WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:34 pm

At 1800 UTC, 06 September 2016, INVEST (WP96) was located in the Northwest Pacific basin at 29.3°N and 129.4°E. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 14 kt at a bearing of 45 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:23 pm

Image

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.2N 129.7E TO 33.8N 137.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.3N 130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.3N 126.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY
230NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, WEAK AND PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
IS FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN-SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH BUT IS
NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC AT THIS TIME. RECENT MICROWAVE
AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE JAPANESE ISLANDS IN THE AREA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF THE
LLCC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 2210Z WINDSAT PASS
CONFIRMED THE BROAD AND WEAK NATURE OF THE LLCC AND INDICATED A
SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF
OKINAWA NORTHWARD TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN HONSHU, ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH BOTH
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 200MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, WHICH ARE HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST (29 TO 30C), GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDE A SHORT
WINDOW OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, WITH
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT NEARS THE KANTO
PLAIN REGION. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES OVER THE
SYSTEM, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HINDERED WITH
A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:58 am

TPPN10 PGTW 071009

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (N OF KADENA)

B. 07/0930Z

C. 31.26N

D. 133.60E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

DREW
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:04 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby kala » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:55 pm

Image

nice puff of convection as JMA declares it extratropical
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:55 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:58 pm

96W INVEST 160907 1800 31.1N 137.5E WPAC 20 1005
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#28 Postby kala » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:42 pm

Is it dead though? It's looking better than it ever has.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:48 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 072129

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (S OF JAPAN)

B. 07/2100Z

C. 32.53N

D. 138.21E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:49 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 072116
TCSWNP

A. MALOU (96W)

B. 07/2030Z

C. 31.1N

D. 137.8E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND LLCC THAT IS LOCATED UNDER THE COLD OVERCAST THAT IS
LARGER THAN 1.5 DEGREES. DT = 1.5 AND THE MET AND PT = 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER FIX POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:15 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 29.3N
130.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL, ELONGATED, AND HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES
INCLUDING 072144Z CORIOLIS AND 072150Z AMSUB DEPICT THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF HIGH
(GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERIC MODELS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:Image

Was it ever alive to begin with is my question.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:25 am

TXPQ29 KNES 080900
TCSWNP

A. MALOU (96W)

B. 08/0830Z

C. 33.9N

D. 140.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO CONVECTION MORE
THAN 1.25 DG FROM LOW LEVEL CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:31 am

JMA by this time had a 60 knot system. :lol:

JMA upgrades every single area of LPA so quickly and for stronger storms, I feel blind sometimes and try to look for answers as there is no reasoning/data/discussion to back up what they are seeing. It's just a track and intensity forecast.
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Re: WPAC: MALOU - Post-Tropical Storm

#35 Postby kala » Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:42 pm

:uarrow: I wish they did discussions.

To be fair, although I didn't watch the models very closely, around the time Malou formed GFS was predicting a quickly intensifying TS approaching TY strength.
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