EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:17 pm

Another Baja threat. Looks like this one will probably be worse than Javier.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:How do the storm and the environment compare to Odile?


Odile had SSTs of 30 degrees and moderate shear at first that diminished over time. According to SHIPS 15-E should encounter waters no colder than 29 degrees, 22 kts of shear right now but dropping to ~10 kts in the next 12-24 hours.

Major difference is Odile had a lot more time to strengthen (almost 5 days from formation to landfall) than 15-E will have.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby zeehag » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:09 pm

didnt odile go thru rapid intensification off cabo corrientes ??
i recall that many like to do that there.
you mets guys call it xxx miles south of cabo san lucas, but it is kinda parallel with corrientes.
these are fun to watch and i am grateful the course is not over mazatlan ...
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:18 pm

zeehag wrote:didnt odile go thru rapid intensification off cabo corrientes ??
i recall that many like to do that there.
you mets guys call it xxx miles south of cabo san lucas, but it is kinda parallel with corrientes.
these are fun to watch and i am grateful the course is not over mazatlan ...


Yeah, Odile strengthened from a high-end TS to a C4 in 36 hours or so right in the area where TD 15-E is now.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:56 pm

I'm hoping that this could bring some rain up here in northern Utah, but the path currently looks too far east.

We need the rain bad, and while moisture from decaying tropical systems making it this far north is rare, it does happen.
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 105.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued within 48 hours
of the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 105.4
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 4
mph (6 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is
expected to approach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula late Monday night or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and
could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican
states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the
state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:04 pm

05/0000 UTC 16.8N 105.2W T2.0/2.0 15E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:05 pm

EP, 15, 2016090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1055W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 50, 0, 1004, 130, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NEWTON, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:55 pm

The NOAA Satellite floater page has it named Newton already. So, I suspect it will be upgraded at 11p EST
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:36 pm

Newton!!
:rofl: :rofl:

Sorry, I just thought of the scientist named Newton as well as the SI unit for weight which is the Newton and found the name very funny. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:08 pm

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

A pair of ASCAT passes late this afternoon indicated that the
depression was producing 30-35 kt winds on its southern side.
Since the last advisory, the circulation and convective pattern
have continued to improve, and both subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates have increased. Based on all these data, the depression
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Newton with maximum winds of 35 kt.

There might be multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common
center, but the best estimate of the center yields an initial
motion of 340/7 kt. Newton is located to the south of a
mid-tropospheric ridge which extends from Texas southwestward over
the Pacific. However, an amplifying trough near California is
expected to shunt the ridge eastward within the next 24 hours,
which will help to accelerate Newton toward the northwest or
north-northwest during the next couple of days. There is very
little spread among the track guidance, but most of the models
(with the exception of the EMCWF) are now a little faster than the
previous NHC forecast. The new NHC forecast is therefore a little
faster, bringing the center of Newton very close to the extreme
southern Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. After that,
Newton is forecast to turn northward, moving over the Baja
California peninsula, the Gulf of California, and into northwestern
mainland Mexico by day 3.

Newton is over very deep, warm water at the moment, and SSTs are
expected to be between 28-30C until the cyclone reaches the Baja
California peninsula. In addition, vertical shear is expected to
remain low for the next couple of days. Therefore, Newton is
expected to strengthen before it reaches land, with rapid
intensification not out of the question. The Rapid Intensification
Index currently shows a 1-in-4 chance of a 30-kt increase in winds
during the next 24 hours. Most of the hurricane models, both
dynamical and statistical, are only showing modest strengthening,
but the global model fields indicate that Newton could be near
hurricane intensity when it is near the Baja California peninsula.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast now brings Newton to just
below hurricane intensity in 36 hours, which is at the high end of
the guidance. Weakening should occur after 36 hours due to
interaction with land and increasing vertical shear.

Although the official forecast does not explicitly show Newton
becoming a hurricane, it will be close enough to hurricane strength
that the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for the
extreme southern Baja California peninsula. Additional tropical
storm watches and warnings have been issued since Newton's wind
field is expected to expand.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.4N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 20.2N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.3N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 24.7N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA PENINSULA
72H 08/0000Z 29.9N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:39 am

15E NEWTON 160905 0600 17.3N 105.8W EPAC 40 998
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:11 am

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Newton appears to be gradually strengthening. The tropical storm is
producing a large area of deep convection, which is a little better
organized than it was several hours ago. The Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin are close to 3.0/45 kt. Based on these
data, the initial wind speed estimate is increased to 40 kt.

The low-level center has been challenging to locate overnight, but
it appears that Newton is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.
The tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward at a faster
pace during the next day or two while it tracks along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
south-central United States. A turn to the north is expected beyond
a couple of days when Newton rounds the ridge and moves into a
pronounced weakness. The track guidance has shifted a little to the
west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction. The new NHC forecast brings the center of Newton very
close to the extreme southern Baja California peninsula in 24 to 36
hours.

Low shear, a moist environment, and very warm water should allow
Newton to steadily strengthen until it reaches the Baja California
peninsula. In fact, rapid intensification is a possibility as the
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40 percent chance of a
30-kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours. Based on the
expected conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast remains
near the high end of the guidance during the next day or two. After
Newton passes the Baja peninsula, weakening should occur due to land
interaction and an increase in vertical wind shear.

Based on the latest forecast, the Government of Mexico has extended
the watches and warnings northward along the Baja California
coastlines and the west coast of mainland Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.9N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 07/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 08/0600Z 31.2N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:18 am

15E NEWTON 160905 1200 18.6N 106.6W EPAC 50 995

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
600 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

...NEWTON HEADING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 106.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:10 am

The latest SHIPS RI forecast is worrying. Basically a 70% chance of Newton strengthening to 95 knots right before landfall...

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 6.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 10.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 71% is 10.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:23 am

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Newton's cloud pattern is characterized by a large mass of very
cold-topped convection, with the center located underneath this
formative central dense overcast on the north side. A ship earlier
reported 50 kt, and although the ship had somewhat of a high bias,
the 12z sounding from Manzanillo reported an 850 mb wind of 65 kt.
A typical wind reduction over the water would suggest about 50 kt
at the surface, and since the sounding supports the ship
observation, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.

The center location of Newton has been difficult to determine, and
hence the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/11. Newton
is currently being steered northwestward on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge over the United States Lower Mississippi Valley.
The cyclone should be drawn north-northwestward and then northward
in 36 to 48 hours between this feature and a trough of low pressure
gradually lifting out over the western United States. The official
NHC track forecast is somewhat faster and slightly to the left of
the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. It lies on
the western side of the guidance, but with only the ECMWF and UKMET
models to the left.

Newton is expected to remain in a very moist environment with
generally light northeasterly shear during the next 24 hours.
These factors, along with the cyclone's passage over sea surface
temperatures above 29 deg C, should allow for steady
intensification until the center reaches the coast. The only
obvious obstacle to strengthening is Newton's broad structure, but
indications are that the cyclone may be in the process of
consolidating. It should be noted that the SHIPS RI Index
indicates a 60-70 percent chance of an intensity increase of around
25 kt during the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now
calls for Newton to become a hurricane prior to landfall, which is
a little above the multi-model consensus. Weakening is likely when
Newton moves across the Baja California peninsula, but little
change in strength is expected as southwesterly shear begins to
increase over the Gulf of California in 36 to 48 hours.

Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

Based on the new intensity and track forecasts, the government of
Mexico has made a variety of changes to the watches and warnings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 19.1N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Macrocane » Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:35 am

Incredible gigantic circulation :eek:
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:05 am

Shear looks much lower than I thought. Should be a hurricane at landfall, possibly a Cat 2/3.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:34 am

It will have a shot at a major. Biggest inhibitor is time, hopefully it won't RI for the residents of baja but they should prepare for it no less. The west coast of MX should be no stranger to significant hurricane hits as it's basically happened every year the past few...

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:16 pm

Plane departs from San Diego torwards NEWTON.

Image
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