ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#661 Postby Fishing » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:25 am

Yeah she's still trying.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#662 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:42 am

LarryWx wrote::uarrow: Yeah, Jax, she's a fighter. She's "the little storm that could", the ultimate underdog. Will she end up an overachiever and surprise folks down the road or will she let Dr. Death take her away peacefully? Stay tuned, folks. She still seems to have a nice low level spin with some convection hanging on right on the east & NE side of the center as Jax said.


Well I can attest to you that Julia was no joke folks for a minimal tropical cyclone. She knocked out my power all night and I experienced the cyclone front and center as she came right over my locale with 35 mph sustained with gusts to nearly 50 mph this past Tuesday night and over 5 inches of rain.

She packed a good punch coming through here that is for sure.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#663 Postby Fishing » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:56 am

So here in Charleston (Mount Pleasant area) we didn't have much wind, however we received a good 5 almost 6 inches of rain. In comparison, Hermine (which closed the schools for a day) barely gave us any rain however the winds were pretty good. Seems any storm is gonna to result in different effects. Quite frankly I'll take these guys as opposed to the Hugo we sat thru so many years ago. Big big mistake , staying . We will evacuate next time we see anything over a cat 1 heading here.
I still see Julia trying to fire up but it's a battle out there .
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#664 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2016 9:49 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Convection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of
Julia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in
thin bands closer to the center. This is just enough to keep the
cyclone a tropical depression for this advisory. In the short term,
the vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and
the cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less. The
dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but
it is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take
advantage of the more favorable environment. Thus, the intensity
forecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours.

The depression is currently nearly stationary. A low- to mid-level
ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is
similar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.2N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 32.2N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#665 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2016 10:44 am

Maybe it is just me, but in looking at the satellite loops, this does not at all look like a storm that is dissipating. I think there is as much, if not more, convection right around the center than at anytime Thu or Fri. On top of that, we're headed away from DMAX.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#666 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:12 am

Somehow (I'm surprised) there is deep convection wrapping right over the center. Nothing like this has occurred since Wed. Julia's LLC is almost completely covered right now. Anyone else seeing this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#667 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:32 am

LarryWx wrote:Somehow (I'm surprised) there is deep convection wrapping right over the center. Nothing like this has occurred since Wed. Julia's LLC is almost completely covered right now. Anyone else seeing this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif


yes I noticed it too Larry.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#668 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 12:03 pm

Curious appearance. Coldest tops are now clearly co-located with Julia's center, albeit under ongoing shear. On water vapor one can clearly see the strong northerly flow over Florida becoming a bit more pronounced, along with a digging trough north of Julia that is seemingly digging further southwest. These two differing upper level flow mechanisms seem to be very slightly deflecting the strong westerly upper flow over Julia and may be causing a slight shift of upper level winds from the west, to the NNW. Still a very sheared environment but maybe a slight bit more anticyclonic?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#669 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2016 12:08 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Somehow (I'm surprised) there is deep convection wrapping right over the center. Nothing like this has occurred since Wed. Julia's LLC is almost completely covered right now. Anyone else seeing this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif


yes I noticed it too Larry.


I don't expect the convection to stay with the center but the point is that this is a marked change over the last few days. Watch Levi Cowan's video if you haven't yet:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... k-for-now/

At the time he did it a few hours ago, which was before this recent burst of strong convection, there were only some popup showers but he noted that they were happening with increasing frequency this morning. He said that this is a sign of the low levels increasing moisture due to sitting over the very warm ocean and that any letup in the shear might allow for convection to suddenly form around her.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#670 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 12:35 pm

I took another broader view of the Water Vapor from Nasa's site (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... pnUs3y.jpg), and while looping the image out to 20 frames could clearly see that a cut-off low south of W. Cuba is clearly moving briskly westward. This cut-off at the base of a weakness along the Eastern Seaboard was helping to funnel S.E. Conus strong upper level flow over Julia. With the cut-off moving briskly westward, the westerly flow coming across Florida/Georgia is now being deflected more southerly over Florida itself, thus leaving Julia in a temporarily less hostile upper level environment. According to the charts, this looks to continue for 12-24 hours. In fact, the 200mb conditions do become temporarily more anticyclonic just to the East of Florida, though Julia would seem to remain on the northern side of this feature and seemingly remaining under a sheared westerly flow in about 24 hours. Seems that its best conditions to better itself are right now through Sunday mid-day
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#671 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2016 12:54 pm

chaser1 wrote:I took another broader view of the Water Vapor from Nasa's site (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... pnUs3y.jpg), and while looping the image out to 20 frames could clearly see that a cut-off low south of W. Cuba is clearly moving briskly westward. This cut-off at the base of a weakness along the Eastern Seaboard was helping to funnel S.E. Conus strong upper level flow over Julia. With the cut-off moving briskly westward, the westerly flow coming across Florida/Georgia is now being deflected more southerly over Florida itself, thus leaving Julia in a temporarily less hostile upper level environment. According to the charts, this looks to continue for 12-24 hours. In fact, the 200mb conditions do become temporarily more anticyclonic just to the East of Florida, though Julia would seem to remain on the northern side of this feature and seemingly remaining under a sheared westerly flow in about 24 hours. Seems that its best conditions to better itself are right now through Sunday mid-day


Interesting. The models have been showing the 200 mb flow to shift from E to S today. I was wondering if this change of direction and location at the right end of the upper high would be less hostile even if the shear were still still strong. I will note that the 12Z GFS had the shear lightest at 2 PM today before getting stronger later today and then lighter again Sun PM.
Anyway, I look at this as a warning sign that moisture has increased and any future longer letup in shear may allow for a repeat burst of convection that next time may stick around and allow it to intensify as per what Levi said.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#672 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:06 pm

I'm thinking remnant low at 5pm. Small chance it regenerates might be mentioned...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#673 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:06 pm

It's the most wonderful time of the year here. The Newlyweds and Nearly Deads season. (Family's with children under school age and retired folks)
The water and ocean are the same temp (77).
Wonderful 4 ft waves.

But there's Julia giving us rip currents and red flag swimming.

Someone needs to put Julia out of her misery.

Last night I was writing her epitaph.

But no, someone just won't take her off life support.

It's time to pull the plug, okay! :roll:
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#674 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:31 pm

SeGaBob wrote:I'm thinking remnant low at 5pm. Small chance it regenerates might be mentioned...


I do not think it will be a Remnant Low AT 5 P.M. It is still being sheared, but just enough convection is popping up around the swirl to keep it classified as a depression for now.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#675 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:39 pm

OuterBanker wrote:It's the most wonderful time of the year here. The Newlyweds and Nearly Deads season. (Family's with children under school age and retired folks)
The water and ocean are the same temp (77).
Wonderful 4 ft waves.

But there's Julia giving us rip currents and red flag swimming.

Someone needs to put Julia out of her misery.

Last night I was writing her epitaph.

But no, someone just won't take her off life support.

It's time to pull the plug, okay! :roll:


Well if you can tell me, when exactly are the water and ocean different temperatures?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#676 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:52 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:It's the most wonderful time of the year here. The Newlyweds and Nearly Deads season. (Family's with children under school age and retired folks)
The water and ocean are the same temp (77).
Wonderful 4 ft waves.

But there's Julia giving us rip currents and red flag swimming.

Someone needs to put Julia out of her misery.

Last night I was writing her epitaph.

But no, someone just won't take her off life support.

It's time to pull the plug, okay! :roll:


Well if you can tell me, when exactly are the water and ocean different temperatures?


LOL, whoops. It was supposed to be the air and water temp.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#677 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:55 pm

Based on every one of the major 12Z op. model runs fwiw, Julia or whatever is left of her will be forced back SW and then W back into the SE US Wed-Thu of next week due to a strong high to its north then. So, she's apparently not going away for 4-5 days if this is to be believed. Will she be weak as the models suggest? Will she really have a window to get stronger tomorrow as Levi suggests? Way too much uncertainty with never a dull moment Julia.
I'm now noticing a large area of convection in the outer NE sector that is redeveloping steadily WSWard in the direction of the top of the storm. Will that later lead to renewed convection near the center?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#678 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:02 pm

I was about to ask about that "band" myself. :)
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#679 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2016 3:38 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Despite ongoing vertical wind shear, Julia continues to produce
enough convection to avoid decaying to a remnant low. It appears
that a small upper-level trough located just northwest of the
depression is providing a more favorable environment for convection
than anticipated earlier. The dynamical models forecast this
trough to move to the southeast of Julia during the next several
hours, leaving the cyclone in an area of stronger shear and
subsidence that should bring an end to the convective activity.
The only change in the intensity forecast was to add a 72-hour
point, as the GFS and ECMWF models now forecast Julia to persist as
a remnant low through that time.

Julia is now drifting northwestward. A low- to mid-level ridge
north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is
sifted a little west of the previous forecast based on a slight
westward shift in the guidance, and it lies near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.5N 76.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 31.5N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 32.2N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 32.7N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#680 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Sep 17, 2016 4:36 pm

Seems to be some convection popping in the east side of the center.
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