ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1449
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#721 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:13 pm

My biggest surprise was the forward motion. Does anyone see this going north-northwest? It is heading due west on my visible imagery unless I need my eyes checked :P
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#722 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:27 pm

:uarrow: Yes, it is back to moving due west and at around 10 knots, not just 6 knots, for now. As of 5:45PM, I have it at 32.2N, 78.3W. The longer it maintains an either W or WNW motion, the quicker the shear will drop off this evening to near 5 knots IF the 12Z GFS is accurate as there still is strong shear just to the NE.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1449
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#723 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:42 pm

OK thanks. Yeah I am measuring either west or west-northwest but not north-northwest. Maybe Stewart was seeing something different. No biggie.

LarryWx wrote::uarrow: Yes, it is back to moving due west and at around 10 knots, not just 6 knots, for now. As of 5:45PM, I have it at 32.2N, 78.3W. The longer it maintains an either W or WNW motion, the quicker the shear will drop off this evening to near 5 knots IF the 12Z GFS is accurate as there still is strong shear just to the NE.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#724 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:02 pm

The center of the weak vortex should be on the coast near Charleston in a few hours. It's dead.
2 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#725 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:The center of the weak vortex should be on the coast near Charleston in a few hours. It's dead.


I won't bet against that, but shear is about to drop off sharply and be that way for a good 12 hours or so, she'll continue to be over warm water, and DMAX will coincide with this later tonight. Even if she went all of the way to CHS, that wouldn't happen til late tonight..say 3 AM or later.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Fishing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 50
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:53 am
Location: Mount Pleasant, SC

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#726 Postby Fishing » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:27 pm

Well I'm in Charleston so I'll let y'all know if one of our lawn chairs gets blown over. I was outside about 10 minutes ago and felt a breeze on my face. lol.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18122
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#727 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:40 pm

There is zero low-level convergence. No way Julia qualifies as a tropical depression. It's a remnant low in a high-shear environment. I wouldn't bet on it coming back.
3 likes   

SeGaBob

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#728 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:43 pm

Wherever it makes "landfall" probably won't even notice it.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#729 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:There is zero low-level convergence. No way Julia qualifies as a tropical depression. It's a remnant low in a high-shear environment. I wouldn't bet on it coming back.


Normally, I wouldn't bet against 57 and I sure won't in this case. You want him in your corner. When he brings Bones out, you know it is over for a tropical system. So, 57 will quite likely be right. However, because I have a little concern about the shear dropping so much over warm water, I won't bet the farm against a last minute development. Besides, it gives us something to talk about and he hasn't quite brought out Bones although I bet he's thinking about doing just that in the not too distant future.

Update: our special little lady still isn't doing anything. Time is running out but there's still some time. It is hard to decipher movement since the LLC isn't as distinct as it was the last few days. But I think she may have turned NW and slowed.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: JULIA - Advisories

#730 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:42 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Strong shear and dry mid-level air have continued to take a toll on
Julia today. The cyclone has become an exposed swirl of low clouds
devoid of significant deep convection for more than 12 hours. Based
on this, Julia is being designated a post-tropical remnant low, and
this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial
wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is based on the earlier ASCAT
data, but this could be generous. The cyclone may produce some
disorganized thunderstorms during the overnight convective maximum
period, but increasing southwesterly shear on Monday should limit
any organization or persistence of the activity. The low should
gradually spin down and dissipate in a couple of days.

Julia is moving northwestward at about 6 kt. A turn toward the
north is expected overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving into
the southeastern United States. After that time, the remnant low
is forecast to meander over eastern North Carolina until
dissipation occurs.

Moisture from the remnants of Julia are expected to interact
with a frontal boundary moving into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
United States. This is likely to produce local heavy rainfall from
eastern North Carolina northward to the northeastern U.S. during
the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.2N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/1200Z 33.2N 78.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 34.4N 77.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 34.9N 77.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 35.1N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

SeGaBob

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#731 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:42 pm

Julia is done.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#732 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:44 pm

...JULIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 78.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#733 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:03 pm

SeGaBob wrote:Julia is done.


Wouldn't it be something if she were to suddenly get more convection and strengthen later tonight after being downgraded to a remnant low? Odds of that low but not close to zero imo. I'll be up watching her for a few more hours. It has become a regular ritual for me the last 10+ days. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SouthernBreeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 166
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#734 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:18 pm

Actually had a pretty good shower a little while ago with even a slight rumble of thunder, here at the coastal NC/SC line
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#735 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:03 am

Make no bones about it, she's dead as no convection appeared near the center at DMAX overnight when shear was supposedly very light. I'm saying this despite her center still being offshore about 100 miles SSE of the SC/NC border moving NNE. Julia was quite the interesting experience from a tracking perspective!
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1449
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#736 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:04 am

I think Julia may have one more trick up her sleeve. You better watch her. She'll come back to life and bite you ;-)

No but seriously it looks like it is at least jogging eastward right now. It'll be interesting to see what happens after the trough leaves and the ridge builds back in.
1 likes   

SouthernBreeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 166
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#737 Postby SouthernBreeze » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:18 am

Extremely loud long thunder rumbles from out over the ocean now, rattling the walls & vibrating the floor
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1474
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#738 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:19 am

I like the way it never did what a model or forecaster said it would. Even now it is headed out to sea when the final forecast at 11pm had it dissipating over NC.
3 likes   

User avatar
Fishing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 50
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:53 am
Location: Mount Pleasant, SC

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#739 Postby Fishing » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:44 am

Shes been fun to track. Our ocean looks cool this morning. Just got back from my walk. I'd post a picture but really don't know how on here. So onto watching Karl and then perhaps Lisa. The season is still young (ish).
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#740 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:18 am

'CaneFreak wrote:I think Julia may have one more trick up her sleeve. You better watch her. She'll come back to life and bite you ;-)

No but seriously it looks like it is at least jogging eastward right now. It'll be interesting to see what happens after the trough leaves and the ridge builds back in.


When I made my "no bones about it, she's dead" post only a little over three hours ago, there was no convection nearby and she was moving NNE. Now all of the sudden there's the most convection there has been near her in over 24 hours, which is just to the south, and she's changed direction to just east of north only up to near 32.9N, 77.4W, as of the 10:45 AM pic. I'm still going with "she's dead" for now but no 0Z/6Z major operational model had her moving OTS now. They all had her going harmlessly into NC as a very weak low and not allowing for regeneration after runs from just a couple of days earlier all having her stay OTS and then getting caught beneath the new ridge and forced back SW as a surface entity.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests