WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#241 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2016 7:53 am

12Z intensity estimate is coming in with 125 kt, which is likely still too high. Interaction with Taiwan is a plenty good reason to break constraints for weakening.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#242 Postby shah83 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:28 am

I think, though, that we're past the time for complaining about strength estimates. I remember in 2005, that Katrina's last hours were also had overestimated strength, but a weakening category three storm is quite a different thing from Frances/Jeanne than it is for Katrina.

This is likely the strongest storm ever recorded in the Taiwan Straits.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#243 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:37 am

AMSU and ADT are between 100 and 105 kt. That's probably about where I would set the 12Z intensity or thereabouts. I do think Meranti is not weakening as quickly now, which could still slate coastal China for a category 3 landfall.

The Himawari-8 floater window has switched over to Malakas.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#244 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:25 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
COLLAPSED AND UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN
CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.9 TO T6.5.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE
SPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION, AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
CHINA NEAR SHANTOU. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A
SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE
TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND RAPID DISSIPATION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#245 Postby Dave C » Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:55 pm

Just landfalling China coast, has a nice little signature on sat. maybe frictional affects at landfall caused a little last minute intensification.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#246 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:17 pm

Made landfall as a 90 knots Cat 2 directly into the heart of Xiamen. This region of China is so populated. Over +3 million in Xiamen, over +5 million metro and over +12 million nearby, Quanzhou and Zhangzhou, likely getting some action too...

The entire province where these cities are located, Fujian, is under it's massive canopy... +37.7 million. :eek: Thank God it weakened from it's peak.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#247 Postby NotoSans » Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:30 pm

Kinmen, an island about 2 km east of Xiamen city, recorded a minimum sea level pressure of 950 hPa about 20 minutes before landfall. The central pressure was probably near 945 hPa at the time of landfall. Probably one of the strongest typhoon ever to hit the Fujian province.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#248 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:15 pm

Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#249 Postby Windspeed » Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:34 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.

Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#250 Postby qscdefb » Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:11 am

Windspeed wrote:
Cunxi Huang wrote:Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.

Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.


2-minute sustained winds of ~50m/s have been observed, and land observations prior to landfall shows that Meranti had a tight structure and an intact inner core.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#251 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:17 am

qscdefb wrote:
Windspeed wrote:
Cunxi Huang wrote:Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.

Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.


2-minute sustained winds of ~50m/s have been observed, and land observations prior to landfall shows that Meranti had a tight structure and an intact inner core.


Are you in Xiamen?
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#252 Postby shah83 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:58 pm

Seems to have hit as hard as Usagi or Utor and the like, maybe harder... Lots of water images, big time surge?

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#253 Postby Cunxi Huang » Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:13 pm

shah83 wrote:Seems to have hit as hard as Usagi or Utor and the like, maybe harder... Lots of water images, big time surge?

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f

wait a second...are you in China tybbs? i just wonder cause no one here would post a Weixin link! 8-)
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#254 Postby shah83 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:10 am

got this off of reddit.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#255 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:30 am

shah83 wrote:Seems to have hit as hard as Usagi or Utor and the like, maybe harder... Lots of water images, big time surge?

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f


Xiamen is pretty storm surge prone, being at the head of a Bay and given that the waters in the Taiwan Strait are shallow.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon

#256 Postby qscdefb » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:47 am

euro6208 wrote:
qscdefb wrote:
Windspeed wrote:Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.


2-minute sustained winds of ~50m/s have been observed, and land observations prior to landfall shows that Meranti had a tight structure and an intact inner core.


Are you in Xiamen?


No, but I could see the data that's posted on the Chinese forum
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#257 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:23 pm

A guy drove around in Xiamen at 2 am that day and recorded this super precious video. Take a look.
http://www.meipai.com/media/584058958
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#258 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:59 pm

According to the governor and citizens of Batanes, Meranti was the most powerful typhoon to ever impact their area.
As per PDRRMC, there is zero casualty as of this time though there are two fishermen missing.

The Ivatans are the most typhoon prepared citizens of RP by the way.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#259 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:03 am

JTWC 2016 Best Tracks are now out... https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/j ... rn-pacific

170kts (315kph) max 1-min sustained winds for STY Meranti :eek:

Image
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#260 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:14 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:JTWC 2016 Best Tracks are now out... https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/j ... rn-pacific

170kts (315kph) max 1-min sustained winds for STY Meranti :eek:



Another typhoon ands tied with Haiyan? :lol:

Without no recon, the limit for the world's most powerful basin's TC's is 165 to 175 knots. Anything above will most likely be tossed out.
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