EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:00 pm

So Odile's brother?
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:16 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 051748
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
1200 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

...NEWTON STILL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 107.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...440 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
* north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
* north of San Evaristo to Mulege
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro
* north of San Evaristo to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya
* north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 107.6 West. Newton is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward
the north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday
and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday
morning, and move over portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is likely, and Newton is forecast to become a
hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center, primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, hurricane conditions are
expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early
Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday.

For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions are occurring
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today. Farther northward,
tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico
beginning Tuesday morning, and these conditions will gradually
spread northward throughout the day. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch areas in Sinaloa early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch in
Sonora by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are expected across
portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico from late
Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of up to 3 inches
possible. These rains could result in flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside
on Wednesday. Swells should increase across the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby zeehag » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:37 pm

i donot know if it is my having survived patriciacane that is doing it, but i have a bad feeling about his one.
wasnt patricias center measured 875 mb>?? and this is 850?? doesnt that give me heebie jeebies ???? i donot trust storms at cabo corrientes. they invariably turn mean there.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:51 pm

zeehag wrote:i donot know if it is my having survived patriciacane that is doing it, but i have a bad feeling about his one.
wasnt patricias center measured 875 mb>?? and this is 850?? doesnt that give me heebie jeebies ???? i donot trust storms at cabo corrientes. they invariably turn mean there.


To be clear, this isn't anywhere near 850mbar at sea level. Latest NHC advisory had it at 989mbar.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:04 pm

Yeah this is nothing comparable to Patricia. But won't be surprised if it hits baja more than just a minimal cane. Perhaps an eye trying to form?

Image
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:02 pm

Our local news just said we can expect rain from Newton starting tomorrow, or at least later in the week. I admit it was on the radio and I was driving so I wasn't paying a lot of attention to when exactly though.

I wouldn't mind a little rain, but hopefully not too much. It seemed kind of wet here in August for our standards to me, and I remember what Norbert did to the Phoenix area, leaving a lake in our neighborhood park!

-Andrew92
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:11 pm

E Pacific USAF High-Density Observations


000
URPN15 KNHC 052008
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 24 20160905
195900 2216N 10720W 5350 05316 0245 -012 //// 140049 050 023 001 01
195930 2214N 10718W 5466 05144 0234 -007 //// 139049 050 024 000 01
200000 2213N 10717W 5587 04969 //// -004 //// 140050 050 024 000 01
200030 2212N 10715W 5710 04794 //// +001 //// 141050 051 023 001 01
200100 2211N 10714W 5835 04618 //// +010 //// 142050 051 026 001 01
200130 2210N 10713W 5960 04446 //// +020 //// 138053 054 026 000 01
200200 2209N 10711W 6091 04271 //// +036 //// 139052 054 026 000 01
200230 2207N 10710W 6226 04092 //// +052 //// 136050 051 024 000 01
200300 2206N 10709W 6358 03920 //// +065 //// 141050 051 025 000 01
200330 2205N 10707W 6496 03741 0032 +075 +053 141053 055 025 000 00
200400 2204N 10706W 6630 03573 0032 +086 +058 142055 056 026 000 00
200430 2203N 10705W 6745 03425 0037 +088 +070 147051 054 026 000 00
200500 2202N 10704W 6825 03326 0038 +091 +079 143048 050 027 000 00
200530 2201N 10702W 6898 03237 //// +083 //// 140050 052 028 001 01
200600 2200N 10701W 6950 03170 //// +078 //// 143054 056 031 001 01
200630 2159N 10700W 6978 03135 //// +088 //// 144049 055 032 004 01
200700 2158N 10659W 6961 03156 //// +084 //// 144046 049 032 004 01
200730 2157N 10658W 6969 03146 0058 +099 //// 137045 050 033 005 01
200800 2156N 10657W 6953 03164 0067 +101 //// 133038 043 033 005 01
200830 2155N 10655W 6974 03144 //// +086 //// 135044 046 037 004 05
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:20 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052018
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 25 20160905
200900 2153N 10655W 6959 03159 0077 +098 //// 127044 046 040 006 01
200930 2152N 10655W 6966 03150 0078 +107 +107 123045 046 042 007 00
201000 2150N 10655W 6965 03153 0085 +108 +108 128047 049 043 008 00
201030 2149N 10654W 6967 03150 0086 +082 //// 135046 047 038 014 01
201100 2148N 10653W 6966 03152 //// +079 //// 135046 046 033 004 01
201130 2148N 10653W 6966 03152 //// +079 //// 135046 046 032 002 01
201200 2145N 10652W 6966 03155 //// +081 //// 138046 048 029 002 05
201230 2144N 10651W 6963 03156 //// +086 //// 137048 048 039 001 05
201300 2143N 10650W 6965 03152 //// +091 //// 141048 048 037 001 01
201330 2141N 10649W 6966 03151 //// +090 //// 140046 047 035 003 01
201400 2140N 10649W 6963 03153 //// +085 //// 140046 047 034 003 01
201430 2139N 10648W 6966 03150 //// +086 //// 142048 049 037 001 01
201500 2138N 10647W 6965 03151 //// +090 //// 142049 050 034 001 01
201530 2136N 10646W 6965 03151 //// +090 //// 143047 049 035 001 01
201600 2135N 10645W 6966 03150 //// +093 //// 144048 048 037 001 01
201630 2134N 10645W 6966 03148 //// +091 //// 146049 049 039 001 01
201700 2133N 10644W 6965 03150 //// +090 //// 147050 050 040 000 01
201730 2132N 10643W 6966 03148 //// +092 //// 147050 051 041 002 01
201800 2130N 10642W 6965 03148 //// +087 //// 144051 051 041 002 05
201830 2129N 10643W 6961 03150 //// +088 //// 142051 052 037 001 01
$$
;
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:30 pm

URPN15 KNHC 052028
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 26 20160905
201900 2128N 10644W 6970 03137 //// +077 //// 147053 054 039 003 01
201930 2127N 10646W 6963 03140 //// +078 //// 147050 052 040 002 01
202000 2125N 10647W 6966 03139 //// +086 //// 145050 050 043 002 01
202030 2124N 10648W 6965 03137 //// +085 //// 147052 053 043 001 01
202100 2123N 10649W 6966 03136 //// +089 //// 145054 054 043 000 01
202130 2122N 10651W 6963 03139 //// +095 //// 144053 054 047 001 01
202200 2121N 10652W 6966 03134 //// +095 //// 144054 055 047 001 01
202230 2119N 10653W 6965 03133 //// +086 //// 144057 058 048 001 01
202300 2118N 10655W 6967 03129 //// +078 //// 146058 059 050 002 01
202330 2117N 10656W 6963 03130 //// +089 //// 144062 063 049 002 01
202400 2116N 10657W 6970 03122 //// +092 //// 147063 064 051 002 01
202430 2115N 10659W 6965 03123 //// +095 //// 147061 063 053 002 01
202500 2114N 10700W 6967 03122 //// +092 //// 154061 061 053 003 01
202530 2113N 10701W 6963 03122 0035 +096 //// 151061 065 054 004 01
202600 2111N 10702W 6965 03120 0033 +108 //// 150068 070 053 008 01
202630 2110N 10703W 6965 03117 //// +099 //// 154071 072 053 004 01
202700 2109N 10705W 6961 03119 //// +100 //// 155072 074 052 001 01
202730 2108N 10706W 6966 03111 //// +100 //// 155072 074 052 001 01
202800 2107N 10707W 6966 03107 //// +094 //// 154069 072 052 002 01
202830 2106N 10708W 6964 03109 //// +091 //// 153067 069 051 001 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:31 pm

74 FL 54 SFMR. Likely 60 knots.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:42 pm

AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 27 20160905
202900 2105N 10709W 6964 03109 //// +090 //// 152064 067 051 001 01
202930 2104N 10711W 6967 03106 //// +092 //// 151063 064 048 001 01
203000 2103N 10712W 6965 03106 //// +090 //// 150064 064 049 001 01
203030 2101N 10713W 6966 03102 //// +094 //// 150063 064 053 001 01
203100 2100N 10714W 6967 03100 //// +094 //// 149062 063 055 001 01
203130 2059N 10716W 6962 03103 //// +093 //// 147065 065 056 003 01
203200 2058N 10717W 6967 03095 //// +097 //// 148064 065 056 003 01
203230 2057N 10718W 6966 03094 //// +093 //// 149066 067 055 006 01
203300 2056N 10719W 6966 03092 //// +099 //// 150066 067 057 003 01
203330 2055N 10721W 6966 03090 //// +100 //// 149067 067 058 003 01
203400 2053N 10722W 6965 03087 //// +104 //// 147064 066 057 002 01
203430 2052N 10723W 6967 03084 //// +107 //// 146065 065 056 002 01
203500 2051N 10724W 6963 03084 //// +107 //// 145065 066 055 003 01
203530 2050N 10726W 6965 03080 //// +105 //// 144062 065 055 002 01
203600 2049N 10727W 6966 03074 //// +106 //// 146062 062 053 003 01
203630 2048N 10728W 6962 03073 //// +091 //// 142063 065 055 005 05
203700 2046N 10729W 6965 03070 //// +082 //// 146058 062 059 016 05
203730 2045N 10731W 6964 03064 //// +092 //// 149057 061 059 004 01
203800 2044N 10732W 6956 03069 //// +082 //// 150050 053 056 006 05
203830 2043N 10733W 6961 03059 //// +075 //// 157049 049 052 007 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:50 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052048
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 28 20160905
203900 2042N 10734W 6967 03056 //// +095 //// 155050 051 052 005 01
203930 2041N 10736W 6967 03055 //// +100 //// 157048 050 052 001 01
204000 2039N 10737W 6965 03053 //// +108 //// 155047 048 050 001 01
204030 2038N 10738W 6967 03051 //// +109 //// 155049 049 049 003 01
204100 2037N 10740W 6966 03048 //// +105 //// 157046 048 049 002 01
204130 2036N 10741W 6963 03050 //// +114 //// 161046 047 047 002 01
204200 2035N 10742W 6969 03041 //// +119 //// 162045 046 045 000 01
204230 2034N 10744W 6967 03041 //// +117 //// 164043 044 044 001 01
204300 2033N 10745W 6967 03039 //// +116 //// 167043 044 044 001 01
204330 2032N 10747W 6962 03041 //// +116 //// 164041 044 043 001 01
204400 2032N 10749W 6967 03034 //// +118 //// 168038 040 040 000 01
204430 2031N 10750W 6966 03034 //// +120 //// 167036 038 038 000 01
204500 2030N 10752W 6966 03031 //// +122 //// 168035 036 038 000 01
204530 2030N 10754W 6967 03027 //// +121 //// 169033 034 036 001 01
204600 2030N 10756W 6965 03029 //// +132 //// 160029 032 038 000 05
204630 2029N 10758W 6965 03028 //// +144 //// 153025 027 038 000 01
204700 2028N 10759W 6967 03023 //// +138 //// 157023 024 037 000 01
204730 2028N 10801W 6966 03023 //// +127 //// 159022 024 035 000 05
204800 2027N 10803W 6963 03024 //// +130 //// 167017 021 034 000 05
204830 2026N 10805W 6966 03019 //// +130 //// 169013 015 032 000 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 05, 2016 3:58 pm

Likely at the very least a 60kt TS if not a minimal hurricane by the time the advisory comes out.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#54 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:02 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052059
TCDEP5

HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen.
A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more
symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds
of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this
time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton
is in an environment of light shear and very warm water. The
official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus
in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility.
Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since
landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points.
Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction
with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given
the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong
tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora.

Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14. Newton
should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48
hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the
southern United States. The biggest change in the latest model
cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of
the previous guidance. This makes sense because, with a stronger
Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would
steer the deeper storm in that direction. The new NHC track
prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period.

Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#55 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:05 pm

9th hurricane of the season
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:10 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052058
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 29 20160905
204900 2026N 10807W 6963 03023 //// +131 //// 142006 011 030 000 05
204930 2025N 10809W 6967 03017 //// +135 //// 080004 005 030 000 01
205000 2024N 10810W 6966 03022 //// +138 //// 049005 006 030 000 01
205030 2023N 10812W 6967 03020 //// +135 //// 031005 006 029 000 01
205100 2022N 10813W 6965 03024 //// +134 //// 011006 006 029 000 01
205130 2020N 10815W 6965 03024 //// +132 //// 348006 006 028 000 01
205200 2019N 10816W 6965 03025 //// +131 //// 335008 009 028 000 01
205230 2018N 10818W 6966 03025 //// +128 //// 321010 010 027 000 01
205300 2016N 10819W 6966 03028 //// +127 //// 326012 013 030 000 01
205330 2015N 10821W 6966 03030 //// +130 //// 327016 018 032 000 01
205400 2014N 10822W 6966 03031 //// +132 //// 327021 022 036 000 01
205430 2013N 10824W 6966 03035 //// +128 //// 327025 026 037 000 01
205500 2012N 10826W 6963 03039 //// +127 //// 324027 029 038 001 01
205530 2011N 10827W 6966 03039 //// +125 //// 327030 031 040 000 05
205600 2011N 10829W 6965 03044 //// +123 //// 326028 030 042 000 01
205630 2010N 10831W 6967 03044 //// +104 //// 335028 029 047 008 01
205700 2009N 10832W 6959 03055 //// +096 //// 335033 035 054 009 35
205730 2009N 10834W 6963 03053 //// +100 //// 339033 035 054 005 04
205800 2007N 10835W 6968 03053 //// +090 //// 341033 035 052 008 05
205830 2005N 10836W 6962 03062 //// +110 //// 336032 033 052 003 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#57 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:10 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052108
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 30 20160905
205900 2003N 10837W 6963 03064 //// +114 //// 333033 034 051 002 01
205930 2002N 10838W 6967 03062 //// +100 //// 328035 037 051 007 05
210000 2000N 10838W 6962 03068 //// +077 //// 328034 037 053 012 01
210030 1958N 10839W 6967 03067 //// +074 //// 327033 036 056 027 05
210100 1956N 10840W 6976 03062 //// +074 //// 312039 040 051 030 01
210130 1955N 10841W 6960 03084 //// +071 //// 312042 044 051 028 05
210200 1953N 10842W 6967 03079 //// +074 //// 308042 044 051 011 05
210230 1952N 10844W 6966 03085 //// +081 //// 310046 046 048 007 01
210300 1951N 10845W 6967 03084 //// +071 //// 311051 055 048 013 05
210330 1950N 10846W 6969 03084 //// +064 //// 306049 056 049 017 01
210400 1948N 10847W 6958 03107 //// +074 //// 304040 046 052 022 05
210430 1947N 10849W 6963 03097 //// +074 //// 315043 048 049 040 05
210500 1946N 10850W 6969 03095 //// +070 //// 311042 050 047 014 05
210530 1945N 10851W 6962 03103 //// +070 //// 315042 043 048 010 01
210600 1943N 10853W 6966 03099 //// +068 //// 310042 042 048 010 05
210630 1941N 10853W 6962 03105 //// +067 //// 304041 042 /// /// 05
210700 1941N 10851W 6967 03098 //// +067 //// 301040 044 047 010 05
210730 1941N 10849W 6962 03104 //// +066 //// 307041 044 046 013 01
210800 1941N 10846W 6967 03097 //// +067 //// 305042 043 048 009 01
210830 1941N 10844W 6969 03092 //// +064 //// 306041 044 047 008 05
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:26 pm

Code: Select all



000
URPN12 KNHC 052123
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP152016
A. 05/20:49:30Z
B. 20 deg 25 min N
  108 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2979 m
D. 59 kt
E. 062 deg 40 nm
F. 154 deg 74 kt
G. 055 deg 74 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 10 C / 3048 m
J. 14 C / 3049 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C48
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF309 0115E NEWTON             OB 06
MAX FL WIND 74 KT 055 / 74 NM 20:27:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 165 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 070 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYEWALL WEAK NW
;

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#59 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:29 pm

Insanely low shear combined with warm SSTs

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 73 72 64 53 43 38 34 31 30
V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 61 56 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 69 57 49 38 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 2 3 12 20 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 337 43 47 21 178 212 217 228 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.8 25.6 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 156 151 153 164 121 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 74 68 55 50 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 52 43 47 55 28 14 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 85 89 76 55 62 56 32 21 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 7 3 0 0 -1 13 9 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 213 283 147 -2 -18 9 -99 -239 -491 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.1 26.8 29.7 32.3 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.0 110.8 111.7 111.4 110.9 110.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 29 34 23 13 8 15 33 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#60 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:39 pm

Yeah this could definitely become Odile's brother at this rate.
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