ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[wxman57]

The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.

[Tireman4]

The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.

Ok, Mister "One with the Disturbances" ( lol), where do you see this one going?

[StormHunter72]

Poof

[Stormcenter]

Why is the NHC giving it a rather healthy 40% chance of development?

The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.

[hriverajr]

The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.

It does not look too good.. but I don't see it racing off to the nw, or is it really totally dissipating, too early to call that (it might). There does appear to be some strong upper winds (250 mb) heading down the east coast of Florida. I just think someone does not want to be working a system this weekend into next week

[TheStormExpert]

Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.

Is it too soon to say next season yet?

[Steve]

Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.

Is it too soon to say next season yet?

Come on man

[centuryv58]

Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.

Is it too soon to say next season yet?

Yes, it is.

[Hammy]

Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.

Is it too soon to say next season yet?

People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.

[Aric Dunn]

Another burst of convection should start soon.

[GCANE]

Latest COD analysis has a relatively well defined vort of 3.



Vort will stay vertically compressed as it travels thru the mid-level dry slot coming down from the Glades and anchoring thru the Keys.



However, if this survives past the dry slot and gets past about 84W, the vort could quickly expand vertically and spin up.

CAPE in this area is currently running 3000 to 3500. This typically is enough to fire off deep convection.

[Alyono]

that band of shear is now whacking this. Any convection will be immediately stripped away from the center

[GCANE]

About 3 hrs ago there was enough convergence for a high rain-rate hot tower to fire off.
If this makes it past 84W, IMHO it is likely convection could refire.
A couple good hot towers then could change the upper levels enough to support further development.
IMHO, its all about what happens as it tracks thru that mid-level dry slot.

[JaxGator]

Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.

Is it too soon to say next season yet?

People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.

Indeed. Until it fades, the Gulf Coast should still watch it closely. Hermine was declared dead and it ended up badly affecting a lot of people. Anyway, this bears watching. Along with the other invests as we are in the peak of the season. A lot of factors in play.

[Hammy]

Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.

Is it too soon to say next season yet?

People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.

Indeed. Until it fades, the Gulf Coast should still watch it closely. Hermine was declared dead and it ended up badly affecting a lot of people. Anyway, this bears watching. Along with the other invests as we are in the peak of the season. A lot of factors in play.

Not that my Hermine forecast gives this much credibility, but I think this particular system is toast--there is basically no model support whatsoever for more than a weak low in a day that quickly dissipates. But the season itself is far from over, and while the statistical peak may be quiet, on the average about half of the activity occurs after that point (and let's not forget the secondary peak in October...)

[GCANE]

CIRA showing high Total Preciptiable Water thru all levels in the SE GOM

[ConvergenceZone]

The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.

Says the man who desperately wants the weekend off. Hehe

[Aric Dunn]

now that the convection over cuba has collapsed the inflow should become a little more established on the south side. convection should refire over the next hour or two.

[JaxGator]

People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.

Indeed. Until it fades, the Gulf Coast should still watch it closely. Hermine was declared dead and it ended up badly affecting a lot of people. Anyway, this bears watching. Along with the other invests as we are in the peak of the season. A lot of factors in play.

Not that my Hermine forecast gives this much credibility, but I think this particular system is toast--there is basically no model support whatsoever for more than a weak low in a day that quickly dissipates. But the season itself is far from over, and while the statistical peak may be quiet, on the average about half of the activity occurs after that point (and let's not forget the secondary peak in October...)

Yes, it could poof too (and it's taking a real beating from shear) but it's interesting that it has come back to life a couple of times after the convection faded (because the engery it has is still there). And I agree, some of the season's worst storms can occur just after the peak period. Jeanne, Mitch, Wilma and Joaquin are good examples of that. So far though, we've already have had a lot of storms with a lot of time left to go.

[Dean4Storms]

Kind of strange that this popped up today.