EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#61 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:44 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Yeah this could definitely become Odile's brother at this rate.


I'd guess this becomes somewhat weaker honestly, around 90 knots. Also, at this point, Odile was a Cat 4.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:56 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052148
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 34 20160905
213900 1937N 10715W 6966 03122 //// +095 //// 192040 041 043 001 01
213930 1939N 10716W 6965 03123 //// +098 //// 191039 039 042 001 01
214000 1940N 10718W 6966 03119 //// +098 //// 189040 040 042 000 01
214030 1942N 10719W 6965 03119 //// +097 //// 189042 043 043 000 01
214100 1943N 10721W 6966 03116 //// +099 //// 191043 043 042 000 01
214130 1945N 10722W 6966 03114 //// +096 //// 191045 046 042 000 05
214200 1946N 10724W 6967 03113 //// +094 //// 188045 046 044 001 01
214230 1947N 10725W 6965 03115 //// +086 //// 192041 044 046 000 01
214300 1949N 10727W 6962 03113 //// +093 //// 194043 043 046 000 01
214330 1950N 10728W 6966 03109 //// +094 //// 196043 044 047 001 01
214400 1952N 10730W 6966 03108 //// +091 //// 197043 044 048 001 01
214430 1953N 10731W 6965 03107 //// +080 //// 197046 047 048 005 01
214500 1954N 10732W 6966 03104 //// +084 //// 198046 047 049 004 01
214530 1956N 10734W 6965 03102 //// +090 //// 199047 048 050 002 01
214600 1957N 10735W 6965 03101 //// +091 //// 198049 050 050 002 01
214630 1959N 10737W 6965 03097 //// +090 //// 198046 049 051 004 01
214700 2000N 10738W 6967 03091 //// +084 //// 200048 049 052 005 01
214730 2001N 10740W 6966 03089 //// +084 //// 196050 053 052 007 01
214800 2003N 10741W 6966 03087 //// +079 //// 192062 066 054 005 01
214830 2004N 10743W 6963 03087 //// +078 //// 192068 069 054 008 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:01 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052158
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 35 20160905
214900 2006N 10745W 6968 03076 //// +062 //// 190069 070 057 012 01
214930 2007N 10746W 6968 03074 //// +071 //// 198061 066 061 011 01
215000 2009N 10748W 6957 03082 //// +071 //// 206060 062 061 011 01
215030 2010N 10749W 6968 03061 //// +087 //// 209060 062 064 008 05
215100 2011N 10750W 6965 03058 //// +088 //// 209057 060 062 006 01
215130 2013N 10752W 6961 03062 //// +094 //// 208058 059 063 004 01
215200 2014N 10753W 6967 03050 //// +110 //// 208057 057 064 003 01
215230 2015N 10755W 6963 03051 //// +113 //// 205053 057 063 006 01
215300 2017N 10756W 6965 03045 //// +119 //// 198049 051 062 006 01
215330 2018N 10758W 6970 03037 //// +117 //// 201046 048 061 003 01
215400 2019N 10759W 6963 03039 //// +120 //// 206042 044 062 002 01
215430 2020N 10801W 6963 03035 //// +125 //// 204038 040 056 003 01
215500 2021N 10803W 6967 03029 //// +123 //// 205035 037 044 000 05
215530 2022N 10804W 6963 03031 //// +127 //// 205031 033 042 000 01
215600 2023N 10806W 6964 03029 //// +131 //// 205028 031 040 000 05
215630 2023N 10808W 6963 03027 //// +134 //// 205025 027 039 000 01
215700 2024N 10810W 6967 03020 //// +135 //// 208022 024 037 000 05
215730 2025N 10811W 6963 03024 //// +138 //// 208017 021 033 000 01
215800 2026N 10813W 6965 03020 //// +136 //// 209014 015 029 000 01
215830 2027N 10815W 6967 03017 //// +136 //// 216012 014 028 000 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:11 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052208
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 36 20160905
215900 2027N 10817W 6962 03023 //// +133 //// 211011 011 027 000 01
215930 2028N 10818W 6966 03018 //// +135 //// 221007 010 027 000 01
220000 2029N 10820W 6966 03018 //// +133 //// 244005 006 027 000 01
220030 2030N 10822W 6962 03022 //// +131 //// 260004 005 028 000 01
220100 2031N 10823W 6967 03014 //// +134 //// 290005 005 027 000 01
220130 2032N 10825W 6961 03023 //// +131 //// 301005 006 026 000 01
220200 2033N 10827W 6969 03014 //// +132 //// 314006 008 026 000 01
220230 2034N 10828W 6968 03014 //// +136 //// 337008 009 027 000 01
220300 2036N 10829W 6965 03022 //// +135 //// 357011 011 026 000 01
220330 2037N 10830W 6961 03024 //// +139 //// 006012 015 026 000 01
220400 2038N 10832W 6965 03021 //// +139 //// 018016 017 028 000 01
220430 2039N 10833W 6967 03019 //// +136 //// 024017 017 029 000 01
220500 2041N 10834W 6963 03028 //// +138 //// 035019 020 030 001 01
220530 2042N 10836W 6966 03025 //// +132 //// 036024 026 031 001 01
220600 2043N 10837W 6966 03028 //// +127 //// 032028 030 032 002 04
220630 2045N 10838W 6967 03028 //// +121 //// 035030 030 035 002 31
220700 2046N 10840W 6966 03033 //// +097 //// 035032 033 042 005 01
220730 2047N 10841W 6961 03040 //// +099 //// 037034 038 050 009 05
220800 2048N 10842W 6966 03039 //// +103 //// 036038 040 050 006 01
220830 2050N 10844W 6971 03036 //// +089 //// 039035 036 053 011 05
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:21 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052218
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 37 20160905
220900 2051N 10845W 6958 03056 //// +098 //// 039034 037 050 014 05
220930 2052N 10846W 6963 03051 //// +092 //// 047039 040 050 010 05
221000 2053N 10848W 6964 03053 //// +089 //// 040037 041 050 007 01
221030 2055N 10849W 6963 03056 //// +100 //// 042038 042 049 004 01
221100 2056N 10850W 6964 03058 //// +095 //// 037042 046 050 003 01
221130 2057N 10852W 6966 03057 //// +104 //// 037044 045 051 004 01
221200 2058N 10853W 6963 03064 //// +095 //// 039044 045 050 006 01
221230 2100N 10854W 6965 03064 //// +106 //// 039044 044 050 006 01
221300 2101N 10856W 6966 03066 //// +107 //// 045045 046 049 005 01
221330 2102N 10857W 6968 03066 //// +097 //// 043043 046 049 002 01
221400 2103N 10858W 6967 03069 //// +107 //// 043041 042 049 001 01
221430 2105N 10900W 6963 03077 //// +094 //// 047045 048 048 004 01
221500 2106N 10901W 6974 03067 //// +104 //// 049045 047 048 002 01
221530 2107N 10902W 6962 03085 //// +113 //// 046043 045 048 001 01
221600 2109N 10904W 6966 03080 //// +110 //// 046044 045 049 002 01
221630 2110N 10905W 6963 03088 //// +110 //// 048043 044 047 001 01
221700 2111N 10907W 6968 03086 //// +111 //// 048043 044 046 000 01
221730 2112N 10908W 6961 03092 //// +110 //// 049038 040 045 001 01
221800 2114N 10909W 6967 03090 //// +103 //// 051040 041 046 001 01
221830 2115N 10911W 6963 03096 //// +103 //// 054039 041 046 001 01
$$
;
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#66 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:04 pm

Agreed with Yellow Evan. While not badly organized, the core is likely too broad for true rapid intensification.

Image
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:20 pm

URPN15 KNHC 052308
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 42 20160905
225900 2058N 10817W 6965 03023 //// +134 //// 150033 033 046 001 01
225930 2100N 10815W 6965 03027 //// +132 //// 147036 038 053 000 01
230000 2101N 10814W 6963 03030 //// +130 //// 144040 042 061 000 01
230030 2102N 10813W 6964 03030 //// +129 //// 146044 044 064 001 01
230100 2104N 10811W 6963 03036 //// +123 //// 145048 049 069 002 01
230130 2105N 10810W 6966 03035 //// +121 //// 148051 052 068 005 01
230200 2106N 10808W 6962 03041 //// +120 //// 150053 054 066 001 01
230230 2108N 10807W 6967 03039 //// +116 //// 150053 054 066 003 01
230300 2109N 10806W 6963 03047 //// +107 //// 151062 068 065 005 01
230330 2110N 10804W 6971 03043 //// +085 //// 146074 076 065 008 05
230400 2112N 10803W 6966 03051 //// +083 //// 145078 079 064 009 01
230430 2113N 10801W 6969 03052 //// +078 //// 146080 081 064 013 05
230500 2114N 10800W 6964 03066 //// +073 //// 144086 087 /// /// 05
230530 2115N 10759W 6965 03066 //// +069 //// 144078 087 058 008 01
230600 2117N 10757W 6963 03074 //// +064 //// 141077 079 058 007 01
230630 2118N 10756W 6962 03077 //// +069 //// 141078 078 057 006 01
230700 2119N 10754W 6963 03080 //// +079 //// 142080 080 057 006 01
230730 2120N 10753W 6966 03080 //// +080 //// 143077 079 055 005 01
230800 2122N 10752W 6966 03086 //// +090 //// 143075 076 054 003 01
230830 2123N 10750W 6966 03089 //// +077 //// 144074 075 053 005 01
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#68 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:20 pm

Through 6:58pm EDT:

Image
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#69 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:23 pm

Last pass...

Highest Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 86 knots (~ 99.0 mph)
Highest Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 87 knots (~ 100.1 mph)
Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 69 knots (~ 79.4 mph)

Through 7:18pm EDT:

Image
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:24 pm

Code: Select all

000
URPN12 KNHC 052229
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP152016
A. 05/22:01:10Z
B. 20 deg 31 min N
  108 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2976 m
D. 64 kt
E. 120 deg 32 nm
F. 190 deg 70 kt
G. 123 deg 44 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 9 C / 3054 m
J. 14 C / 3048 m
K. NA / NA
L. SPIRAL BAND
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF309 0115E NEWTON             OB 11
MAX FL WIND 74 KT 064 / 82 NM 20:27:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 290 / 5 KT
TWO SPIRAL BANDS ENTERING NW, THE 40NM DIAMETER IS NEAR WHERE THE BANDS CONVERGE
OTHERWISE UP TO 70NM OF THE EYE IS RAIN FREE
;
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:28 pm

000
URPN15 KNHC 052318
AF309 0115E NEWTON HDOB 43 20160905
230900 2124N 10749W 6965 03094 //// +078 //// 144072 073 051 006 01
230930 2126N 10748W 6963 03097 //// +084 //// 144071 071 051 004 01
231000 2127N 10746W 6964 03100 //// +080 //// 144069 070 050 003 01
231030 2128N 10745W 6966 03100 //// +091 //// 145069 070 048 003 01
231100 2129N 10743W 6957 03111 //// +073 //// 150063 067 050 010 05
231130 2131N 10742W 6974 03095 //// +069 //// 144064 067 054 013 01
231200 2132N 10741W 6963 03107 //// +062 //// 145060 065 052 016 05
231230 2133N 10739W 6958 03116 //// +068 //// 143060 063 053 003 01
231300 2135N 10738W 6966 03108 //// +092 //// 144063 064 051 001 01
231330 2136N 10736W 6965 03112 //// +095 //// 144063 064 050 001 01
231400 2137N 10735W 6967 03112 //// +096 //// 145063 063 052 005 01
231430 2138N 10734W 6965 03116 //// +095 //// 147061 063 052 006 01
231500 2140N 10732W 6968 03118 //// +088 //// 147059 061 050 006 01
231530 2141N 10731W 6958 03127 //// +079 //// 146060 062 051 003 01
231600 2142N 10729W 6964 03120 //// +081 //// 147060 060 052 004 01
231630 2144N 10728W 6965 03123 //// +094 //// 147061 061 052 002 01
231700 2145N 10726W 6965 03123 //// +095 //// 149061 062 056 003 01
231730 2146N 10725W 6963 03128 //// +084 //// 150061 062 058 002 01
231800 2148N 10724W 6969 03122 //// +092 //// 147061 062 056 000 01
231830 2149N 10722W 6963 03129 //// +096 //// 146063 063 054 000 05
$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#72 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:45 pm

Code: Select all

URPN12 KNHC 052339
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP152016
A. 05/22:54:30Z
B. 20 deg 46 min N
  108 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2975 m
D. 51 kt
E. 255 deg 23 nm
F. 356 deg 39 kt
G. 260 deg 48 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 12 C / 3053 m
J. 13 C / 3053 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C70
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0115E NEWTON             OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT 046 / 39 NM 23:05:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 085 / 8 KT
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 044 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH REMNANT OF PREVIOUS FEEDERBAND NEAR CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 69KTS AT 046 DEG 24 NM FROM CNTR AT 23:01:00Z
SHORT INBOUND LEG DID NOT SAMPLE ENVIR TEMP OUTSIDE THE EYE, 10C SEEN OUTBOUND
;

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#73 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:45 pm

Mission over.

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Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Recon

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:45 pm

000
URPN12 KNHC 052339
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP152016
A. 05/22:54:30Z
B. 20 deg 46 min N
108 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2975 m
D. 51 kt
E. 255 deg 23 nm
F. 356 deg 39 kt
G. 260 deg 48 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 12 C / 3053 m
J. 13 C / 3053 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C70
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0115E NEWTON OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT 046 / 39 NM 23:05:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 085 / 8 KT
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 044 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH REMNANT OF PREVIOUS FEEDERBAND NEAR CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 69KTS AT 046 DEG 24 NM FROM CNTR AT 23:01:00Z
SHORT INBOUND LEG DID NOT SAMPLE ENVIR TEMP OUTSIDE THE EYE, 10C SEEN OUTBOUND
;
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:45 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 052357
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
600 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

...NEWTON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 108.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* North of San Evaristo to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Puerto Libertad

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Evaristo to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 108.6 West. Newton is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula early Tuesday morning,
move over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula late
Tuesday, and move into northwestern Mexico on early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected before landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, winds are expected to
reach tropical storm strength late tonight, with hurricane
conditions expected by early Tuesday morning. These conditions
will spread northward over the Baja California peninsula through
Tuesday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions occurring
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes should end early tonight.
Farther northward, tropical storm conditions are expected over
northwestern Mexico within the warning area beginning Tuesday
morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward
throughout the day.

RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Sonora as well as much of the
state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches through Tuesday night. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
expected across portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New
Mexico from late Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of
up to 3 inches possible. These rains could result in dangerous
flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside
on Wednesday. Swells should increase across the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:46 pm

06/0000 UTC 20.8N 108.6W T4.0/4.0 NEWTON -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#77 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:52 pm

the way this is intensifying, Odile 2.0 may be the end result
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:57 pm

Image

T4.5
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:46 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2016 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 20:56:21 N Lon : 108:48:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 977.9mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.3 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : -20.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE
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kala
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#80 Postby kala » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:53 pm

Image
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