ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[HurricaneBelle]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

Yeah, we've only had 3 hurricanes in the last month, it's September 2 and we're up to the "I" storm. Nothing's developing.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS really stretches it out between hours 30 and 36. Looks to be elongated East to West.

[Steve]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

Yeah, we've only had 3 hurricanes in the last month, it's September 2 and we're up to the "I" storm. Nothing's developing.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Looks like the early runs make this a Caribbean runner. Not sure if that's plausible, but it's only about 18 degrees west of the islands, and it's at a very low latitude. Could be trouble down the line for someone!

[AxaltaRacing24]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

Umm did you forget about Gaston, Fiona, TD8, and Hermine? Those developed in 2016 in the past 2-3 weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

Umm did you forget about Gaston, Fiona, TD8, and Hermine? Those developed in 2016 in the past 2-3 weeks.

Still, I should have clarrified. Don't expect anything major. It's been 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the US. This year has been an anomaly and very flakey in that we've had more activity then what was expected.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

Umm did you forget about Gaston, Fiona, TD8, and Hermine? Those developed in 2016 in the past 2-3 weeks.

Still, I should have clarrified. Don't expect anything major. It's been 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the US. This year has been an anomaly and very flakey in that we've had more activity then what was expected.

I see what you mean. But close development was expected this season. Waves like 99L would fight to develop but would not do so until close to land.

[Steve]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

Umm did you forget about Gaston, Fiona, TD8, and Hermine? Those developed in 2016 in the past 2-3 weeks.

Still, I should have clarrified. Don't expect anything major. It's been 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the US. This year has been an anomaly and very flakey in that we've had more activity then what was expected.

Expected by whom? It seems like the general consensus was that there would be storm numbers in the teens, ACE would be somewhere around 100 (with some guesses much higher and some much lower), it would be a Western-biased season (which it has been), and the US was in play. North America has been hit already by Bonnie, Colin (earliest C storm on record), Danielle, Earl and Hermine (5 of 8). I'm not following unless you're saying that you didn't expect?

[ConvergenceZone]

Umm did you forget about Gaston, Fiona, TD8, and Hermine? Those developed in 2016 in the past 2-3 weeks.

Still, I should have clarrified. Don't expect anything major. It's been 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the US. This year has been an anomaly and very flakey in that we've had more activity then what was expected.

Expected by whom? It seems like the general consensus was that there would be storm numbers in the teens, ACE would be somewhere around 100 (with some guesses much higher and some much lower), it would be a Western-biased season (which it has been), and the US was in play. North America has been hit already by Bonnie, Colin (earliest C storm on record), Danielle, Earl and Hermine (5 of 8). I'm not following unless you're saying that you didn't expect?

Blame the media on TV for filling our heads with the idea that there probably wouldn't be much activity this year

[Steve]

LOL. For what it's worth, SFWMD is now showing the initial runs of the reactivated 92L. Only BAMS and Clipper (!) are out there, but it looks like a threat for this side of the planet if it can get/stay organized into something.

[Blinhart]

I thought this was suppose to be for Models?

[centuryv58]

Still, I should have clarrified. Don't expect anything major. It's been 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the US. This year has been an anomaly and very flakey in that we've had more activity then what was expected.

Expected by whom? It seems like the general consensus was that there would be storm numbers in the teens, ACE would be somewhere around 100 (with some guesses much higher and some much lower), it would be a Western-biased season (which it has been), and the US was in play. North America has been hit already by Bonnie, Colin (earliest C storm on record), Danielle, Earl and Hermine (5 of 8). I'm not following unless you're saying that you didn't expect?

Blame the media on TV for filling our heads with the idea that there probably wouldn't be much activity this year

The media and some others in the field who have been slightly off on their assessments of the MDR and the ATL basin for the past two years.

[Steve]

I thought this was suppose to be for Models?

It is. Not much has been run yet specifically. By 18/00z, we should have more. I'm ignoring globals for the time being.

[ConvergenceZone]

Expected by whom? It seems like the general consensus was that there would be storm numbers in the teens, ACE would be somewhere around 100 (with some guesses much higher and some much lower), it would be a Western-biased season (which it has been), and the US was in play. North America has been hit already by Bonnie, Colin (earliest C storm on record), Danielle, Earl and Hermine (5 of 8). I'm not following unless you're saying that you didn't expect?

Blame the media on TV for filling our heads with the idea that there probably wouldn't be much activity this year

The media and some others in the field who have been slightly off on their assessments of the MDR and the ATL basin for the past two years.

Slightly off? Although I'm sure you are just being sarcastic lol

[Blown Away]

12z GFS has nothing for 92L and maybe a TS fish spinner in Central Atlantic late in the run... Really nothing up to Sept 18th... I guess the Cape Verde Season winding down??

[chaser1]

Umm did you forget about Gaston, Fiona, TD8, and Hermine? Those developed in 2016 in the past 2-3 weeks.

Still, I should have clarrified. Don't expect anything major. It's been 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the US. This year has been an anomaly and very flakey in that we've had more activity then what was expected.

Expected by whom? It seems like the general consensus was that there would be storm numbers in the teens, ACE would be somewhere around 100 (with some guesses much higher and some much lower), it would be a Western-biased season (which it has been), and the US was in play. North America has been hit already by Bonnie, Colin (earliest C storm on record), Danielle, Earl and Hermine (5 of 8). I'm not following unless you're saying that you didn't expect?

Looking at the 12 GFS, it continues to show no development whatsoever. They didn't just "tweek" the GFS, I think they gave it quaaludes lol. I wont repeat ad nauseum what I posted in the 92L discussion but I believe that 92L will develop probably in 3-5 days. One thing of note is that for the first GFS run out of the prior 12, it appears to take most of the moisture and energy with 92L SOUTH of the islands. On each of the prior 11 runs, the GFS tracked the system essentially over them. I'm going to guess that we'll begin to see the GFS become at least a little more bullish on this particular system during the upcoming 3 or 4 runs. As for this season thus far, I couldn't agree more with you, Steve. One wrinkles that I think this season has produced somewhat unexpectedly might be some of the longer tracks originating further east in the MDR than many expected. Otherwise, the only other wrinkle might be the continued high SAL evident. But despite this condition, this Atlantic hurricane season has thus far easily met the level of anticipated genesis that forecasters, prognosticators, weather enthusiasts, readers of S2K, and even my dog "Butch" have anticipated thus far. As for Major hurricanes.... it's Sept 2 - lets see how the next 8 weeks play out.

[gatorcane]

CMC a little stronger in the short-range with a TS for the Lesser Antilles:

[Blinhart]

CMC a little stronger in the short-range with a TS for the Lesser Antilles:

And I can actually see that happening, I think we are in the time of the year that a system like this will spin up and form into a TS right before the islands and stay a TS until the Western edge of the Caribbean around Jamaica.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

12z has nothing for 92L and maybe a TS fish spinner in Central Atlantic late in the run... Really nothing up to Sept 18th... I guess the Cape Verde Season winding down??

Cabo Verde Season.

[cycloneye]

Southsouthwest of PR.

[cycloneye]

Here is where 12z CMC ends with 92L.