ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[stormlover2013]

CMC has it hitting corpus Christi

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess I should have known it would go poof. It is 2016 after all. What was I thinking actually believing this would develop

[gatorcane]

UKMET still develops this

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET still develops this

The Canadian and Navgem show development and now it appears Ukmet shows development too. Can you post an image or at least tell us if it is weak or stronger development?

Gfs, Euro and JMA show no development.

[LarryWx]

Although the 12Z GFS/Euro do essentially nothing with this, about 10 of the 20 12Z GEFS members so have a sfc low from this hitting the CONUS albeit mostly with lows no stronger than 1000 mb. So, even though the chance of this being something significant has clearly dropped in recent days, this is still worth following especially since there is still progged to be a lot of ridging in advance of it near the east coast of the US. Any thoughts about this from others? I know Gator said to keep monitoring. Is this almost definitely dead or might it need to be dealt with in about 8-12 days in the western part of the basin?

PS: I think the UKMET has it but pretty weak if I'm not mistaken.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET has some weak development but it does interact with the islands quite a bit which probably hinders any significant development:

[gatorcane]

UKIE still like this:

[Agua]

Identical to 99l's track.

[CourierPR]

Identical to 99l's track.

Identical to a certain extent. Notice that it shoots the gap through the Windward Passage on that run.

[Emmett_Brown]

The UKMET did pretty good with Hermine as far as genesis goes. GFS did well with the non development part, but failed to really develop Hermine much. Bottom line is that globals dont do the genesis thing very well, but they did pretty good with track once it forms. So if only an occasional model run develops it, we should definitely assume development is still possible.

[cycloneye]

[Siker]

GFS actually develops this in the BoC / Southwest Gulf in 10 days.

Peak:

[northjaxpro]

Seems to be following right on Hermine's heels with the track projection early on here. Lots of time to watch, but fefinitely keeping a wary eye on it for sure.

[cajungal]

GFS actually develops this in the BoC / Southwest Gulf in 10 days.

Peak:

Mexico hit?

[Siker]

GFS actually develops this in the BoC / Southwest Gulf in 10 days.

Peak:

Mexico hit?

Yes, eventually heads into Mexico.

[SoupBone]

GFS showing ridging over the central GoM?

[Blown Away]

No surprise, the BOC has been a sweet spot for development for a number of years... In fact the BOC & N/Central Atlantic now seem to be prime development areas IMO... The rest is blah, it took a true fighter like Hermine to get us a Cat 1...

[gatorcane]

Should this develop into a deep system in the Central-Western Caribbean, it could get pulled north into the weakness left behind by Hermine. For example here is the GFS 500MB map at day 6:

[SoupBone]

Should this develop into a deep system in the Central-Western Caribbean, it could get pulled north into the weakness left behind by Hermine. For example here is the GFS 500MB map at day 6:

Seems odd though given the low latitude and its continued WSW path though.

[stormlover2013]

yeah it might feel the weakness little bit but it won't feel it enough to get sucked up