WPAC: 17W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: 17W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:32 am

99W INVEST 160907 0600 21.5N 156.8E WPAC 15 NA
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:49 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:55 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.8N 152.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 152.6E, APPROXIMATELY
600 NM EAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 090011Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN OPEN
WAVE WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY WEAK WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. A 090136Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE
SUBSIDENT REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THEN NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SHORT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO
THE DISORGANIZED LLCC AND MODERATE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:56 am

TXPQ22 KNES 090304
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 09/0230Z

C. 25.7N

D. 152.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSE
CLOUD LINES, PROXIMITY LESS THAN 1.25 DG FROM CONVECTION, SMALL
SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/0009Z 25.6N 152.8E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:32 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.8N 152.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY
660NM NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHWEST, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
NORTH-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY
SHORT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED
LLCC AND MODERATE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:21 am

TXPQ27 KNES 100909
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 33.1N

D. 149.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:23 am

At least a depression maybe a TS. One thing though it looks way better organized than some atlantic storms...Oh yeah, looks don't matter...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:59 am

I hadn't been paying mind to this system much. Sneaky. Unfortunately, the best way to tell if it deserves classification or not, ASCAT, missed it this morning.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#9 Postby NotoSans » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:54 pm

I have no idea why JMA classified it as an extra-tropical low in their weather map analysis.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:08 pm

TCFA posted.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:42 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 33.8N 150.2E TO 39.1N 159.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
102200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N
151.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 32.8N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY
585 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 102037Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH
QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH NO EVIDENCE OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE WARM (27 TO 28C) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE
ETT NEAR TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:43 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 110037

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SE OF MISAWA)

B. 11/0000Z

C. 35.69N

D. 152.53E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2037Z 35.07N 151.48E SSMS
10/2048Z 35.08N 151.65E WIND


MARTINEZ


TXPQ27 KNES 102152
TCSWNP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 10/2030Z

C. 35.3N

D. 151.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED
BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH A CENTER NEAR A SMALL COLD
OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET
AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LLCC
LOCATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE COLD OVERCAST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MICHAEL
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:28 pm

JTWC has now classified it as Tropical Depression 17W.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:38 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
607 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 102037Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT
WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. A 102327Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 (25 KNOTS) TO T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
AND THE ASCAT DATA. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH NO EVIDENCE
OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. SST VALUES ARE WARM (27 TO 28C) AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE. TD 17W IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK POLEWARD OF THE
STR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND WILL TURN EASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TD 17W IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TD 17W
IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 17W - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:08 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 781 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS RATHER STEADY STATE. A 111220Z METOP-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DRY AIR
SURROUNDS THE SYSTEM AS IT IS NOW FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, IT
HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE STRUCTURE BECAUSE IT IS
STILL REMOVED FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 30 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH RECENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN STEADY STATE, TD 17W IS FORECAST TO SOON
INTERACT WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTHWEST, AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, COMPLETING
THE PROCESS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD 17W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE FORECAST
TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 17W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:39 am

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 38.1N 160.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 38.1N 160.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 40.3N 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 41.4N 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 162.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
896 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY DECAYING
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. A 111650Z AMSU 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION. TD 17W IS ACCELERATING WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THUS BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TD 16W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS
IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER
TO TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 17W - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:53 pm

Maybe another missed TS. The atlantic with ugly Ian is less organized than this...
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Re: WPAC: 17W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby kala » Mon Sep 12, 2016 3:43 pm

A late note here: At 01z yesterday this thing had an eye and a very tight core. It was probably approaching severe tropical storm strength briefly. The feature hadn't formed by 20z and was mostly gone by 05z

Image
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