ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Agua]

I was waiting for 93L to go kaput before declaring to the Wife that we're probably in the clear for the year. FARK!!

[johngaltfla]

I just got the oak tree off my house from Hermine. Not this again!

[mcheer23]

I just got the oak tree off my house from Hermine. Not this again!

Steering currents are way different this time. MX/TX threat if it develops

[Nimbus]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/774318779723554816

August 29th is a bad date remember the Memphis or was that the Tennessee?

[Nederlander]

I just got the oak tree off my house from Hermine. Not this again!

Looks like more of a western pusher.. I don't think FL will be under the gun on this one..

[Portastorm]

It's got my attention... the shear forecasts don't appear overwhelming, a developing anticyclone will be over the system by this weekend, an obvious stout low level circulation, and climatology all tells me this one is worth watching if you're along the central or western GOM.

[Alyono]

likely going to Mexico or south Texas

And pay no attention to TWC. They are saying no closed low based upon model analyses. They not even bothering to look at satellite

[Kazmit]

I'd say it's a potential threat to south Texas. I wonder how much it'll be able to strengthen before landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

shear dropping pretty quickly. another 8 to 12 hours and it will be moving into a better environment.

6 hours ago...



now

[Stormcenter]

Not sold on the south Texas or Mexico threat if this does develop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Edited because my original post did not account for shear.

looks like it's headed for the western gulf. Shear should inhibit it for the next day or so, after that it may have a window to develop.

[Alyono]

Not sold on the south Texas or Mexico threat if this does develop.

big ridge is building

Also, as a general comment, look for this to get blasted by northerly shear during the next several hours

[JaxGator]

Just goes to show you how fast things can change in the tropics. One moment it may look dead but bam! It throws a curveball. Not of all Atlantic looks favorable now, but you see how fast shear lessened around and over 92 and 93L.

[AJC3]

shear dropping pretty quickly. another 8 to 12 hours and it will be moving into a better environment.

This improvement is likely to be a little slower to occur that that, since the strong upper trough NE of Florida still has a little more retrograding to do before it stalls out. All the global model guidance brings its axis from its current position near 75-76W to about 78W from 36-48 hours. This will bring the strong northerly winds on its backside a bit farther west across FL and into the Straits in tandem with the low for about another day and a half. But give it another day or two, so it can get out from underneath the 40-50kt of N-NW shear that it's currently getting blasted with, into the SE GOMEX (west of about 85W) in a few days where it's closer to being underneath that upper ridge and then we may be looking at a TC with better potential to intensify.

[Aric Dunn]

shear dropping pretty quickly. another 8 to 12 hours and it will be moving into a better environment.

This improvement is likely to be a little slower to occur that that, since the strong upper trough NE of Florida still has a little more retrograding to do before it stalls out. All the global model guidance brings its axis from its current position near 75-76W to about 78W from 36-48 hours. This will bring the strong northerly winds on its backside a bit farther west across FL and into the Straits in tandem with the low for about another day and a half. But give it another day or two, so it can get out from underneath the 40-50kt of N-NW shear that it's currently getting blasted with, into the SE GOMEX (west of about 85W) in a few days where it's closer to being underneath that upper ridge and then we may be looking at a TC with better potential to intensify.

fair enough. though the circ appears to be moving a little faster than the shear axis is whis is what I was noting just didn't elaborate. shear should slowly lesson as the naked circ moves west. agree though it wont be for another 36 hours or so till the winds drop off enough but at least in the next 12 hours it should move out of the 40kts its under now to around 20kts for the next day or two.
but we shall see.

[JtSmarts]

Maybe looking at an Erica 2003 redux?

[gatorcane]

Shear looks quite strong at the moment - look how it just pushed the convection even further away from the naked swirl:

[Hammy]

This probably should've been upgraded earlier, but given that it just spit out the LLC (which is increasingly cloudless even at the lower level) it's looking unlikely. Still a bit of a surprise to see after a few days off from the active boards as there hasn't been much happening.

[AJC3]

Shear looks quite strong at the moment - look how it just pushed the convection even further away from the naked swirl:

If you look carefully at the top center of the last few images of that time lapse, what you can also see there is some transversely banded cirrus offshore the Florida east coast moving southward toward the LLC of 93L. This is associated with a belt of strong northerly winds on the backside of the upper trough that we've been talking about. The consensus of global model guidance brings northerly upper winds of about 25-30KT to the lower keys/straits tomorrow, before 93L moves into an area of more backed (W-NW) and weaker (~10KT) upper level winds on Sunday, This would still result in about 20KT of UL shear by then, given the westward motion of the Invest.

[AJC3]

This probably should've been upgraded earlier, but given that it just spit out the LLC (which is increasingly cloudless even at the lower level) it's looking unlikely. Still a bit of a surprise to see after a few days off from the active boards as there hasn't been much happening.

On the contrary, given what's taken place over the last 18 hours, this is precisely why you don't want to upgrade a system prematurely.