EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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Kazmit
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:15 pm

I'm surprised Newton's still a TS while this far inland. A tropical cyclone over Arizona is quite rare. Shouldn't be alive for much longer though, the mountains of Mexico really teared it up.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:42 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071437
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Even after landfall, Newton has been producing a noteworthy burst
of deep convection that will be moving into southeastern Arizona
very soon. However, the low-level center is becoming partially
exposed to the south and southwest of the convection due to almost
30 kt of shear. The maximum winds are reduced to 45 kt based on a
steady decay rate, but without observations this estimate is quite
uncertain. For what it's worth, the NWS WSR-88D from Tucson,
Arizona, is showing 50-kt winds at an elevation of 10,000 ft, so an
intensity between 40-45 kt seems reasonable.

Newton has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion of
015/16 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24
hours before Newton dissipates. After that time, Newton's remnants
could turn eastward and move into southern New Mexico and western
Texas.

Based on the decay rate shown by the intensity models, Newton could
still move into Arizona as a tropical storm this afternoon, but it
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this evening.
Regardless of Newton's exact intensity, it is important to remember
that wind speeds on the tops of hills and mountains could be higher
than the surface wind speeds indicated in the forecast. The rugged
terrain should cause the cyclone to dissipate overnight.

The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will
continue spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New
Mexico over the next day or so. These rains could cause flooding
and mud slides. Consult statements from you local weather offices
for possible flash flood warnings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 30.2N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/0000Z 32.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby kala » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:52 pm

Image

poof
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:42 pm

Killjoys at the NHC.

Based on the data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:47 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of
southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite
imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep
convection. In addition, there have been no surface reports of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data
from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt
at an elevation of 4000 feet. Therefore, Newton is being declared a
post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt. Based on the
data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.

There have been some adjustments to the center position based on
visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16
kt. The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to
turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation.
Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight,
and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the
Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.

Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue
over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico
through tonight. Consult statements from your local National
Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings. The
Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on
Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and
flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

#106 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:54 pm

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

#107 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:05 pm

Well, although Bones has chimed in with his thoughts, let us not forget Newton has already brought and continues to bring some heavy rainfall, which in that area of the country, is not very accustomed to experience flooding. Keep our thoughts with those folks in the desert Southwest region.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

#108 Postby kala » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:32 pm

24 hour rainfall totals in my area

Image

Image
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