EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:30 am

EP, 90, 2016083118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 930W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 90, 2016090100, , BEST, 0, 115N, 930W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 90, 2016090106, , BEST, 0, 115N, 930W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
EP, 90, 2016090112, , BEST, 0, 115N, 930W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, ep772016 to ep902016,

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred
miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy rain, flash
floods and mud slides are possible in those areas starting tomorrow
and continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:28 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:44 am

90E is getting its act together quickly. Models are somewhat aggressive with it.

Image



Mostly a NW track paralleling the coast of Mexico but some bring it right into the coast.
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:05 pm

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred
miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves west-
northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy rain, flash floods
and mud slides are likely in these areas starting tomorrow and
continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:42 pm

12z ECMWF brings this over Baja.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:47 pm

i really like these track models im hoping it tracks far enough north and stays in tact enough to bring some rain to Southern California.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby zeehag » Thu Sep 01, 2016 5:54 pm

please just keep it away from me i am caned out
. patricia sucked. beautiful. nasty.
i am in mazatlan prepping for doom.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 2:30 am

1. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become more
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy
rain, flash floods and mud slides are likely in these areas starting
tomorrow and continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:49 am

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected
to become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend
while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Locally heavy rain, flash floods and mud slides are likely in these
areas starting later today and continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:48 am

6z GFS moves this inland quickly while HWRF and ECMWF take landfall this near Baja.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:51 am

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce an extensive
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers, extending several
hundred miles south through southwest of the southern coast of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and this area of disturbed weather is likely to
consolidate and become a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday
while it moves nearly parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rains causing flash
floods and mud slides are expected in coastal portions of the
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and
Nayarit this weekend into early next week. Interests in these areas
and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:56 am

PROBABLE FIX OF A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM NEAR 18.0N 107.0W AT 05/1800Z.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:50 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a low
pressure area extend for several hundred miles near and offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico. Satellite images indicate that the
low pressure area remains elongated with no well-defined center.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and this area of disturbed weather is likely to
consolidate and become a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday
while it moves nearly parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring gusty
winds and very heavy rains to southwestern Mexico. Total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals up to 15 inches are
expected through the weeekend into early next week over the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and
Nayarit. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in areas of mountaineous terrain.
Interests in these areas and Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:55 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure continue to extend for several hundred miles near and
offshore the southern coast of Mexico. Satellite images indicate
that a more well-defined center of circulation may be developing
about 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and the
thunderstorm activity in that area is showing some signs of
organization. Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form on
Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves slowly northward and
then northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring gusty
winds and very heavy rains to southwestern Mexico. Total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals up to 15 inches are
expected through the weekend into early next week over the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
Interests in these areas and Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 6:49 am

A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located just off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form later today or Monday while the disturbance moves
slowly northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Regardless of whether or not development occurs, the system is
already bringing very heavy rains and gusty winds to southwestern
Mexico, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next
couple of days. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible across the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
Interests in these areas as well as the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E - Recon

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:26 am

Code: Select all

    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
       A. 05/2100Z
       B. AFXXX 0115E NEWTON
       C. 05/1730Z
       D. 18.5N 107.5W
       E. 05/2030Z TO 05/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX MISSION FOR 06/1800Z.
    3. REMARKS: THESE FLIGHTS WILL ONLY GO IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
       AS EXPECTED AND IS A THREAT
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:27 pm

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located
about 250 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become
better defined today. In addition, the associated showers and
thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical
depression will likely form later today or tonight. This low is
expected to move generally northwestward, and interests in
southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system.

Regardless of whether or not development occurs, the system is
already bringing very heavy rains and gusty winds to southwestern
Mexico, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next
couple days. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible across the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:28 pm

IMO this will get classified by 2 PM PDT.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:55 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:IMO this will get classified by 2 PM PDT.


You were right, we now have TD 15-E!

Hurricane Watch is up for Baja.

Image
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:59 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 042050
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Baja
California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo
San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued within 48 hours
of the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.4
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph
(4 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is
expected to approach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula late Monday night or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and
could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican
states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the
state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 042050
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

The area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of
Mexico has become better organized today. Satellite data indicate
that the center of circulation is now well defined, and thunderstorm
activity is sufficiently organized to classify the system as a
tropical depression. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum
winds were near 30 kt, and that is used as the initial wind speed.

The initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it
has just formed, but the best guess is 345/2 kt. A faster
northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue for
the next couple of days while the system moves in the flow on the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge. This pattern should take
the cyclone very near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula in about 2 days. A more northward motion is
forecast after that time when the cyclone moves around the ridge.
The model guidance is in fair agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The depression is in an environment of moist air, moderate shear and
over warm waters. Since the cyclone is expected to remain in those
conditions until it nears the Baja coast, steady strengthening is
anticipated. Once it crosses Baja, land interaction and an
increase in shear should cause weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is fairly close to the intensity model consensus.

It is worth noting that there are large differences in the future
wind radii predicted by the global and statistical models. The
NHC size forecast closely follows the wind radii consensus model.

Based on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane warning could
be required by tonight. Heavy rains, which could result in flash
flooding and mud slides, are expected to continue over portions of
southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These rains will likely
spread over the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.0N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:14 pm

How do the storm and the environment compare to Odile?
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