ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:47 am

AL, 93, 2016090712, , BEST, 0, 150N, 515W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 93, 2016090718, , BEST, 0, 157N, 532W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 93, 2016090800, , BEST, 0, 163N, 549W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 93, 2016090806, , BEST, 0, 167N, 560W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 93, 2016090812, , BEST, 0, 170N, 570W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread at Talking Tropics from that was the topic for this area of Interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:48 am

:eek: waouw what a surprise :eek: just 400km east of Antigua.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:53 am

Okayyyyyy...did anybody see this coming?
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:56 am

Image
And this one is at 10%-20%. By the way, it's the one to the west...
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:58 am

Um this looks like at least a TD on visible.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:01 am

StormTracker wrote:Okayyyyyy...did anybody see this coming?

We were speaking about this one on this previous thread if you've missed some episodes :) viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284
Since yesterday a strong ball of convection has formed quickly and tstorms were on an increase this morning.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:02 am

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:03 am

Gustywind wrote:
StormTracker wrote:Okayyyyyy...did anybody see this coming?

We were speaking about this one on this previous thread if you've missed some episodes :) viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284
Since yesterday a strong ball of convection has formed quickly and tstorms were on an increase this morning.

Ok, I'll check it out. Thanks! :D
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:08 am

Okay Gusty, so this is ex-pouch-32L right?
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:10 am

StormTracker wrote:Okay Gusty, so this is ex-pouch-32L right?

It seems to me i tkink :D
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:11 am

StormTracker wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
StormTracker wrote:Okayyyyyy...did anybody see this coming?

We were speaking about this one on this previous thread if you've missed some episodes :) viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284
Since yesterday a strong ball of convection has formed quickly and tstorms were on an increase this morning.

Ok, I'll check it out. Thanks! :D


:wink: :)you're welcomed my friend. See how things can change quickly on the deep tropics. While everybody was focus on the twave in Central Atlantic with higher % of becoming something like an Invest sooner maybe, this one is already an Invest. So we have to wait and see what could happens wit this one especially for those who live in the Leewards like me because of we have recently experienced strong showers with 92L Monday. We will see.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:21 am

Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby CourierPR » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:24 am

Yesterday, Meteorologist Joe Bastardi gave this, what he termed, a citizen's x as an invest. He says it has to be watched in his public video at weather bell.com.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:24 am

Gustywind wrote:Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Is that a feeder band attempt to form on the NE side of the system?
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:24 am

Gustywind wrote:Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html


OMG, it's got an eye! :lol:
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:25 am

Gustywind wrote:Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Is that an "eye I see? Just kidding! Yep definitely a potent swirl. If it starts pulling & wrapping some convection, it could get going sooner than most think.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby StormTracker » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:26 am

SoupBone wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html


OMG, it's got an eye! :lol:

SoupBone you beat me to it! :D
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:43 am

StormTracker wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html


OMG, it's got an eye! :lol:

SoupBone you beat me to it! :D


cat 1 at least... :D

the way things went with hermine nothing would surprise me
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:57 am

It's had a pretty decent low-level vortex for the past 2-3 days, just has not been able to sustain any convection at the mid-upper levels. Dry air entrainment (which caused that eye-like feature to occur) coupled with just enough shear has been an issue so far.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:06 am

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