WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:13 am

98WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-120N-1455E.
Looks like this would be the next system to be named in the basin.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:59 pm

Sneaky little system that came out of nowhere. Now EURO has another typhoon for Japan...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:25 am

Image

Wow that was fast.

WTPN21 PGTW 080530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 143.4E TO 17.5N 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 072121Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT
DEFINED CENTER. A 072340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 5-10 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TUTT CELL
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST IS HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM
WITH MOISTURE NOW EXPANDING IN THAT DIRECTION. STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THEN NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090530Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:25 am

TPPN11 PGTW 080643

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (W OF GUAM)

B. 08/0600Z

C. 14.07N

D. 142.73E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 1.5. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/0226Z 13.50N 142.77E GPMI


HART
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:51 am

939 mb peak and skirts Japan...

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:31 am

A couple of days ago, I stated in my blog that I did not expect any tropical cyclone formation across the basin outside the South China Sea. The day after, guidance starts to develop this. Figures... :P

I'm not too terribly surprised though. I saw the disturbance when I was composing the blog but decided not to mention it, partially due to time constraints. Almost regardless of the conditions, you're going to see at least some development across the WPac in September.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:18 am

Good vorticity is apparent from PGUA.

Image

For those wondering, the next name on the list is "Meranti."
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:40 am

GFS doesn't develop this but instead makes develops the other Invest 90W.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:38 am

ASCAT has the presumed center just on the edge of this morning's pass. It's hard to tell definitively from the partial pass, but 98W might be close to something worthy of being classified as a Tropical Depression.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:57 pm

16W SIXTEEN 160908 1200 13.8N 142.5E WPAC 20 1009

Should be TD 16-W shortly.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:58 pm

NRL is now listing it as 16W. Looks like we're seeing an upgrade for 18Z!
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 16W

#12 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:57 pm

Pretty aggressive first prog from JTWC.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:40 pm

Wow...Cat 1 to high end 3? :eek:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:40 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158
NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION
SLOWLY ORGANIZING AROUND A WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON REFLECTIVITY
AND VELOCITY LOOPS FROM THE NWS GUAM RADAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH OF TWO RIDGE AXES IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THESE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS GREATER THAN 28C), ARE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE. THE
CYCLONE IS VERY SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHALLOW LAYER OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM. .
B. TD 16W WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR
TERM. AFTER TAU 36 AND AFTER THE SYSTEM REACHES TS INTENSITY, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING
AND ACCELERATE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE SLOW DUE TO THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT CELL. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 55 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND INITIALLY DRIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS
(20-25 KNOTS), ONCE AGAIN TEMPERING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DESPITE
THE DIMINISHED EFFECT OF THE TUTT CELL. HOWEVER, NEAR TAU 96, TD 16W
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS VWS RELAXES, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INCREASES, AND THE CYCLONE DRIFTS INTO EVEN WARMER SSTS
(GREATER THAN 30C). THE SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 110
KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE INITIAL SET OF DYNAMIC AIDS ARE SPREAD
AND FAN OUT AT APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES BUT MEMBERS ARE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UP TO THE END OF FORECAST. IN
VIEW OF THE SLOW INITIAL STORM MOTION AND THE VARIABILITY OF AN
INITIAL FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC WARNING TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:44 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:53 am

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS LOOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE. A GROUPING
OF RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES PROVIDES BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE 0900Z
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT POOR
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LEADING TO THE ERRATIC MOTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (05-10
KNOTS), HOWEVER, THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE STR REBUILDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, TD 16W WILL
RETURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS STEERING MECHANISM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW IN THE SHORT TERM, AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
MOVES AWAY FROM THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE TUTT CELL, AFTER WHICH,
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SOLUTION ONCE THE STEERING
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES, WITH THE GFS SERVING AS A NOTABLE OUTLIER GIVEN
THAT MODEL NEVER DEVELOPS BEYOND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SURFACE FIELDS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND TAU 72, VWS AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SSTS WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL AID SPREAD IS
HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION UNCERTAINTY
AND LONG TERM MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
WARNING TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:26 am

Quite a difference in the models...NAVGEM recurves this east of Taiwan and into Japan while CMC locks on Taiwan.

EURO a bit weaker in intensity...944mb...but follows the same thinking of NAVGEM for track.

GFS into Kyushu...971 mb...
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:36 am

JMA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 142E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:54 am

Image

Even more aggressive..

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION BUILDING JUST SOUTH
OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 091301Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH INTO A
DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 091121Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST; HOWEVER,
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE BUILDING
STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VWS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STR POSITIONED
OVER CHINA WILL TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48,
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN, DECREASING THE VWS ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 16W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND BY TAU 120, WILL REACH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 72, IMPROVED VWS AND OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SSTS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH AN 125NM SPREAD AT TAU
120. HWRF CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY OUTLIER OF THE GROUP WITH A TRACK
INTO TAIWAN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS (CONW) THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN RIGHT OF CONW FAVORING ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW A RECURVE SCENARIO. DUE TO IMPROVING
MODEL TRACKERS WITH A SMALL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 16W - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:08 am

The Kamchatka Peninsula is certainly lovely these days.

Image

#MoveTheFloaterWindowPleaseJMA
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