ATL: JULIA - Models

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ATL: JULIA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:30 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#2 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:58 am

I don't see any of the major models developing this as of 00/06Z today's runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#3 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:29 am

ironically, now that it is an invest, the (12Z) CMC for the first time in several days no longer likes this for development into a TC. :lol: Keep in mind, however, that it was initialized as next to nothing. It is going to be kind of hard to get a TC to develop on a model from something with no LLC initialization. There has been a LLC for at least 3 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:27 pm

The 12zEuro seems to have 93L right near Daytona Beach at 120hrs seems to try to develop this around 96hrs. I wonder if this could become more in the Bahamas than many are thinking

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#5 Postby StormHunter72 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:34 pm

Fish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:36 pm

StormHunter72 wrote:Fish


You're looking at the wave at 35W that isn't 93L. 93L is at 57W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#7 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:41 pm

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18z... What is the TAB?

Image
18z... Seems most intensity models never seen a system they didn't like... 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#8 Postby rockyman » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:44 pm

After "landfall" in NE Florida, the 12z Euro turns the system almost due west. We can infer that a high pressure will be building to its north in the long range. As always, the ultimate path of the system will come down to timing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#9 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:45 pm

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12z Euro... Landfalls a peanut into NE Florida in 5 days... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#10 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zEuro seems to have 93L right near Daytona Beach at 120hrs seems to try to develop this around 96hrs. I wonder if this could become more in the Bahamas than many are thinking


Agreed. The non-CMC models have been underplaying this imo and they aren't initializing it well. Even with that underplaying, the 12Z Euro is showing a sfc low first start forming from it Sat night in the Bahamas and is the first run showing a surface low from 93L crossing land (Bahamas/FL). By the way, on runs from yesterday/TUE, the Euro was already showing 850 vorticity from 93L getting to the SE CONUS next week.
This definitely needs to be watched as it could turn out to be a sneaky problem for the Bahamas/SE CONUS next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#11 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:49 pm

not a professional just my opinion just a good soaking!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#12 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:06 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z... What is the TAB?


18z... Seems most intensity models never seen a system they didn't like... 8-)


I believe it is some kind of Trajectory model. Like the BAM model, it is run with 3 variants (shallow, medium and deep layers)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#13 Postby AJC3 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:11 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Blown Away wrote:18z... What is the TAB?


18z... Seems most intensity models never seen a system they didn't like... 8-)


I believe it is some kind of Trajectory model. Like the BAM model, it is run with 3 variants (shallow, medium and deep layers)


Yup. It's the "Trajectory And Beta" model, as opposed to the Beta and Advection Model (BAM) that you referenced.

I can't find any official reference to it on the NHC model description page. The only references you get if you Google it are from other pages like...

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?page=models
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... age=models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#14 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:18 pm

The UKMET tries to start development as it moves into the NE coast of Florida:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#15 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:49 pm

Once again, the GFS (18Z) is initializing 93L as almost nothing at the surface. I wonder if there have been any recent ship or buoy reports from the area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#16 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:48 pm

Well, the CMC is back to liking this. It starts to become a closed surface low at only hour 36 several hundred miles north of PR and it becomes a hurricane that grazes NC on Wed. 9/14 before turning right and going OTS. The 0Z GFS, like prior runs, doesn't develop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#17 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:13 am

The 00z GFS favors ex-92L. The vorticity of 93L is stretched out and being absorbed by 92L at 72 hours (red line to indicate 93L)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#18 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:28 am

Interestingly, the 0Z Euro is the 2nd Euro run in a row that kind of likes 93L for FL with its 850 my vorticity moving to Jacksonville at hour 120 (9/14) though it has no closed surface low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#19 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:31 am

Looks like it has a closed low at 48 hours on the 00z ECMWF before conditions deteriorate and 93L weakens:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#20 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 09, 2016 1:36 am

For what it's worth, 00z CMC has an organized system making landfall near the Outer Banks:

Image

00z UKMET has no development.
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