ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#681 Postby Fishing » Sat Sep 17, 2016 4:44 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Seems to be some convection popping in the east side of the center.

I'm seeing that as well . Of course I have a very untrained eye so just letting you know because the board is so quiet.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#682 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 17, 2016 9:28 pm

It was quite a treat driving home as she formed over the top of me. It was another half hour before she got her name. Sounds like she may come back for another visit. Crazy season so far and more to come!
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#683 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2016 10:29 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very
attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate
advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression
in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated
with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm
activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the
past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the
second option.

Strong upper-level northerly winds are expected to continue
affecting the circulation, and if the convection returns it will
quickly be removed from the center. Therefore, Julia is forecast
once again to become a remnant low soon and gradually decay.

Julia is drifting northwestward at about 3 kt embedded within very
light steering flow. Most of the global models keep a low meandering
over water off the southeast U.S. coast, and so does the NHC
forecast. Some global models actually regenerate the low, but given
the strong shear, this solution does not seem realistic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 30.6N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 30.9N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 32.5N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#684 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:52 am

What an impressive fighter Miss Julia has been. She's had an increase in convection near the center making it harder to track the center though it is still being heavily sheared to the south. Expect the shear to decrease to moderate levels on Sunday and into Sunday night. Per Levi Cowan, there might be a short window for it to get stronger then if convection develops near the center. Julia appears to be moving slowly NW but with wobbles.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#685 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:58 am

Julia looks much better than does Tropical Wave Karl
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#686 Postby rickybobby » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:14 am

LarryWx wrote:What an impressive fighter Miss Julia has been. She's had an increase in convection near the center making it harder to track the center though it is still being heavily sheared to the south. Expect the shear to decrease to moderate levels on Sunday and into Sunday night. Per Levi Cowan, there might be a short window for it to get stronger then if convection develops near the center. Julia appears to be moving slowly NW but with wobbles.


So this has no chance of coming back to Florida?
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#687 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:30 am

rickybobby wrote:
LarryWx wrote:What an impressive fighter Miss Julia has been. She's had an increase in convection near the center making it harder to track the center though it is still being heavily sheared to the south. Expect the shear to decrease to moderate levels on Sunday and into Sunday night. Per Levi Cowan, there might be a short window for it to get stronger then if convection develops near the center. Julia appears to be moving slowly NW but with wobbles.


So this has no chance of coming back to Florida?


This has been so erratic that I personally wouldn't rule anything out until it's gone altogether.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#688 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:24 am

Julia looks the best that it ever has
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#689 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:27 am

If this can maintain itself at least until the next ASCAT pass, I think it might actually get upgraded again.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#690 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:06 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Surprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback. Thunderstorm activity
has fired near and southeast of the center, with the cyclone looking
considerably better organized than any time in the last day or so.
The initial wind speed is kept at 25 kt in line with the TAFB
satellite classification.

The future of Julia looks less clear than it did yesterday. While
there is currently strong shear affecting the cyclone, this shear
is forecast to relax in about 24 hours as a mid- to upper-level
trough moves over the southeastern United States. Considering the
current appearance of Julia and the more favorable environment
ahead of it, Julia is no longer forecast to become a remnant low.
Instead, a more likely scenario is that Julia holds its own or
strengthens some while it moves slowly northward near the Gulf
Stream. It is best to be conservative with the intensity forecast at
this stage, since this overnight convective trend could be
misleading. Nonetheless, the intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, on the low side of the guidance near the LGEM model.

Julia has started moving north-northwestward overnight at about 4
kt. A slow motion toward the north is expected for the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves between a weak west Atlantic
subtropical ridge and the southeastern United States trough. The
model guidance has shifted northward near the North Carolina
coast, although the GFDL and ECMWF remain offshore. Given the
uncertainty and continuity constraints, it would be preferable to
wait another model cycle before making a larger northward change,
and hence the current forecast is on the southern side of the
guidance envelope. It would not be surprising if further northward
changes have to be made later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 31.3N 76.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 31.8N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 32.4N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 33.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 33.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#691 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:39 am

I agree with everyone that Julia is looking much better. Convection continues to build and is actually trying to fire closer to the center. Shear looks to be slightly lessening early this morning. I think if this trend continues, I do think there may be a bit brief window in which Julia may regain tropical storm status remarkably.

The cyclone is drifting very slowly northwest. Julia looks to meander in weak steering currents off the SE U.S coast for the next couple of days. The thinking is that a trough by mid-week will pick up what is left of Julia out to sea.But this cyclone has a mind of its own and we have to keep our eye on this system until.it has either dissipated for good or is finally off out to sea.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#692 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:45 am

Looks like it is finally starting to solve the dry air problem

Image

Actually some consensus to the lower outer banks

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#693 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:16 am

Also, intensity forecasts can be very challenging and this is no different in this situation. Julia drifting so slowly and environmental conditions seemingly becoming less hostile with time, well you wonder how much strengthening could happen the next couple of days. Julia has been one very interesting tropical cyclone to track that is for sure.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#694 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:35 am

The forecast for Julia continues to pose a significant challenge. If you look at the current RAOBs over NC, they indicate 30-40 knots of westerly flow at 300 mb as the trough to the northwest has split. This means that the ridge over western SC and northern GA will strengthen and link up with the ridge over the western Atlantic. I don't see this going north into westerly winds aloft. Sorry. With this in mind, I think in the upcoming model cycles you are going to see a significant southwestward shift in the guidance. I think folks from south FL through NC should continue to monitor this evolving situation.

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#695 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:40 am

1) Note how much more convection there is vs what the 6Z GFS prog for 8AM EDT says she'd have:

6Z GFS progged color coded IR simulation for 8AM EDT:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_2.png

Current color coded IR satellite pic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

2) Remember what Levi Cowan said in his video yesterday about it moistening up and its ability to suddenly gain convection around the center if the shear let's up, which he and models warned about for today? Watch out for actual strengthening potential today based on model consensus, which actually has shear about to lighten up to no higher than moderate starting at anytime now and staying only moderate to light much of the next 24 hours or so.

Levi's Saturday video (watch first few minutes):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vuDUvvJ5q ... Amfy5aoGXg
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#696 Postby O Town » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:46 am

Looks like the center exposed again to the the north of convection.

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#697 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:48 am

:uarrow: Cane Freak and Larry, good posts and observations by each of you. I think the ridge is building north of Julia as well CaneFreak. I think all bets aare off the table with Julia at this juncture. Everyone along with the SE US coastline should.keep a watch on this cyclone. What an interesting storm. She does not want to leave the scene folks seemingly folks, uh?
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#698 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:50 am

Yes and note the westerly movement of the center! Not north. Clearly a ridge building over NC.

O Town wrote:Looks like the center exposed again to the the north of convection.

Image
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#699 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:57 am

Excellent observations, northjax and canefreak!

By looking at the still vis pic with latitude/longitude as of 8:15 AM EDT, one can plainly see that the now naked center is clearly right at 31.8N, 77.1W. That is almost exactly where the NHC has it as of 1800Z (2PM EDT), which isn't for almost another 6 hours!!
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#700 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:58 am

:uarrow: Also, you can see the swirl exposed again by northwest shear. Still battling shear, but the shear has lessened just a bit the past 24 hours. Convection is still developing closer to the circulation center.

There may be a slight west tug or wobble, but can not really know that for certain until a few more frames are loaded on imagery.
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