ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#701 Postby JaxGator » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:01 am

'CaneFreak wrote:Yes and note the westerly movement of the center! Not north. Clearly a ridge building over NC.

O Town wrote:Looks like the center exposed again to the the north of convection.

Image


That doesn't look good if that's the case. The ridge (or ridges) has been persistent summer log with only a few breaks here and there. Hopefully it doesn't affect Karl'a forecast either. Julia though is very unique in its own right. It's been fun to track and experience this cyclone.
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Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016 , Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017.


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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#702 Postby Fishing » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:14 am

This entire year has been interesting. Even without a big category story maker coming to fruition I can't help to think that this is the type of year that is going to present many a new interest into the field of meteorology for our young people. This board I am sure is instrumental in that as well. I'm loving it. Reminds me of 20 some years ago tracking, Thank you to the frequent posters explaining what is happening. Julia seems to be getting closer to us here in Charleston but are skies are just as blue as they can be this morning.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#703 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:46 am

The latest vis pics suggest to me that she's stopped moving again and may be at least temporarily weakening. The low level swirl looks like it MAY now be opening up! This may be a crucial time coming up as the day wears on due to progged lower shear that would itself be favorable for strengthening if Julia is still intact as a LLC.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#704 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:58 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

After an early morning burst of deep convection, strong northerly
shear and dry mid-level air have significantly weakened the
convection, leaving behind only shallow convection about 50-60 nmi
east through southwest of the now fully exposed low-level
circulation center. The initial intensity is being held at 25 kt,
which could be a little conservative, based on a TAFB satellite
classification of T1.5/25 kt.

Julia has been drifting westward the past several hours, but a slow
north-northwestward or northward motion is expected begin later
today. This general motion is forecast to continue into Tuesday as a
strong shortwave trough currently over the central United States
moves quickly eastward, creating increasing southerly to
southwesterly flow over the Carolinas. There are some notable
differences between the models with the ECMWF forecasting Julia to
weaken into a shallow remnant low and drift southwestward by 72
hours, whereas the remainder of the global and regional models
maintain a somewhat deeper cyclone and lift it out poleward in the
deeper steering flow ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough.
The NHC forecast track leans toward the model consensus and keeps
Julia a little stronger and deeper, taking the cyclone northward and
near the coast of North Carolina by 48 hours. However, rapid
weakening is likely by 72 hours due to strong southwesterly shear,
leaving Julia as a remnant low near or over the coastal regions of
eastern North Carolina.

The intensity forecast is a little tricky due to the rapidly
decreasing shear conditions that the models are forecasting to occur
during the next 24 hours or so. The current 25-30 kt of northerly
vertical wind shear is expected to decrease to 10-15 kt from the
southwest by Monday morning, which would support a repeat of strong
convective development and spinup of the vortex, similar to what
occurred overnight, especially since Julia will be moving over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream at that time. The intensity
forecast is identical to the previous advisory and remains on the
low side of the guidance near the LGEM model. However, due to the
possibility of the cyclone being a little stronger than forecast,
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been tentatively tasked
to investigate Julia tomorrow afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 31.8N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 32.5N 77.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 33.4N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 33.8N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 34.2N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 34.5N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#705 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:21 am

I feel for the forecasters on this one. They are going to take it on the chin for this storm (racking up a lot of error points). You hate to go against all of the model guidance that brings this north but at the same time, you have to look at the flow aloft which is clearly westerly across the Appalachians. The storm is not going north. We've seen this same upper level pattern for days and the storm didn't move north. Even the flow over the TN Valley is west to east. Oh well. :P
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#706 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:37 am

:uarrow: Good point made. It really looked like the strong convection to its east kept sucking it toward it to the east. It is fascinating that the best models like the Euro repeatedly kept missing this! Julia has been one unforecastable girl.

One thought about the current forecasted northerly movement: for the next two days or so, I could see some northerly or NNW movement occurring due to the low level southerly or SSE flow on the west side of the high to the ENE of it. With this now just being a low level naked swirl, shouldn't it be steered more by the lower levels? Also, I think the 500 mb flow may be similarly southerly or from the SSE.

On another note, she looks really weak now, maybe the weakest since she was named. Barring convection re-firing up near the center later today or this evening, Bones may be called into duty.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#707 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:44 am

Good question. It looks like it is currently located along the "axis of dilatation" where the low level flow splits from southerly/southeasterly to northerly and northwesterly. It is all going to depend on how quick this ridge axis forming east of the Appalachians develops and whether it gets on top of it quick enough I guess. All a matter of timing. It will be tricky. Thanks for prodding the cow that doesn't want to budge :lol:

LarryWx wrote::uarrow: Good point made. It really looked like the strong convection to its east kept sucking it toward it to the east. It is fascinating that the best models like the Euro repeatedly kept missing this! Julia has been one unforecastable girl.

One thought about the current forecasted northerly movement: for the next two days or so, I could see some northerly or NNW movement occurring due to the low level southerly or SSE flow on the west side of the high to the ENE of it. With this now just being a low level naked swirl, shouldn't it be steered more by the lower levels? Also, I think the 500 mb flow may be similarly southerly or from the SSE.

On another note, she looks really weak now, maybe the weakest since she was named.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#708 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:55 am

Thanks, Freak!

The latest visible pic (11:15 AM EDT) show she's been wobbling back to the WNW/W for the last hour or so. I'm assuming that is just a wobble. Regardless of whether or not it actually is just a wobble, she's now all of the way west to 77.4 W, which is west of all of the latest NHC track forecast points. Compare that to the NHC, which has her moving mainly northerly. I have her near 32.0N, 77.4W as of 11:15 AM EDT.

Update: Still moving W and is at 32.0N, 77.5W as of 11:45 AM EDT. Slightly more moisture around the center now though no convection yet.

Update: Still moving W and is at 32.0N, 77.6W as of 12:15 PM EDT. So, she has moved west for the 2 hours since the latest pics were available for the NHC 11AM update. They had her moving N.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 18, 2016 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#709 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 18, 2016 11:46 am

I have to admit it looked good earlier, but I still think it will degenerate into a remnant low.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#710 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 11:52 am

Wow. Take a look at this loop. This is very interesting.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/nam_wbg.html
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#711 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:12 pm

Looks like this girl is about to lose her swag :lol:
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#712 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:18 pm

It's done if no more convection forms by 11pm.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#713 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:30 pm

This storm is so hilarious. I am literally laughing at my computer. I'm glad I am not in public because people would think I am crazy or something. LOL. I love storms that defy the forecast and this one has done that 100 times over. The 2016 hurricane season will never be forgotten. Wow. This is epic.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#714 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:46 pm

As of 2:15 PM EDT, she is near 32.1N, 77.8W and has been moving WNW at ~12 mph for the last 4 hours since just before the NHC put out its 11 AM track though she looks like she may be turning more NW now. Here's their projected track, which never gets her west of 77.3W:

INIT 18/1500Z 31.8N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 32.5N 77.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 33.4N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 33.8N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 34.2N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 34.5N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-T

She still has a pretty good circulation. Watch to see whether or not convection breaks out around the center. If it does and with the progged sharply lowering shear through tonight to favorable levels near 5 knots along with some upper diffluence and SST's near 84F, there is a possibility she would start to strengthen rather suddenly by tonight.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#715 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:47 pm

It's almost at 78W and still no convection...will run out of time I bet.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#716 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:49 pm

She's now at 32.2 N 78.0 W. That's averaging WNW as you said. This is a very weak front that is coming. I am wondering if this front makes it across the mountains without dying first. This is going to be a fun evening to track.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#717 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:20 pm

It appears per the 12Z GFS that the further SW it stays (say if it keeps going WNW instead of turning NW or N), it will encounter the lightest shear over the next 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#718 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Julia's low-level circulation has continued to improve despite the
lack of organized deep convection near the well-defined center.
However, some tight curved banding features consisting of shallow to
moderate convection have developed within 100 nmi of the center
during the past few hours, a hint that the mid-level moisture is
beginning to increase. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on
on a TAFB intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt, and a 1535Z ASCAT pass
that showed some surface winds near 25 kt just north of the center.

Julia is moving northwestward or 330/06 kt. The cyclone is forecast
to slow down and gradually turn toward the north-northwest and north
later tonight. A northward motion is then expected to persist, ahead
of a strong shortwave trough that is forecast to move toward the
western Carolinas, until Julia moves near or just onshore the the
southeastern coast of North Carolina on Tuesday. After that time,
it is uncertain whether or not a weakening Julia will lift out to
the northeast and merge with a frontal boundary, or drift
southwestward as a remnant low. Regardless of the status of Julia by
72 hours, the models are in good agreement that the system will not
be a tropical cyclone at that time or thereafter due to strong
vertical wind shear and land interaction. The official track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which is a compromise
of the various global and regional model solutions.

Julia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and
Monday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken
significantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more
anticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide
with the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the
time when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C.
Buoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface
dew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the
atmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for
regeneration of convection near the center later tonight. By Monday
afternoon and evening, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave trough should induce steady weakening,
which is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches the coast
of North Carolina. The intensity forecast remains unchanged is a
little below the consensus model IVCN. However, due to the
possibility that Julia could be a little stronger than currently
expected, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
tentatively been tasked to investigate the cyclone Monday afternoon.

The primary threat from Julia will be locally heavy rainfall from
eastern North Carolina northward to the Mid-Atlantic states and
the northeastern U.S. when moisture from the cyclone, or its
remnants, will interact with an approaching frontal system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 32.3N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 33.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 34.0N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z 34.9N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#719 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:41 pm

Interesting discussion at 5pm.
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#720 Postby snowpocalypse » Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:18 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Interesting discussion at 5pm.


Yes, very. Will be interesting to see what comes of the more favorable conditions / what she looks like in the morning.
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