EPAC: NEWTON - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#81 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:08 pm

Cat 2 at landfall I would say is likely, and Cat 3 is not out of the question.

Also could it miss Cabo right and just go up the Gulf of California? That would allow it to at least hold its intensity to a much higher latitude as well.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#82 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:12 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Cat 2 at landfall I would say is likely, and Cat 3 is not out of the question.

Also could it miss Cabo right and just go up the Gulf of California? That would allow it to at least hold its intensity to a much higher latitude as well.


Not if it continues at its present course.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#83 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:16 pm

To say we still have work to do on intensity forecasts is an understatement. Lester was one, Newton is another. Even worse this one has a landfall.



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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:19 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060255
TCDEP5

HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Newton has continued to quickly strengthen this evening, with a
ragged eye occasionally becoming apparent in infrared satellite
pictures. The eye was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass and the earlier aircraft data. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft reported a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 87 kt
around 2300 UTC, which supported the 75 kt intensity on the
intermediate public advisory. Given the increase in organization
since that time, the initial wind speed has been increased to 80 kt
for this advisory. Newton is forecast to remain in a very low shear
environment and over warm water during the next 12 hours, which
should lead to continued intensification before the center reaches
the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday
morning. Weakening is expected while system moves over the
the Baja California peninsula, but given the fast forward speed,
Newton could remain at or near hurricane strength until final
landfall in mainland Mexico in about 36 hours.

Newton is moving northwestward or 325/14 kt. The hurricane will be
moving around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern
United States. This should cause a north-northwestward to
northward motion that will bring the hurricane into northwestern
Mexico in about 36 hours. The track guidance is very tightly
packed, and the NHC track is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

The wind radii were expanded outward based on data from the earlier
aircraft mission. The updated track and intensity forecast
required the government of Mexico to issue new warnings and watches
for Baja California and mainland Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#85 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:17 am

Is there going to be more recon before landfall? It's really screaming towards Baja, I fear that people there simply didn't have enough time to prepare.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#86 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:17 am

There is a flight scheduled, though I don't know if it will still fly. Scheduled departure was 5am EDT.

Code: Select all

    1. TROPICAL STORM NEWTON
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 78
       A. 06/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0215E NEWTON
       C. 06/0900Z
       D. 22.7N 109.9W
       E. 06/1130Z TO 06/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:37 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060855
TCDEP5

HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

Newton's intensity appears to have leveled off based on little
change in the ragged 45-nmi diameter mid- to upper-level eye noted
in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Now that the eye
is interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California
Sur, gradual weakening should begin. However, since Newton's wind
field is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower
weakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes a second landfall along the northwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF
models show Newton losing no strength at all before the next
landfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico,
Newton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the
high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above
the intensity consensus model IVCN, close to a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM models.

Newton is now moving north-northwestward or 335/15 kt based on
microwave satellite fixes. The center of the large eye of Newton is
currently moving over or very near Cabo San Lucas, with most of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula now inside the eye.
The hurricane is forecast to move steadily around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge currently located over the
south-central United States and northwestern Mexico. This stable
steering pattern will result in Newton turning northward later
today, and then turning toward the north-northeast or northeast
tonight and on Wednesday, bringing the center of the hurricane near
the northwestern coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. The NHC track
guidance remains tightly packed, and the new official track forecast
is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
lies near the GFS-ECMWF model solutions.

Since Newton is forecast to remain a hurricane until the second
landfall occurs, the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane
warning for a portion of mainland Mexico. Although Newton is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern
United States by 48 hours, deep moisture ahead of the cyclone will
result in heavy rains that can produce flash flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.8N 109.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS
12H 06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#88 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:45 am

Code: Select all

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 061143
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
600 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

...EYE OF NEWTON OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...NEWTON POUNDING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 110.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to Mulege, including Cabo San Lucas
* Guaymas to Bahia Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* North of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mazatlan to Guaymas
* Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Newton was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 110.4 West. Newton is moving
toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward north is
expected by tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Newton
will continue to pass over Baja California Sur early today and
emerge in the Gulf of California this afternoon. The center of
Newton is forecast to reach northwestern Mexico early Wednesday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24
hours. However, Newton is still expected to be a hurricane when it
makes a second landfall along the northwestern coast of mainland
Mexico early Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).  A Mexican automated station located at San Lucas
reported maximum sustained winds of 78 mph (125 km/h) with gusts to
116 mph (187 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
A Storm Chaser in downtown Cabo San Lucas reported a pressure of 984
mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
much of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.
These hazardous wind conditions will spread northward through this
morning within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and
property should have been completed.

For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within
the Hurricane Warning area by early Wednesday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico within the
warning area beginning this morning, and these conditions will
gradually spread northward throughout the day and into tonight.

RAINFALL:  Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 5
to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Sonora, western
Nayarit, and Jalisco, and a small part of Baja California Norte
through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are
possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and
locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southwestern
New Mexico through Thursday.  In all of these locations, heavy rain
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially
in mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall on both the southern Baja California peninsula
and mainland Mexico.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through today, but begin to subside on
Wednesday.  Large swells are occurring along the coast of Baja
California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of
California today and Wednesday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#89 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:55 am

Image'
Image
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#90 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:56 am

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#91 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:17 am

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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#92 Postby kala » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:47 pm

Image

NHC forecasting a tropical storm in Arizona... :D

If there's one way to get that to happen, it's Newton being a hurricane at landfall in Sonora.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#93 Postby kala » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:47 pm

Image

Models, don't fail me now.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#94 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:02 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 062044
TCDEP5

HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

The cloud pattern of Newton has continued to decay since the last
advisory, with a continued warming of the cloud tops near the
center. There has been no data close enough to the center to help
determine the intensity, so based on a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB and the observed decay the intensity is reduced to a
possibly generous 65 kt.

The initial motion is 345/16. Newton is being steered around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the lower Mississippi
Valley of the United States. It should turn northward later
tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a
mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. The
northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland.
The new forecast track is again similar to, but slightly faster
than, the previous track and lies near the multi-model consensus.

Little change in strength is expected as the center of Newton
crosses portions of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California
during the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to be a
hurricane at landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico. Weakening
is expected after landfall, and the circulation of Newton is
expected to dissipate over Arizona and New Mexico between 36-48
hours. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one,
and it indicates that Newton could reach southeastern Arizona
before weakening below tropical-storm strength.

Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend
well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large
portion of Baja California Sur, northwestern Mexico, and
southeastern Arizona during the next day or so. Moisture associated
with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and
localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico
Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 07/0600Z 28.2N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 07/1800Z 31.5N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 34.2N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#95 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:09 pm

significant flooding is a possibility.

Could be the 6th storm to directly affect the USA this year
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#96 Postby bob rulz » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:49 am

Wish some of that moisture could be drawn up this direction (northern Utah)...

Been a bone dry summer up here, even by our already dry standards.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Hurricane

#97 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:27 am

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center
has made landfall in mainland Mexico a short distance southeast
of Bahia Kino. The overall cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat,
with an erosion of deep convection over the northwestern quadrant of
the circulation, and subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimates are below hurricane strength. Therefore the system has
been downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm. With the center moving
inland, rapid weakening will occur, however there is a possibility
that Newton could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
extreme southeastern Arizona later today. The circulation is
expected to dissipate on Thursday.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/15 kt. The latest NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one. Newton should
gradually curve to the northeast as it moves between the western
periphery of a mid-level high and a broad trough to the north. The
official forecast follows the multi-model consensus.

The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will
be spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico
over the next day or so. These rains could cause flooding and mud
slides. Consult statements from you local weather offices for
possible warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 28.7N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 31.4N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/0600Z 33.5N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby Darvince » Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:17 am

It IS RAINING FROM TROPICAL STORM NEWTON!!!! :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:06 pm

Newton appears to have been decapitated by the mountains of NW Mexico. The mid-level circulation raced well out ahead of any LLC and is now in SE Arizona. Any surface circulation center has yet to move out of Mexico, given the ESE winds around 15 kts near the border with Mexico. Looks like a remnant low now. "Heavy" rainfall threat for the desert, though. 1-3" of rain doesn't sound much to, say, the Gulf Coast, but that could cause a lot of problems in a city like Tucson or Phoenix. Heaviest rain should miss Phoenix, though.
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Re: EPAC: NEWTON - Tropical Storm

#100 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Newton appears to have been decapitated by the mountains of NW Mexico. The mid-level circulation raced well out ahead of any LLC and is now in SE Arizona. Any surface circulation center has yet to move out of Mexico, given the ESE winds around 15 kts near the border with Mexico. Looks like a remnant low now. "Heavy" rainfall threat for the desert, though. 1-3" of rain doesn't sound much to, say, the Gulf Coast, but that could cause a lot of problems in a city like Tucson or Phoenix. Heaviest rain should miss Phoenix, though.


Indeed, that is a lot for us. We got that much from Norbert and I will never forget the flooding we had downtown and in our neighborhood park (which also functions as a retention basin).

As for today, it has been cloudy with occasional light rain, but nothing heavy. The air is quite humid though! Really hoping Tucson and most likely points east of there don't get it too bad with heavy rain.

-Andrew92
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