 +141 229015 015 024 000 00
184130 3051N 07046W 8426 01604 0120 +189 +141 229016 016 024 001 00
184200 3051N 07043W 8429 01601 0123 +187 +141 229016 017 025 000 00
184230 3052N 07040W 8428 01604 0126 +184 +142 224018 018 024 000 00
184300 3053N 07037W 8430 01601 0123 +187 +142 219019 019 024 001 00
184330 3053N 07035W 8429 01601 0124 +185 +141 219019 020 024 001 00
184400 3054N 07032W 8430 01602 0125 +185 +140 220020 020 025 000 00
184430 3054N 07029W 8431 01600 0125 +187 +141 219018 020 024 001 00
184500 3055N 07026W 8433 01600 0126 +187 +141 209018 020 025 000 00
184530 3055N 07023W 8430 01602 0123 +189 +140 207018 018 026 000 00
184600 3056N 07020W 8429 01605 0128 +184 +140 205020 021 026 000 00
184630 3057N 07017W 8430 01602 0126 +188 +140 206021 022 024 001 00
184700 3057N 07015W 8428 01606 0131 +180 +140 207023 023 025 000 00
$$
;

[txwatcher91]

TD#8's center just get exposed? Looks like shear just whacked all the convection to the Northwest.

Yep hit a band of high mid-level shear. I expect TD 8 to refire convection overnight and then slowly organize as it exits the band of mid-level shear. If it survives.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281857
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20160828
184730 3058N 07012W 8428 01607 0132 +178 +140 207023 023 025 000 00
184800 3059N 07009W 8426 01605 0128 +178 +140 206020 021 022 001 03
184830 3101N 07008W 8435 01596 0129 +178 +139 194018 020 /// /// 03
184900 3103N 07010W 8435 01599 0133 +174 +137 196015 016 023 001 00
184930 3104N 07012W 8428 01604 0130 +178 +135 190015 016 024 000 00
185000 3106N 07014W 8430 01599 0129 +175 +135 192016 017 024 000 00
185030 3108N 07016W 8437 01590 0125 +179 +135 190017 018 022 001 00
185100 3110N 07018W 8414 01615 0122 +181 +134 195018 018 021 000 00
185130 3111N 07020W 8429 01598 0121 +183 +133 205020 020 022 000 00
185200 3113N 07022W 8430 01594 0118 +184 +132 203020 020 021 000 00
185230 3115N 07024W 8429 01595 0117 +184 +132 201019 020 023 000 00
185300 3117N 07026W 8432 01590 0121 +176 +133 198018 019 023 000 00
185330 3118N 07028W 8426 01595 0123 +170 +134 203018 019 022 000 00
185400 3120N 07030W 8429 01591 0114 +184 +133 205016 018 023 000 00
185430 3122N 07032W 8429 01590 0112 +184 +133 203015 016 024 000 00
185500 3123N 07034W 8436 01587 0114 +181 +135 205014 015 023 000 00
185530 3125N 07036W 8431 01587 0111 +179 +136 201014 017 022 001 00
185600 3127N 07038W 8426 01589 0110 +180 +135 206010 012 018 000 00
185630 3128N 07040W 8430 01584 0105 +185 +131 193008 009 020 000 00
185700 3130N 07042W 8432 01583 0104 +189 +129 202006 006 018 001 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281907
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20160828
185730 3131N 07043W 8439 01576 0104 +191 +128 193007 008 015 001 00
185800 3132N 07045W 8429 01579 0101 +188 +127 214005 007 017 001 00
185830 3133N 07047W 8429 01582 0101 +187 +126 257005 007 016 001 00
185900 3133N 07048W 8427 01581 0101 +188 +125 269003 004 012 001 00
185930 3135N 07049W 8436 01574 0103 +184 +124 230002 003 014 000 00
190000 3136N 07051W 8428 01581 0101 +185 +123 128002 003 013 002 03
190030 3137N 07049W 8431 01576 0099 +185 +123 156004 005 /// /// 03
190100 3137N 07048W 8427 01579 0099 +184 +124 141005 006 013 001 00
190130 3137N 07046W 8414 01595 0102 +180 +124 143007 008 014 000 00
190200 3137N 07043W 8421 01590 0104 +180 +127 170011 014 018 001 00
190230 3136N 07041W 8430 01581 0104 +182 +130 178015 017 018 001 00
190300 3136N 07038W 8422 01590 0107 +177 +131 179018 019 019 000 00
190330 3136N 07036W 8428 01585 0108 +178 +133 180022 023 018 000 00
190400 3136N 07033W 8428 01587 0106 +185 +135 175023 023 018 000 00
190430 3136N 07030W 8437 01579 0104 +189 +137 177023 023 020 001 00
190500 3136N 07027W 8429 01587 0103 +193 +139 185022 022 022 000 00
190530 3136N 07024W 8426 01593 0113 +178 +141 175026 029 023 000 00
190600 3136N 07022W 8430 01592 0120 +170 +144 181030 031 023 000 00
190630 3136N 07019W 8429 01593 0121 +173 +145 187031 031 023 000 00
190700 3136N 07016W 8427 01595 0120 +177 +144 183030 032 022 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281917
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20160828
190730 3135N 07014W 8426 01600 0122 +180 +142 186029 030 022 000 00
190800 3135N 07011W 8429 01599 0122 +183 +140 191030 030 022 000 00
190830 3135N 07008W 8429 01601 0123 +185 +139 189030 030 023 000 00
190900 3135N 07005W 8428 01602 0125 +181 +140 188029 031 022 000 00
190930 3135N 07002W 8429 01604 0129 +178 +141 184028 029 022 000 00
191000 3135N 07000W 8431 01602 0130 +178 +142 182027 028 022 000 00
191030 3135N 06957W 8429 01605 0129 +181 +142 180025 026 022 000 00
191100 3135N 06954W 8429 01606 0133 +177 +141 178026 028 022 000 00
191130 3134N 06951W 8432 01606 0136 +175 +142 178027 028 021 001 00
191200 3134N 06948W 8422 01613 0138 +171 +143 179027 028 022 000 00
191230 3134N 06946W 8432 01606 0140 +173 +142 174025 028 021 000 00
191300 3134N 06943W 8430 01605 0136 +175 +140 167022 025 019 001 03
191330 3136N 06941W 8429 01606 0135 +177 +138 155020 020 /// /// 03
191400 3138N 06942W 8422 01617 0139 +176 +137 150019 020 019 001 03
191430 3140N 06944W 8426 01610 0136 +176 +135 157022 023 023 000 00
191500 3142N 06946W 8437 01601 0138 +175 +134 153023 024 023 000 00
191530 3144N 06948W 8424 01615 0140 +172 +133 157022 023 025 000 00
191600 3146N 06950W 8429 01606 0137 +173 +133 155024 025 024 000 00
191630 3148N 06952W 8430 01606 0138 +173 +131 155025 026 022 001 00
191700 3150N 06954W 8429 01607 0135 +179 +130 152025 026 023 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281927
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20160828
191730 3152N 06955W 8429 01606 0133 +180 +128 154026 026 024 000 00
191800 3155N 06957W 8430 01606 0135 +180 +128 153026 026 023 000 00
191830 3157N 06959W 8429 01606 0135 +176 +128 152026 027 024 000 00
191900 3159N 07001W 8429 01606 0136 +176 +127 151027 027 024 000 00
191930 3201N 07003W 8430 01605 0138 +174 +127 138027 029 024 000 00
192000 3203N 07005W 8424 01610 0139 +169 +128 136029 029 023 001 00
192030 3205N 07006W 8435 01600 0137 +173 +128 136027 028 023 001 00
192100 3207N 07009W 8423 01603 0128 +174 +128 136027 027 022 001 03
192130 3207N 07011W 8434 01590 0128 +170 +129 143025 027 /// /// 03
192200 3205N 07013W 8439 01581 0119 +177 +128 140024 025 021 000 00
192230 3204N 07015W 8430 01590 0112 +187 +128 143025 026 023 000 00
192300 3202N 07017W 8429 01588 0105 +192 +128 141025 026 022 000 00
192330 3200N 07019W 8430 01584 0101 +195 +131 140027 027 023 000 00
192400 3159N 07021W 8426 01587 0098 +195 +134 142025 026 024 000 00
192430 3157N 07023W 8430 01579 0096 +194 +137 146026 026 027 000 00
192500 3155N 07025W 8428 01581 0092 +196 +140 144024 026 024 000 00
192530 3154N 07027W 8429 01582 0093 +199 +143 137021 023 023 001 00
192600 3152N 07029W 8430 01588 0101 +197 +144 138022 024 023 000 00
192630 3150N 07031W 8429 01590 0100 +201 +145 144021 021 024 001 00
192700 3149N 07033W 8429 01589 0104 +193 +147 143020 022 023 001 00
$$
;

[johngaltfla]

Yup, just saw the latest loop and that sucker is exposed. I'll be curious to see if it reorganizes overnight or goes poof.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281937
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20160828
192730 3147N 07035W 8428 01592 0110 +185 +151 147019 020 022 001 00
192800 3145N 07037W 8427 01590 0110 +183 +151 149020 021 021 001 00
192830 3144N 07039W 8435 01582 0112 +179 +151 157019 020 019 001 00
192900 3142N 07041W 8429 01590 0110 +184 +150 165016 019 017 001 00
192930 3141N 07042W 8426 01589 0110 +178 +150 164011 014 020 001 03
193000 3140N 07045W 8441 01579 0115 +180 +147 157010 011 016 001 00
193030 3139N 07047W 8439 01582 0112 +183 +138 181010 012 019 001 00
193100 3139N 07048W 8423 01595 0111 +184 +128 172011 011 019 000 00
193130 3138N 07050W 8432 01587 0112 +185 +122 179006 010 019 000 00
193200 3138N 07052W 8429 01592 0112 +186 +119 201005 006 018 001 00
193230 3137N 07054W 8433 01585 0111 +187 +118 234007 008 020 001 00
193300 3138N 07056W 8434 01585 0111 +186 +117 286006 008 020 001 03
193330 3140N 07056W 8425 01592 0104 +195 +117 038005 006 019 000 00
193400 3141N 07056W 8430 01588 0101 +199 +117 091009 011 012 002 03
193430 3141N 07055W 8424 01593 0099 +200 +118 111007 012 /// /// 03
193500 3140N 07056W 8428 01588 0102 +197 +121 045004 006 017 000 00
193530 3140N 07056W 8428 01588 0103 +200 +124 037008 008 020 000 00
193600 3140N 07100W 8432 01587 0107 +194 +126 023008 009 019 001 00
193630 3140N 07102W 8429 01589 0107 +193 +126 022010 011 020 000 00
193700 3140N 07104W 8430 01590 0109 +192 +125 031010 011 019 001 00
$$
;

[Hammy]

All the sudden TD 8 looks like crap, recon barely finds a TD and circulation is elongated.

This was probably stronger last night, and honestly this should've been upgraded two days ago. It's likely about 12-24 hours or so away from dissipating at this point.

[NDG]

All the sudden TD 8 looks like crap, recon barely finds a TD and circulation is elongated.

This was probably stronger last night, and honestly this should've been upgraded two days ago. It's likely about 12-24 hours or so away from dissipating at this point.

This is maybe why they took so long to upgrade, they knew decapitation was coming sooner than later.

[northjaxpro]

The ULL east off the SE ATL coastline really bought in that southeast shear over TD8 very rapidly which I posted earlier. It is possible this was a trotical storm up until last night before that shear stipped this system naked!

[txwatcher91]

If you watch the latest HWRF run it keeps TD 8 nearly devoid of convection until Monday night and Tuesday morning when it explodes and intensifies quickly to a 997mb TS off the NC coast. Assuming that's correct I would expect the circulation to remain weak today, possibly refiring more convection tonight with better organization Tuesday morning. With it being near or over the Gulf Stream it could ramp up quickly if it finds a patch of low shear.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281947
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20160828
193730 3140N 07106W 8430 01590 0114 +186 +125 009008 010 020 000 00
193800 3140N 07108W 8426 01593 0112 +184 +123 001009 009 020 001 00
193830 3140N 07110W 8408 01616 0120 +179 +124 004013 014 020 001 00
193900 3140N 07112W 8428 01596 0118 +181 +125 003015 015 020 001 00
193930 3140N 07115W 8432 01594 0115 +192 +127 004017 017 018 001 00
194000 3140N 07118W 8429 01598 0112 +200 +129 006018 019 019 000 00
194030 3140N 07121W 8434 01596 0116 +199 +133 008017 019 017 000 00
194100 3140N 07124W 8425 01606 0121 +191 +137 012017 018 016 000 00
194130 3140N 07126W 8429 01602 0122 +190 +140 012016 017 015 000 00
194200 3140N 07129W 8431 01602 0124 +189 +141 006015 015 016 000 00
194230 3140N 07132W 8430 01604 0128 +186 +143 000013 013 016 000 00
194300 3140N 07135W 8423 01611 0134 +178 +144 006014 015 015 001 00
194330 3140N 07138W 8432 01607 0134 +183 +144 009015 015 012 001 00
194400 3140N 07141W 8434 01605 0137 +179 +145 014014 015 015 000 00
194430 3140N 07143W 8428 01610 0134 +180 +144 022015 015 014 000 00
194500 3140N 07146W 8410 01627 0133 +180 +141 023016 017 014 001 00
194530 3140N 07149W 8432 01604 0131 +182 +138 020017 018 016 000 00
194600 3140N 07151W 8430 01607 0132 +184 +136 023013 015 018 001 00
194630 3140N 07154W 8442 01595 0135 +180 +137 027011 012 016 000 00
194700 3140N 07157W 8428 01611 0138 +177 +136 037009 010 016 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281957
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20160828
194730 3140N 07159W 8433 01605 0141 +172 +134 010010 013 018 004 00
194800 3140N 07201W 8432 01605 0137 +179 +131 019010 012 017 004 00
194830 3140N 07204W 8424 01617 0136 +183 +124 024012 013 016 001 00
194900 3140N 07206W 8434 01605 0138 +180 +120 013014 015 018 000 00
194930 3139N 07209W 8425 01615 0141 +178 +118 013013 014 018 001 00
195000 3139N 07211W 8432 01609 0142 +177 +116 007014 017 023 006 00
195030 3139N 07213W 8425 01613 0140 +179 +117 011016 018 028 006 00
195100 3139N 07216W 8430 01611 0143 +177 +113 025012 015 024 001 00
195130 3139N 07218W 8429 01613 0143 +179 +111 037014 016 025 000 00
195200 3139N 07221W 8427 01615 0144 +178 +111 034012 015 022 000 00
195230 3139N 07223W 8428 01613 0146 +174 +113 031013 014 024 000 00
195300 3139N 07225W 8425 01615 0144 +174 +114 019014 015 023 000 00
195330 3139N 07228W 8422 01620 0143 +177 +116 035013 014 023 000 00
195400 3139N 07231W 8428 01615 0146 +175 +118 027013 014 023 001 03
195430 3139N 07234W 8431 01611 0145 +172 +121 027013 013 024 000 00
195500 3139N 07236W 8441 01601 0145 +172 +125 034014 015 024 000 00
195530 3139N 07239W 8422 01621 0146 +172 +127 021013 014 022 001 00
195600 3139N 07239W 8422 01621 0145 +170 +129 024014 014 021 000 00
195630 3139N 07245W 8427 01617 0150 +165 +131 024016 017 021 000 00
195700 3139N 07248W 8430 01613 0151 +165 +131 037017 018 020 000 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282007
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20160828
195730 3140N 07250W 8381 01656 0143 +162 +131 045015 017 /// /// 03
195800 3142N 07251W 8092 01948 0131 +151 +130 053012 013 015 002 03
195830 3144N 07250W 7765 02300 0128 +133 +126 060009 011 020 000 03
195900 3146N 07249W 7496 02600 0123 +122 +121 067008 009 020 000 03
195930 3146N 07246W 7254 02872 0125 +107 +107 052007 008 /// /// 05
200000 3145N 07245W 7021 03147 //// +089 //// 044012 013 025 002 01
200030 3143N 07243W 6969 03222 0127 +092 +087 052013 014 024 002 01
200100 3142N 07241W 6970 03220 0127 +096 +078 055013 014 022 000 00
200130 3140N 07240W 6967 03223 0130 +095 +071 054011 014 022 001 00
200200 3138N 07239W 6971 03220 0130 +095 +067 062010 012 022 001 00
200230 3136N 07238W 6966 03228 0128 +096 +064 062014 016 021 000 00
200300 3134N 07237W 6967 03225 0127 +100 +062 059017 018 022 000 00
200330 3132N 07237W 6967 03225 0130 +098 +062 062015 017 021 000 00
200400 3130N 07236W 6967 03226 0131 +097 +061 058014 015 020 001 00
200430 3128N 07235W 6966 03230 0133 +095 +060 055011 013 022 000 00
200500 3126N 07234W 6969 03225 0130 +099 +059 062011 012 020 001 03
200530 3124N 07235W 6967 03228 0131 +096 +058 060011 012 /// /// 03
200600 3124N 07237W 6921 03278 0122 +092 +056 072013 015 /// /// 03
200630 3125N 07239W 6790 03427 0114 +082 +053 080013 015 016 001 00
200700 3125N 07242W 6591 03667 0113 +065 +050 069012 013 017 000 00
$$
;

Mission over.

[Hammy]

All the sudden TD 8 looks like crap, recon barely finds a TD and circulation is elongated.

This was probably stronger last night, and honestly this should've been upgraded two days ago. It's likely about 12-24 hours or so away from dissipating at this point.

This is maybe why they took so long to upgrade, they knew decapitation was coming sooner than later.

If that's the case it's bad policy, as it means not upgrading a system that is clearly a depression/storm on the basis that it eventually won't be one.

[cycloneye]

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 70.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES




TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The low-level center of the depression is now exposed, with the deep
convection diminishing and displaced to the northwest of the center
due to about 15 to 20 kt of southeasterly shear. Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the intensity
remains 30 kt based on the highest believable SFMR winds and peak
flight-level winds of 32 kt.

Given the current satellite presentation and an environment that is
only expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, only
modest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the
depression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or
two. After that time the shear should increase as the system
accelerates northeastward, and the global models show the cyclone
being absorbed by a front in about 4 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus through 48 hours and a
little below it at 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08. While the synoptic reasoning
has not changed, the sheared state of the cyclone could lead to some
erratic motion if it remains a shallow system. Assuming deep
convection returns, the cyclone is expected to gradually recurve
during the next 48 to 72 hours, with a slow northwestward motion
expected in 24 to 48 hours, bringing the center just offshore of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina. Given the uncertainty in the
intensity forecast and the timing of the approach to the coast, a
tropical storm watch is not being issued at this time, but one may
be required later tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 31.8N 70.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 32.2N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 33.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 34.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 36.8N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[AJC3]

This was probably stronger last night, and honestly this should've been upgraded two days ago. It's likely about 12-24 hours or so away from dissipating at this point.

This is maybe why they took so long to upgrade, they knew decapitation was coming sooner than later.

If that's the case it's bad policy, as it means not upgrading a system that is clearly a depression/storm on the basis that it eventually won't be one.

I strongly suspect that, when all is said and done after this season's end, the best track for this system will show it as having formed 24-36 hours earlier than advisories were written on it.

[HurricaneBelle]

Any possibility of fixing the map? It's been showing both TD8 and Invest 91L superimposed on top of each other.