ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

OMG, it's got an eye!

This little system is a freak? A tornadic meso scale T.S.? LOL There's no way this "eye - like" feature remains through the day. If so, than this would be the fastest tropical spin up i've ever seen!! I'd think more likely to be a very fragile creature and one that might be gone as quick as it would have appeared to develop. Curious as to what NHC is thinking

[LarryWx]

Looks like to my untrained eyes that a swirl si trying to form near 17,3N 57 W at 1315 UTC but lacking of convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

OMG, it's got an eye!

This little system is a freak? A tornadic meso scale T.S.? LOL There's no way this "eye - like" feature remains through the day. If so, than this would be the fastest tropical spin up i've ever seen!! I'd think more likely to be a very fragile creature and one that might be gone as quick as it would have appeared to develop. Curious as to what NHC is thinking

This didn't develop as quickly as you may think. The CMC has been developing this for a number of days and it has been followed for three days as a surface low with good circulation in this now locked Pouch 32L thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284

[stormlover2013]

yeah and the cmc developed 92l for 5 straight days and we saw what happen on day 6, 7, 8, and 9 notta lol

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS initialized this very poorly. Clearly there is a LLC but the GFS has almost nothing at hour 6.

[drezee]

That is not a LLC. It is a MLC from the collapsed tower from this AM. Nothing to see until maybe tomorrow or beyond...

[LarryWx]

That is not a LLC. It is a MLC from the collapsed tower from this AM. Nothing to see until maybe tomorrow or beyond...

I respectfully disagree. I believe there has been a LLC at least for several days including when this post was made by abajan showing a visible loop:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118284#p2537273

Even the day before the NHC said this:

"An Atlantic Ocean 1012 mb low pressure center is near 13N45W."

[AutoPenalti]

Uh... Where did this come from?

EDIT: Silly me, I was looking at the wrong wave.

[LarryWx]

This looks to me like it has a pretty vigorous and tight LLC. Note the low clouds swirling into it just to the S of the center:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised if they task a recon for tomorrow if this continues organization trends

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Nederlander]

It is currently entering a very favorable environment for the next day or so. It will be in low shear and high SSTs. Any development chances after that will need the shear in the N. Caribbean to relax.

EDIT: There does look to be some dry air out ahead of it though, which could be one limiting factor over the next couple of days.

[Blown Away]

Looks like 93L will be steering the recurve train...

[StormTracker]

Looks like 93L will be steering the recurve train...

I hope he's a good driver!

[cycloneye]

An area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 275 miles east
of the northern Leeward Islands. Pressures remain high in the area,
and there are no signs of a surface circulation.During the next few
days, this system is expected to move toward the west-northwest
where conditions are not favorable for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[LarryWx]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

Now Mr. Avila says this in the 2 PM TWO:

An area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 275 miles east
of the northern Leeward Islands. Pressures remain high in the area,
and there are no signs of a surface circulation. During the next few
days, this system is expected to move toward the west-northwest
where conditions are not favorable for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

These seem to be a bit contradictory.

[abajan]

[AutoPenalti]

NHC should probably revise that. Btw, the potential track is pretty much useless because no model besides the CMC, which ironically is no longer developing this, has initialized correctly.

[O Town]

[jlauderdal]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

Now Mr. Avila says this in the 2 PM TWO:

An area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 275 miles east
of the northern Leeward Islands. Pressures remain high in the area,
and there are no signs of a surface circulation. During the next few
days, this system is expected to move toward the west-northwest
where conditions are not favorable for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

These seem to be a bit contradictory.

i bet he despised the fact he even had to write something on this system

[Hurricaneman]

this needs to be watched, we don't even know what the shear will be at 48 to 72hrs

[1900hurricane]

This morning's ASCAT pass was only a partial hit, but it didn't even show a hint of a closed circulation with 93L. Only a wave axis can be seen, and not a sharp one at that.