ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

There is a lot of mid-level shear around.

[LarryWx]

After looking at the loop several times, it looks like Julia has stalled for now near 30.4N, 76.2W. Where will this lady go next?

[Alyono]

if we dont see convection return soon, this will become a remnant low overnight

[Hurricaneman]

I would have to think we will see convection in the next few hours

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[wxman57]

Bones is stepping up to the podium...

[gatorcane]

Seems to continue to lose latitude

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Blown Away]

Bones is stepping up to the podium...

Seems like remnant low now... Can you explain why the 00z intensity models would show modest strengthening when it's clearly on life support??

[Hurricaneman]

The models have been garbage period heck even when it comes to motion right now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Blown Away]

Life support...

[Hurricaneman]

I think that convection is about to get going in the next hour or 2, may look much better by early morning either that or the intensity models are also garbage

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[LarryWx]

The spin, itself, still looks tight and vigorous like earlier. How long can it maintain itself without nearby convection? Also, might it take awhile to spin down if it does do that?
Also let' see what DMAX brings late tonight as it seemed to lead to an increase late last night. in addition, SST's are in the middle 80's.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deja vu all over again. Julia lost all its deep convection tonight
and now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds. Assuming
that the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of
convection develops near the center despite the strong westerly
shear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by
strong upper-level westerlies.

Given that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days
or so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the
shear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the
cyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is
expected to be a remnant low.

There has been no significant motion during the past day or so,
and basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in
very light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to
change, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling
around for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

From the 11 PM discussion...

Deja vu all over again.

[TheStormExpert]

...JULIA IS GOING NOWHERE FOR NOW AND PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN IN
SITU...

Die already!

[LarryWx]

...JULIA IS GOING NOWHERE FOR NOW AND PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN IN
SITU...

Die already!

Not so fast! Julia is a strong lady with a strong will to live. I can almost assure you that she won't go easily. And, no, don't call Dr. Kevorkian. That would be cheating!

[LarryWx]

While everyone is asleep, Julia has decided to put on some yellow clothes on her upper right side near DMAX, similar to late last night. So, there is some convection, though sheared, near the still vigorous looking center for the first time in a number of hours. I have the center near 30.1N, 76.3W about stationary. This may feed her enough to keep her going at least into tomorrow.

[AutoPenalti]

Reminds me a lot of Joaquin.






...except convection less.

[wxman57]

Not so fast! Julia is a strong lady with a strong will to live. I can almost assure you that she won't go easily. And, no, don't call Dr. Kevorkian. That would be cheating!

"Come here, Julia. Let me put you out of your misery."

[northjaxpro]

Well for what it's worth Julia did put on a few clothes overnight. There is some convection that is popping just a bit on the very Eastern side of the swirl so Julia still has a pulse for now. Also, Julia is absolutely at a grinding stall. She is not budging at all. How long will this continue we'll see but for now it is not quite ready for a Bones sighting yet.

[LarryWx]

Yeah, Jax, she's a fighter. She's "the little storm that could", the ultimate underdog. Will she end up an overachiever and surprise folks down the road or will she let Dr. Death take her away peacefully? Stay tuned, folks. She still seems to have a nice low level spin with some convection hanging on right on the east & NE side of the center as Jax said.