WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#161 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:44 am

I think the 160 knots estimate is now justified... just now, given the current intensification trend.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#162 Postby NotoSans » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:11 am

:uarrow: Agree. Meranti looks much more symmetrical now. Probably a high end T7.5. Needs a banding feature to obtain a 8.0 though.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#163 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:27 am

NotoSans wrote::uarrow: Agree. Meranti looks much more symmetrical now. Probably a high end T7.5. Needs a banding feature to obtain a 8.0 though.


SAB and JTWC have lately used a CDG ring with other systems, so in theory a WMG eye embedded in CDG would yield T7.0. And SAB had basically discouraged the use of BF's since 2007.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#164 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:40 am

While still an amazingly powerful typhoon, there are signs that a secondary eyewall is forming:

Image

This may cause a temporary weakening cycle to begin within the next 24-36 hours. I must note the timing of eyewall replacement cycles are not well forecast.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#165 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:42 am

Back after a loooooong break. :lol:

This typhoon is eerily similar to Typhoon Viper in some Discovery Channel documentary I saw in YouTube Attains 160 kt strength and goes through the Bashi Channel. The documentary shows it maintain that strength hitting Hong Kong. :eek: I hope it won't follow what Viper did, even if it were fictional---it's freaking me out.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#166 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:43 am

Image
Image


wxmann_91 wrote:^Not quite... Haiyan in 2013 had the dark gray completely encircling the eye (we only have the light gray here). Haiyan had estimates >T8.0 at times.


Really? how about Joaquin at Cat 4 peak?

Looks ain't everything.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#167 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:47 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09131019
SATCON: MSLP = 900 hPa MSW = 172 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 162.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 160 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.6 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 916 hPa 143 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP131030
CIMSS AMSU: 892 hPa 179 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09130950
SSMIS: 901 hPa 158 knots Date: 09131019
CIRA AMSU: 1002 hPa 38 knots Date: 09110228

Wow continuing to increase...up to 180 knots!
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#168 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:06 am

I wonder what the 12z BT will show. Last 2 warnings had it at 160 knots and since then it has continued to organize.

AMSU at 180 knots.

Patricia got lucky it had recon.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#169 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:21 am

Well, at least AMSU/SATCON is consistent in really loving this thing. I'm actually getting Zeb '98 vibes with it at the moment.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#170 Postby Macrocane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:22 am

:eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti :lol: . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#171 Postby NotoSans » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:42 am

JMA went with CI8.0 at 12Z. Expect them to go with lower than 900 hPa.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#172 Postby StormChaser75 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:59 am

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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#173 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:41 am

Beat Haiyan's record in terms of pressure, and just 5 hPa (mbar) shy of Megi. Astonishing. :eek:

TY 1614 (Meranti)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 13 September 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 13 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°25' (20.4°)
E122°55' (122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 890 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (120 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (170 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 440 km (240 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#174 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:22 am

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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#175 Postby kala » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:24 am

For some reason this isn't what I was expecting to wake up to.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#176 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:48 am

Macrocane wrote::eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti :lol: . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

Where did you get that? Ian is barely discussed at all.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#177 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:59 am

galaxy401 wrote:
Macrocane wrote::eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti :lol: . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

Where did you get that? Ian is barely discussed at all.



Link: https://youtu.be/I38KW5mzRRU
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#178 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:01 am

I know I've said this before, but we're probably just past peak intensity now. The cold medium greys on BD are eroding again, and microwave/radar is clear in showing an outer eyewall organizing for sure now.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#179 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:08 am

^ I didn't meant that though it definitely is cool to see recon there again. I was just wondering where Macrocane got the information of Ian being more discussed then this storm.

Meranti looks very beautiful but dangerous right now...
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#180 Postby Macrocane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:14 am

galaxy401 wrote:
Macrocane wrote::eek: What a beautiful monster, yet Ian is still more discussed than Meranti :lol: . I really wish we had recon in that basin (actually in all basins), I've read somewhere that recon is going to start again on 2018.

Where did you get that? Ian is barely discussed at all.


Indeed, I noticed that after my post :oops: :lol:
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