WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

I think the 160 knots estimate is now justified... just now, given the current intensification trend.

[NotoSans]

Agree. Meranti looks much more symmetrical now. Probably a high end T7.5. Needs a banding feature to obtain a 8.0 though.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Agree. Meranti looks much more symmetrical now. Probably a high end T7.5. Needs a banding feature to obtain a 8.0 though.

SAB and JTWC have lately used a CDG ring with other systems, so in theory a WMG eye embedded in CDG would yield T7.0. And SAB had basically discouraged the use of BF's since 2007.

[SouthDadeFish]

While still an amazingly powerful typhoon, there are signs that a secondary eyewall is forming:



This may cause a temporary weakening cycle to begin within the next 24-36 hours. I must note the timing of eyewall replacement cycles are not well forecast.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Back after a loooooong break.

This typhoon is eerily similar to Typhoon Viper in some Discovery Channel documentary I saw in YouTube Attains 160 kt strength and goes through the Bashi Channel. The documentary shows it maintain that strength hitting Hong Kong. I hope it won't follow what Viper did, even if it were fictional---it's freaking me out.

[euro6208]

^Not quite... Haiyan in 2013 had the dark gray completely encircling the eye (we only have the light gray here). Haiyan had estimates >T8.0 at times.

Really? how about Joaquin at Cat 4 peak?

Looks ain't everything.

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09131019
SATCON: MSLP = 900 hPa MSW = 172 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 162.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 160 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.6 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 916 hPa 143 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP131030
CIMSS AMSU: 892 hPa 179 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09130950
SSMIS: 901 hPa 158 knots Date: 09131019
CIRA AMSU: 1002 hPa 38 knots Date: 09110228

Wow continuing to increase...up to 180 knots!

[euro6208]

I wonder what the 12z BT will show. Last 2 warnings had it at 160 knots and since then it has continued to organize.

AMSU at 180 knots.

Patricia got lucky it had recon.

[1900hurricane]

Well, at least AMSU/SATCON is consistent in really loving this thing. I'm actually getting Zeb '98 vibes with it at the moment.

[Macrocane]

What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

[NotoSans]

JMA went with CI8.0 at 12Z. Expect them to go with lower than 900 hPa.

[StormChaser75]

Amazing....




http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_16W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Beat Haiyan's record in terms of pressure, and just 5 hPa (mbar) shy of Megi. Astonishing.

TY 1614 (Meranti)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 13 September 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 13 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°25' (20.4°)
E122°55' (122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 890 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (120 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (170 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/775694332145741824

[kala]

For some reason this isn't what I was expecting to wake up to.

[galaxy401]

:eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

Where did you get that? Ian is barely discussed at all.

[1900hurricane]

:eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

Where did you get that? Ian is barely discussed at all.

Link: https://youtu.be/I38KW5mzRRU

[1900hurricane]

I know I've said this before, but we're probably just past peak intensity now. The cold medium greys on BD are eroding again, and microwave/radar is clear in showing an outer eyewall organizing for sure now.

[galaxy401]

^ I didn't meant that though it definitely is cool to see recon there again. I was just wondering where Macrocane got the information of Ian being more discussed then this storm.

Meranti looks very beautiful but dangerous right now...

[Macrocane]

:eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

Where did you get that? Ian is barely discussed at all.

Indeed, I noticed that after my post